EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Here's the magical shear again.

It's reminding me a bit of Karina and what it was doing the first time around.

I would not get so pessimistic though.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 041154
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

...NORBERT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 110.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane4867]

TXPZ21 KNES 041230
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORBERT)

B. 04/1200Z

C. 20.7N

D. 110.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS JUST FORMED AND EYE IN IR AND TRMM DATA SHOWED
EYE BACK AT 0921Z. DT IS 5.0 BASED ON BLACK CLOUD FILLED EYE SURROUNDED
BY WHITE. FT HELD TO 4.5 BASED ON CONSTRAINT OF INCREASE OF 1.0 OVER
06HRS. PAT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/0921Z 20.2N 110.1W TMI


...SWANSON

[supercane4867]

Hard to imagine the solid eyewall on microwave imagery is actually displaced from the LLCC as mentioned in Beven's discussion
I see an eye is trying to appear on IR now, maybe shear is not that big of a problem after all

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.6mb/ 74.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.7

Center Temp : -62.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[supercane4867]

12z CIMSS analysis shows shear rapidly decreasing over the storm as anticyclone relocates closer to its center

[supercane4867]

Up to 75kt

EP, 14, 2014090412, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1102W, 75, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1005, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[WeatherGuesser]

5 day cone shows it s a depression Tuesday, but still off Baja south of the border. Still not sure what CA will get.

[tailgater]

The Media is gonna go wild over this if it comes to be. a Tropical system near the coast of southern California.

[WeatherGuesser]

Those things look like Warhols or Picassos. Make no sense to me at all. All I see is a cartoon cat with a weird sneer.

[curtadams]

Closed non-frontal low meaning scattered pop up thunderstorms or more of a steady consistent rain?

On the very rare occasions I've seen remnant moisture get here, the result has been a significant intensification of the monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon. I also see scattered thunderstorms for cut-off lows, except then the thunderstorms are not so much tied to afternoon heating.

The NHC is predicting it'll be post-tropical long before it gets here, so I don't think this will break the pattern.

[tropicwatch]

Will need someone to takeover on recon. Have to go for awhile.

[supercane4867]

The advisory intensity of 75kt seems to be a good estimate based on what recon found so far

[CrazyC83]

Recon also suggests pressure around 969. But agreed 75 kt seems reasonable.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 110.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[NDG]

The Media is gonna go wild over this if it comes to be. a Tropical system near the coast of southern California.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp36.png

As you can see the GFS is being the outlier with intensity, going with the consensus Norbert should be a remnant low pressure by the time it reaches So Cal, if it reaches it at all. We may even see the mid level energy reach So Cal while the low level pressure stay behind and never reach them.
Is best to go with the official NHC forecast at this time.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042057
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

Norbert has changed little on satellite images today, with the
central dense overcast remaining fairly solid, and only faint hints
of an eye. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found
maximum 700 mb winds of 84 kt, with peak SFMR values of 78 kt. These
data support an initial intensity of 80 kt for this advisory, which
happen to correspond well to a blend of all the currently available
Dvorak estimates.

The hurricane is probably near its peak intensity since it will soon
move over somewhat cooler SSTs and become more influenced by drier
stable air from the subtropical eastern Pacific waters. Model
guidance is in fairly good agreement on the cyclone gradually losing
strength over the next few days, and little change has been made to
the previous forecast, which remains close to the model consensus.
The cyclone is expected to transition into a remnant low in about 4
days when it moves over waters cooler than 24C.

Norbert is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. A mid-level ridge is
expected to persist over northwestern Mexico, keeping Norbert on the
same general course during the next few days. Model guidance has
shifted a bit closer to the southern Baja California peninsula
during the first couple of days, but all of the guidance keeps the
center a relatively safe distance offshore. Thereafter, the key to
the long range forecast appears to be how much ridging rebuilds in
over northwestern Mexico in the wake of a weak shortwave. The ECMWF
and the UKMET have a stronger ridge, which keeps Norbert, or its
remnants, farther offshore of southern California. The GFS-based
guidance moves Norbert closer to northwestern Mexico or southern
California, mostly due to a weaker ridge. The dynamical model
consensus has changed little during the past few cycles, so I have
elected to keep the previous forecast almost the same at days 4-5,
which is just a bit south of the latest consensus aids.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.2N 110.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.9N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 24.8N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 28.1N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

I think it's peaked. The cloud pattern is starting to look a little worse and the eye is now less defined in my opinion.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think it's peaked. The cloud pattern is starting to look a little worse and the eye is now less defined in my opinion.

It has actually improved. Don't get pessimistic, this ain't 2013!

[Yellow Evan]

I think it's peaked. The cloud pattern is starting to look a little worse and the eye is now less defined in my opinion.

It has actually improved. Don't get pessimistic, this ain't 2013!

Agreed. I'd give it another 6-12 hours.