WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[supercane]

WTPA42 PHFO 060230
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULLING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD WITH
THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWING. IN THE LATER PERIODS...GENEVIEVE WILL
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH TOWARD A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
SO THIS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF 10 TO 15 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR WITH SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE BANDING STRUCTURE NO LONGER LOOKS QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID SIX HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 3.0 FROM PHFO AND SAB TO 2.5 FROM JTWC...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAKER SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES...INCREASING
SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 11.6N 174.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 12.2N 176.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.1N 179.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 178.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.6N 176.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 18.3N 174.1E 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 172.6E 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 172.5E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Yellow Evan]

How is still 40 knts? It looks as good as Julio I swear.

[Kingarabian]

How is still 40 knts? It looks as good as Julio I swear.

WOW. Has the CPHC one upped the JMA?! I'm not being critical or anything but this is sort of ridiculous.

[supercane4867]

Both microwave and satellite imagery indicate 55kt is a more reasonable estimate

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This would definitely be a severe tropical storm if classified by the JMA.

Other than that, HWRF showing Genevieve over the WPAC packing 125 kt winds and a minumum sea level pressure (MSLP) of 935 mb/hPa.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Despite the great amount of dry air, Genevieve has impressive convection and the banding is impressive too. The dry air would wear off as it nears the IDL shown in the water vapor map.

[supercane4867]

ADT going aggressive

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 985.5mb/ 69.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -77.7C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Yellow Evan]

It is beyond me why they are not considering ADT values for this system.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 060848
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRESENTS AN IMPROVED BANDING PATTERN...WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINING WELL WITHIN THE AREA OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. 0602Z SSMIS DATA COURTESY OF
THE FNMOC/NRL WEBSITES ALSO DEPICTED WELL ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES ABOUT THE LLCC. THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEAR
TO BE LESSENING OVER THE SYSTEM...AND THE 06/0600Z UW-CIMMS
SHEAR ESTIMATE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 KT. CURRENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM PHFO/SAB...AND 3.0 FROM
JTWC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ON A CONSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF
290/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS GENEVIEVE INTERACTS WITH A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE.
THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AS WELL AS THE
TVCN CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS WARM SSTS AROUND 29C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS. GENEVIEVE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON SOON AFTER CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...INCREASING SHEAR
FROM THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW OR HALT
INTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 12.1N 175.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 12.6N 177.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 13.7N 180.0E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 15.0N 177.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 16.3N 175.6E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.3N 173.6E 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.5N 173.0E 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 30.5N 173.0E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1761W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 75, 70, 85, 1009, 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,
EP, 07, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1761W, 65, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 45, 40, 50, 1009, 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,
EP, 07, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1761W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 20, 1009, 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,

[euro6208]

I agree this should be a hurricane now based on a well defined eye and dvorak of 4.0 and above...More likely will be a typhoon entering the WPAC and should be interesting to see if JTWC continues CPHC's intensity forecast...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We now have Hurricane Genevieve!

07E GENEVIEVE 140806 1200 12.5N 176.1W EPAC 65 990

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane GENEVIEVE Advisory Number 38
Issued at 500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 12.8N 176.8W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
Maximum sustained winds: 75 MPH...120 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 295 degrees AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! If only it stayed in the Central Pacific some more time.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 061444
TCDCP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

GENEVIEVE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT APPEARING NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA ALSO DEPICT WELL ORGANIZED
BANDING ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 06/1200Z
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATE DECREASED TO ONLY 6 KT...
WHILE CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASED TO 4.0 FROM
PHFO/SAB...AND 3.5 FROM JTWC. UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
HOVERING NEAR 4.3/72 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GENEVIEVE
WILL BE DESIGNATED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...290/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTH FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS
GENEVIEVE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED AFTER 72
HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOTION
THEREAFTER...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH GENEVIEVE NOW A HURRICANE...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS WARM SSTS AROUND 29C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS CYCLE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AT ALL TIME PERIODS THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND
NOW PEAKS OUT AT 95 KT FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
ON DAYS 4 AND 5...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 12.8N 176.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 13.7N 178.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 14.9N 178.6E 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.3N 176.3E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.7N 174.8E 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 21.5N 173.8E 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.5N 173.0E 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 34.0N 172.0E 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON

[jimvb]

I notice that Genevieve has 75 mph winds, qualifying it for a storm level greater than Tropical Storm. Two sites I have seen call it Hurricane Genevieve. No, this is not a hurricane. Since it is west of the International Date Line, it is a typhoon. Typhoon Genevieve.

[Spin]

Genevieve is still to the east of the dateline, so it’s a hurricane instead of a typhoon.

[Yellow Evan]

I notice that Genevieve has 75 mph winds, qualifying it for a storm level greater than Tropical Storm. Two sites I have seen call it Hurricane Genevieve. No, this is not a hurricane. Since it is west of the International Date Line, it is a typhoon. Typhoon Genevieve.

It has not passed it yet.

[CrazyC83]

It will become Typhoon Genevieve probably around 0000Z unless it rapidly weakens. I would think the next advisory will be the last CPHC advisory, and JMA will take over with the 0300Z advisory.

John 1994 was the last EPAC-CPAC-WPAC crossover?

[Yellow Evan]

It will become Typhoon Genevieve probably around 0000Z unless it rapidly weakens. I would think the next advisory will be the last CPHC advisory, and JMA will take over with the 0300Z advisory.

John 1994 was the last EPAC-CPAC-WPAC crossover?

No, Dora 99 and Jimena 03 both crossed over.