EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2907
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
T numbers of 6.0? Wow. Wouldn't be surprised to see this stronger than 85 knots by the next update. But I think they'll keep it around 80-85 knots.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2907
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re:
Kingarabian wrote:I think we have Major Hurricane Amanda from the look of things.
A jump from 80 mph to at least 115 mph would be quite rare. Maybe a Category 2 but probably not a Category 3 as yet.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
-
Steve820
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 188
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 8:04 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane
cycloneye wrote:Eye clearing.
It looks almost like a major hurricane already! I think it'll be a Category 2 (or at least a strong 90 mph C1) on the next advisory.
0 likes
Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Re:
Steve820 wrote:Possibly, but only if it continues ...
I was trying to figure out why the pages were loading so slowly. Then I checked the file sizes of the animations in your signature.
0 likes
-
hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2907
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Even 90 mph is conservative in my opinion. I don't think it's often you get a Category 1 hurricane with a well-defined eye on IR imagery and a perfect ring of cold cloudtops surrounding the eye.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane
23:30Z
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re:
Nimbus wrote:The SST's probably wouldn't support a major hurricane for much further north though.
Disagreed, given the warm oceanic heat content and above average SST's.
0 likes
-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Even 90 mph is conservative in my opinion. I don't think it's often you get a Category 1 hurricane with a well-defined eye on IR imagery and a perfect ring of cold cloudtops surrounding the eye.
I'd go with 85 knts. I think it could possibly be a major early tomorrow.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145295
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane
Up to 85kts.
EP, 01, 2014052500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1105W, 85, 978, HU
EP, 01, 2014052500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1105W, 85, 978, HU
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
yeah cat2
Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Sunday, May 25, 2014 0:00 Z
Location at the time:
787 statue miles (1,267 km) to the S (183°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, México.
Wind (1 min. avg.):
85 knots (~98 mph | 44 m/s | 157 km/h)
However looking at the micro wave above JTWC intensity looks more realistic atm
01E AMANDA 140524 1800 11.3N 110.1W EPAC 70 987
Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Sunday, May 25, 2014 0:00 Z
Location at the time:
787 statue miles (1,267 km) to the S (183°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, México.
Wind (1 min. avg.):
85 knots (~98 mph | 44 m/s | 157 km/h)
However looking at the micro wave above JTWC intensity looks more realistic atm
01E AMANDA 140524 1800 11.3N 110.1W EPAC 70 987
Last edited by stormkite on Sat May 24, 2014 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Dvorak suggests 100 kt.
TXPZ21 KNES 250030
TCSENP
A. 01E (AMANDA)
B. 25/0000Z
C. 11.5N
D. 110.5W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY WITH DT=6.0 BASED ON LIGHT GRAY
EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE. MET=4.0 AND PAT=4.5. DUE
TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION DID 6 HR AVERAGE FOR A DT=5.5. WHICH SERVES AS
THE BASIS FOR THE FT OF 5.5.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
TXPZ21 KNES 250030
TCSENP
A. 01E (AMANDA)
B. 25/0000Z
C. 11.5N
D. 110.5W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY WITH DT=6.0 BASED ON LIGHT GRAY
EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE. MET=4.0 AND PAT=4.5. DUE
TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION DID 6 HR AVERAGE FOR A DT=5.5. WHICH SERVES AS
THE BASIS FOR THE FT OF 5.5.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
0 likes
2014MAY25 010000 4.6 980.6 79.6
no shape or form is that 100 knots
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
no shape or form is that 100 knots
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re:
stormkite wrote:2014MAY25 010000 4.6 980.6 79.6
no shape or form is that 100 knots
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Well, Microwave imagery continues to improve:
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:stormkite wrote:2014MAY25 010000 4.6 980.6 79.6
no shape or form is that 100 knots
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Well, Microwave imagery continues to improve:
Call a spade a spade its still a 70 knot system the ring is incomplete
01E AMANDA 140524 1800 11.3N 110.1W EPAC 70 987
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest