vacanechaser wrote:StarmanHDB wrote:weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...
A). One strong early season tropical storm on its way to becomming a hurricane really doesn't "prove" anything.
B). If the storm sticks to the plan as set by the latest forecast models and professional meteorologists, Arthur definitely will not be "fun" for anybody remotely near its track.
Just sayin....
some of you take this seriously like you should.. however, someone making such a statement doesnt always mean they are asking for or wishing for death and destruction.. i think some of the off putting comments here at times can be a bit much.. its not always necessary.. JMO.. seems like some just wait to jump on folks..
when I read I the first time, I automatically took it as sarcasm. I guess if he put the rolls eye emoticon it would hv been more clear. I'm surprised someone misunderstood it. We are getting strong TS here west coast fl from Arthur. Clouds were weird that only TS's form.
Jesse V. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team
ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: Re:
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NOAA lowest pressure=984.5 mbs.
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hurricanes1234
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Do you all think it will be upgraded to hurricane status at the intermediate advisory coming up soon?
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TheAustinMan
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Delete (my earlier post) and this one
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.
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vacanechaser
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:NOAA lowest pressure=984.5 mbs.
No way....wow.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Here is the NOAA pass with the 984.5 lowest pressure.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
URNT12 KNHC 022333
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 02/23:11:40Z
B. 30 deg 07 min N
079 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. 54 kt
E. 235 deg 10 nm
F. 321 deg 55 kt
G. 235 deg 10 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 16 C / 1520 m
J. 21 C / 1509 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. Closed
M. C32
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF301 0601A ARTHUR OB 20
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 151 / 25 NM 21:37:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT 049 / 22 NM 23:18:50Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 115 / 4 KT
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 02/23:11:40Z
B. 30 deg 07 min N
079 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. 54 kt
E. 235 deg 10 nm
F. 321 deg 55 kt
G. 235 deg 10 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 16 C / 1520 m
J. 21 C / 1509 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. Closed
M. C32
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF301 0601A ARTHUR OB 20
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 151 / 25 NM 21:37:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT 049 / 22 NM 23:18:50Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 115 / 4 KT
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got ants?
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Just noticed the 5:00pm NHC update now has softened its 24-36 hour hurricane prediction to "it will become a hurricane tonite, or tomorrow"
Who wants to bet it will be a hurricane at the 8:00pm update? I say it will...
Who wants to bet it will be a hurricane at the 8:00pm update? I say it will...
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hurricanes1234
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Re:
got ants? wrote:Just noticed the 5:00pm NHC update now has softened its 24-36 hour hurricane prediction to "it will become a hurricane tonite, or tomorrow"
Who wants to bet it will be a hurricane at the 8:00pm update? I say it will...
Personally, I think they'll upgrade it to 65 knots at 8:00 then 70 knots at 11:00 if trends continue.
Not official (see below).
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Arthur may have already moved away from the Gulf Stream and a reduction of a few degrees less in water temp would slow its strengthening - some of water temps in that area are just above 80 so just at the minimum of water temp needed to support a hurricane...
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheStormExpert
Re:
got ants? wrote:Just noticed the 5:00pm NHC update now has softened its 24-36 hour hurricane prediction to "it will become a hurricane tonite, or tomorrow"
Who wants to bet it will be a hurricane at the 8:00pm update? I say it will...
Odds are more favoring Yes than No IMO.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:got ants? wrote:Just noticed the 5:00pm NHC update now has softened its 24-36 hour hurricane prediction to "it will become a hurricane tonite, or tomorrow"
Who wants to bet it will be a hurricane at the 8:00pm update? I say it will...
Personally, I think they'll upgrade it to 65 knots at 8:00 then 70 knots at 11:00 if trends continue.
Not official (see below).
yeah there plenty of obs to support a blend of SFMR and FL for a upgrade to 65kt .. will they do it is the question.
there are enough obs in the NE quad alone.. its the predominate stronger quad all day..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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vacanechaser
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Re:
Frank2 wrote:Arthur may have moved away from the Gulfstream and a reduction of a few degrees less in water temp would slow its strengthening - some of water temps in that area are just above 80 so just at the minimum of water temp needed to support a hurricane...
Lol.. You do this every year.. Seen 81 degree temps support cat 2. And not to mention, it's got arms over the Gulf Stream.. That will be more than enough.
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re:
Frank2 wrote:Arthur may have moved away from the Gulfstream and a reduction of a few degrees less in water temp would slow its strengthening - some of water temps in that area are just above 80 so just at the minimum of water temp needed to support a hurricane...
I can't see water temperature being a problem at all as far as intensification goes.
With that being said, considering just how slowly this thing is intensifying, unless things change soon any chance of a category 2 or higher is looking slimmer by the hour.
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Re: Re:
Time_Zone wrote:Frank2 wrote:Arthur may have moved away from the Gulfstream and a reduction of a few degrees less in water temp would slow its strengthening - some of water temps in that area are just above 80 so just at the minimum of water temp needed to support a hurricane...
I can't see water temperature being a problem at all as far as intensification goes.
With that being said, considering just how slowly this thing is intensifying, unless things change soon any chance of a category 2 or higher is looking slimmer by the hour.
tomorrow was always expected to be the day of significant intensification
I actually think, cat 3 cannot be ruled out
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LSU2001
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HYbridstorm,
Not to derail the thread at all but I wanted to thank you for your post and agree with you. Living here in South Louisiana I have seen my share of storms and I grew up in the aftermath of Camile on the MS. Gulf coast. 2005 forever changed me when it comes to storms. I still get excited about watching and tracking and discussing the storms but I will never look at a landfalling storm of any strength the same way again. So Thanks again
Tim
Not to derail the thread at all but I wanted to thank you for your post and agree with you. Living here in South Louisiana I have seen my share of storms and I grew up in the aftermath of Camile on the MS. Gulf coast. 2005 forever changed me when it comes to storms. I still get excited about watching and tracking and discussing the storms but I will never look at a landfalling storm of any strength the same way again. So Thanks again
Tim
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Same as folks here who are people I disagree with - don't get me started...
Many papers have been written about 28C and higher being needed for development above and beyond a certain threshold - that temp isn't there right now...
Frank
Many papers have been written about 28C and higher being needed for development above and beyond a certain threshold - that temp isn't there right now...
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:58 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Good steady inflow wind down here from West. Small band with showers and lightning.
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