CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

This would be devestating.

Unfortunately, the HWRF just got Gonzalo right and countless storms before.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Just me or does it look like it's about to take off? Outflow is finally expanding.

[Kingarabian]

Essentially the same track by the CPHC but a lot closer to Oahu at the end of the cycle.

[AFWeather]

New track brings the center just off the west coast of Oahu. Also sped up a good bit, with the big island feeling impacts Friday night and Oahu late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

[gatorcane]

Also looks to be headed for the island of Kauai at the end if you extrapolate out a little bit past the last point.

On that path all the Hawaiian islands would feel high winds including hurricane force assuming that track holds.

[Kingarabian]

Also looks to be headed for the island of Kauai at the end....

On that path all the Hawaiian islands would feel high winds including hurricane force assuming that track holds.

Yeah. Wind Radius is key though.

But I wonder, exactly who are the CPHC following in regards to track? Only model that has a southern track is the Euro... but that has not been able to analyze Ana correctly yet.

[AFWeather]

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014

ANA CONTINUES TO PRESENT A SATELLITE SIGNATURE CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND PGTW...WHILE SAB CAME IN WITH
4.0/65 KT. AS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT FOR
THIS CYCLE. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1930Z WAS HELPFUL IN REFINING THE
WIND RADII FOR THIS PACKAGE.

ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST...TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 270/09 KT...WITH ANA BEING STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED
TO ITS NORTH. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NEAR 50 KT...
CURRENTLY EXISTS BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ANA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXPOSED TO THIS AREA OF DEBILITATING SHEAR.
INSTEAD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MINIMAL SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 3 AS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TREKS STEADILY WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH ANA THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE
STEERING CURRENTS WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SHEAR PROFILE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODEST WEAKENING. THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN ANA AND THE TROUGH INTRODUCES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
TRACK FORECAST AT LONGER RANGES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF TRACK GUIDANCE...
WHICH IS SHOWING LESS SPREAD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND PRESENTED BY THE ICON
CONSENSUS. ANA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY
AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM
TO SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR...A SLIGHTLY
DRIER ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 13.9N 145.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 14.1N 146.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.5N 147.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 14.9N 149.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.6N 151.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 154.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 19.5N 156.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 21.5N 158.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

Conservative as they get. Hopefully that's the case.

[supercane4867]

Those volcanoes will easily tear apart the circulation if Ana comes anywhere close to the Big Island. A hurricane near Oahu is pretty unlikely IMO

[Yellow Evan]

Those volcanoes will easily tear apart the circulation if Ana comes anywhere close to the Big Island. A hurricane near Oahu is pretty unlikely IMO

It's core is pretty small, so I think it can make to Oahu and Kauai as a hurricane.

[AbcdeerHI]

00z

[Alyono]

Those volcanoes will easily tear apart the circulation if Ana comes anywhere close to the Big Island. A hurricane near Oahu is pretty unlikely IMO

It's core is pretty small, so I think it can make to Oahu and Kauai as a hurricane.

not if it crosses the Big Island. The thing would be a minimal TS at most if it crosses the Big Island. 13,000 foot mountains will shread anything

[AFWeather]

Those volcanoes will easily tear apart the circulation if Ana comes anywhere close to the Big Island. A hurricane near Oahu is pretty unlikely IMO

It's core is pretty small, so I think it can make to Oahu and Kauai as a hurricane.

not if it crosses the Big Island. The thing would be a minimal TS at most if it crosses the Big Island. 13,000 foot mountains will shread anything

I believe he's saying that if the core stays over water it could maintain hurricane intensity. But yes, I do think it's fairly unlikely based on what we saw last time. The current forecast track would certainly disrupt the entire northeastern eyewall.

[Kingarabian]

Talk about threading the needle on the CPHC's part.

[AbcdeerHI]

I was thinking that the closer Ana is to the Big Island, the more likely we could see her llc severely disrupted by those 13k mountains. Maybe, if close enough, her circulation would jump/reform to the west of the big island in one of the cyclonic spinning eddy's that will form from the strong east/north east winds wrapping around the Big Island through the Alenuihaha Channel. Kinda like what happen with Iselle.

Don't forget about the volcanic emissions enhancing convection.

[Yellow Evan]

I think the CPHC needs to show a faster motion. I realize this is a PR move, but at some point, you have to leak the truth out.

[Yellow Evan]

I was thinking that the closer Ana is to the Big Island, the more likely we could see her llc severely disrupted by those 13k mountains. Maybe, if close enough, her circulation would jump/reform to the west of the big island in one of the cyclonic spinning eddy's that will form from the strong east/north east winds wrapping around the Big Island through the Alenuihaha Channel. Kinda like what happen with Iselle.

Don't forget about the volcanic emissions enhancing convection.

I agree that it is s highly likely to happen if it gets close to the Big Island. 13K mountains do weird stuff to TC's.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe Hawaii will get fortunate and it will pull an Iselle and weaken a good bit right before hitting or coming close to the Big Island.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe Hawaii will get fortunate and it will pull an Iselle and weaken a good bit right before hitting or coming close to the Big Island.

The angle of approach from Ana is different than the angle from Iselle.