ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

I'm calling it. Not only will Edouard will become the season's first major, it will become a Cat 4.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

Convection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The
cloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair
toward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50
kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in
combination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard,
should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The
intensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone's motion is being controlled by
the subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge
is a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on
a west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3
days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move
eastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-
model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the
cyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several
model cycles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 22.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 27.6N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 31.0N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 36.0N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[hurricanes1234]

I'm calling it. Not only will Edouard will become the season's first major, it will become a Cat 4.

Category 4? I don't think so.

[cycloneye]

Eye feature!

[Hammy]

Looks like it could become a hurricane as early as tonight, though it's extremely doubtful that it'll strengthen much beyond a mid-range Cat 1 as the convection is tending to be fairly shallow overall and dry air is being sucked into the system on the eastern side.

[supercane4867]

EDOUARD 06L T4.0/4.0 13/2345Z Atlantic

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Forgot to attach a graphic.

Edouard may have the best shot at becoming a major hurricane this season. Although there still some signs of wind shear, the environment is steadily becoming more favorable as Edouard moves west-northwestward, and we should see a huge anticyclone balloon atop the cyclone over the coming days. Its best prospects for intensification will likely come when it's recurving east of Bermuda, when it will be in a favorable juxtaposition to the jet stream to its north (which should enhance upper-level divergence and provide a nice poleward outflow jet). Also, an upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas should also provide good "breathing" for the storm. The 12z GFS brings this down to 967mb, while the 12z ECMWF brings this down to 955mb.

[cycloneye]

06L EDOUARD 140914 0000 23.0N 47.9W ATL 55 994

[abajan]

Looks like it could become a hurricane as early as tonight, though it's extremely doubtful that it'll strengthen much beyond a mid-range Cat 1 as the convection is tending to be fairly shallow overall and dry air is being sucked into the system on the eastern side.

Well, as per their latest update, the NHC is predicting that it will get to Cat 2 but I find they tend to underestimate strengthening, so I'm betting it'll reach Cat 3 at some point.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that Dvorak estimate, I would say 60 kt. Not quite good enough for a hurricane though.

[tolakram]

Looks pretty bad.

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=24&lon=-48&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&map=none&numframes=10

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

The compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more
organized during the evening. A low- to mid-level eye-like feature
has intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206
GMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced
slightly to the south of the mid-level center. The intensity has
been increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from
TAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind
vectors of 49-51 kt.

Upper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser
degree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear.
Intensification is expected due to a more conducive environment,
with the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air,
primarily to the south and east of Edouard. The intensity guidance,
particularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this
cycle. The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the
first 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the
consensus aid IVCN. By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while
extratropical transition occurs.

Edouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the
estimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable
run-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles.
Edouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track
for the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the
subtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been
changed substantially and remains very close to the multi-model
consensus TVCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 32.2N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 42.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

[Hammy]

If you look closely at low cloud motion, the center appears to be south of the deepest convection which leads me to believe shear is now on the increase once again. May not strengthen any further for the next day.

[floridasun78]

EDOUARD could be hurr some time sunday

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 140857
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band
has wrapped around the cyclone's center. Dvorak classifications
from both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique is substantially lower. The current intensity of
Edouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the
system may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties. The
vertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper
tropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now
that Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear
predicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10
kt from 24 through 72 hours. This along with quite warm 29C waters
is likely to lead to continued intensification through three days.
The new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly
higher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of
the SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the
vertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as
Edouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion
and shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to
maintain its intensity through day 4. By day 5, cold waters and
very strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial
weakening. Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS
storm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical
cyclone by day 5.

The improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the
infrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a
fairly confident assessment of the current position. Edouard is
moving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the
steering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. Edouard
will round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward
the northeast about 3 days. The NHC track prediction is based upon
the tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is
slightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72
hours and slightly east thereafter.

The tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an
earlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than
that previously analyzed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 24.0N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[abajan]

Judging by the latest visible satellite imagery, I think it's already a hurricane. Is that not an eye at its center of circulation?

[jaguarjace]

Judging by the latest visible satellite imagery, I think it's already a hurricane. Is that not an eye at its center of circulation?

Looks very nice.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

One of NOAA's P-3s is on the way to Edouard right now for a research mission. So is NASA's Global Hawk.

Another P-3 will ferry to Bermuda today and the G-IV will ferry to St. Croix.

NOAA Hurricane Research Division (HRD) Blog:
http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

NASA, NOAA and Air Force flight tracking:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

[cycloneye]

Up to 70kts.

06L EDOUARD 140914 1200 24.4N 50.0W ATL 70 984

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014
ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 50.7W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES



HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improve
since the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convection
surrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200
UTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrus
from a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTC
Windsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a
15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are a
consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values
have been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to the
eye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is only
being increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourth
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season.

Edouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to the
formation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about
305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude is
expected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by a
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strong
mid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S.
east coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught up
into the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the
east-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on this
developing steering pattern, and the official forecast closely
follows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA.

Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a
very favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all
of the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the
cyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should
not continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane
over the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be the
dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the only
reason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at this
time. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTs
and encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which is
expected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard is
forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the system
becomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The
official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous
forecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peak
intensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincide
with the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in the
lowest shear conditions.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a research
mission into Edouard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 24.7N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart