ATL: Ex NINE

[AdamFirst]

The surge has begun...a huge plume of tropical moisture is lifting up from the Keys and Straits up towards mainland Florida. Heavy rain embedded within the mass.

[floridasun78]

yes raining starting here it raining day

[floridasun78]

so we dont know what 93l going to do

[caneman]

Next... Lol.. 2 dozen phantom storms from the GFS. Still recovering from the last major that moved through here few weeks back per GFS.

Judging from all your other posts, you really don't like the GFS do you? I would say that it has been most accurate so far. The pattern is very complex so really anything could/can happen at this point. It's a wating game my friend.

[HurriGuy]

Chinese model showing 974mb hurricane hitting Florida panhandle. Highly unlikely, but throwing that out there

[caneman]

Nice! Not going to happen. At least in my opinion.

[HurriGuy]

GFS 12z looks like it is pushing the leftover of 93L more south each run. Could it stay far south enough to get away from the continental dry air to maybe strengthen up before pushing back north again?

[wxman57]

One thing is looking more clear - there's no immediate threat to Florida. Rain over the next few days in the southern peninsula is related to the cold front over the region. 93L should track inland into the Yucatan in 36 hours or so. Something may survive in the western Caribbean next week, but it will be fighting dry air. It may never move northward into the Gulf. Will have to wait and see...

[stormlover2013]

yep, looks more and more like this could be nothing just gotta wait and see...

[HurriGuy]

Yeah I wouldn't expect a possible threat to Florida to anyone near the Florida coast until 8-10 days. This could hang around for weeks if something hangs around and is not swept into Atlantic

[NDG]

Not sure why my post was deleted from earlier this morning, if it was the wrong thread you could at least moved it. If i do not sees reply back from the person who deleted it I guess my posts are not welcomed in this site any more.

[HurriGuy]

Moderator said he moved some posts around earlier

[AJC3]

One thing is looking more clear - there's no immediate threat to Florida. Rain over the next few days in the southern peninsula is related to the cold front over the region. 93L should track inland into the Yucatan in 36 hours or so. Something may survive in the western Caribbean next week, but it will be fighting dry air. It may never move northward into the Gulf. Will have to wait and see...

No doubt. Mean 1000-500MB RH values drop off to somewhere between 15-30 percent across Florida and the adjacent GOMEX behind the frontal low and mid level trough passage. Additionally, the cooler, dry advective pattern will take its toll on SST's in that area, which have already cooled since the seasonal peak.

[Hurricaneman]

Not sure why my post was deleted from earlier this morning, if it was the wrong thread you could at least moved it. If i do not sees reply back from the person who deleted it I guess my posts are not welcomed in this site any more.

check the models thread

[NDG]

Moderator said he moved some posts around earlier

Thanks, I see it now, I was just going by a certain individual who wrote that my post was post was deleted.

[Sanibel]

I've seen it time and time again at this time of the year where a front penetrates deep in to the Gulf and compresses the tropical "juice" in the SW Caribbean. The season is still ripe enough that this triggers development. If there is already an existing Low with a head start the bounce back from this event could produce more of a tropical system than Levi realizes.

[psyclone]

My long time favorite way to combat excessive enthusiasm is to simply invert the NHC development probs: whereas a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours=a 60% chance of NO development and a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days=a 50% chance of NO development. My gut tells me nothing significant comes of this but we'll see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I will guess that we might get 2 named systems from this invest but as with anything in the western Caribbean this time of year the models may be underestimating this and if this is a coherent system in the Western Caribbean it could spell trouble but as of now I believe this is a depression

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Windsong]

wxman57 or AJC3 please advise. I am leaving Port Canaveral Sunday for the Bahamas and returning on Thursday 10/30. This is my bucket list cruise and it took me a year to save up for it. I did not have the money for travel insurance.

In the best opinion you can give me at this point, do you think I will have a tropical companion (which is fine) ??? It's my first cruise and probably my last. Age and health will dictate that.

Thank you !!

[wxman57]

wxman57 or AJC3 please advise. I am leaving Port Canaveral Sunday for the Bahamas and returning on Thursday 10/30. This is my bucket list cruise and it took me a year to save up for it. I did not have the money for travel insurance.

In the best opinion you can give me at this point, do you think I will have a tropical companion (which is fine) ??? It's my first cruise and probably my last. Age and health will dictate that.

Thank you !!

I think that more than likely your cruise will not be interrupted by a tropical storm. I'd say 80% chance of clear sailing.