ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

A few of us mentioned the easterly shear issue last evening as well - easterly then the possibility of westerly shear once it moves closer to the islands...

[wxman57]

This has met the criteria of a tropical cyclone for the past 10-12 hours now. I'm not sure why this hasn't been declared by the NHC.

It needs a well-defined LLC and organized convection near the center.

[KatDaddy]

Invest 93L continues to become better organized this morning and would not be surprised to see TD 3 later today. Most models still show a recurve away from the Caribbean this morning. Also of interest is the tropical wave behind Invest93L which is showing some signs of organization. I would not be surprised if this wave becomes our next Atl Invest over the next several days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This has met the criteria of a tropical cyclone for the past 10-12 hours now. I'm not sure why this hasn't been declared by the NHC.

It needs a well-defined LLC and organized convection near the center.

It has both. Deep convection has sustained itself since yesterday afternoon, with banding features in the southern semicircle. The 0011z ASCAT showed a well defined and closed center.

I understand there's no rush to designate it since it's far from land, but if it meets their own criteria..

[tropicwatch]

It certainly looks like 93 is dealing with a little more dry air and wind shear this morning.

[TheStormExpert]

Not too impressed with 93L this morning, even the models are trending weaker with this system.

[Alyono]

this is in sad shape this morning.

The models continue to trend away from development. The upper easterly shear should allow for the dry air to penetrate the core

still could see something tomorrow, however. Not likely today

and no, this never had a well defined surface circulation

[Gustywind]

Latest positions from SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/0545 UTC 9.9N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 93L
28/2345 UTC 9.7N 35.8W T1.0/1.0 93L

[TheStormExpert]

I'm guessing that Kelvin Wave came and went through yesterday and this explains why convection was good looking yesterday.

[TheStormExpert]

It will be interesting to see if the NHC lowers it's development chances in the 8am TWO. I would assume so IMO.

[Alyono]

What a difference a day makes

Yesterday, development appeared to be an absolute certainty

Today, it may be a 60% chance of development

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
east of the southern Windward Islands continue to become better
organized. This system could develop into a tropical depression
later today or tomorrow while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Blown Away]

Looks like those hostile conditions in the MDR again... J/K

[TheStormExpert]

The 8am TWO looks just like a copy and paste of the 2am TWO.

In no way is this thing better organized than it was 6hrs. ago!

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like those hostile conditions in the MDR again... J/K

Joe Bastardi has the right thinking, IMO. As of this morning it's looking more and more as this will take a similar fate as of which Chantal and Dorian from last year did and struggle to survive after a few days.

[tropicwatch]

:uarrow: The 8am TWO looks just like a copy and paste of the 2am TWO.

In no way is this thing better organized than it was 6hrs. ago!

The banding features might be a part of why it is considered better organized. Its just that the moisture has diminished somewhat due to dry air intrusion and wind shear. JMO!

[tolakram]

Visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=12&lon=-39&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

From the Weatherbell pay site, Bastardi has this as a 50kt storm passing just north of Martinique Friday and a 45kt storm crossing over PR Saturday.

You all keep your eyes open.

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[ninel conde]

Looks like those hostile conditions in the MDR again... J/K

i dont think it will survive much longer. the horrid conditions have been a multi year trend and they havent changed.

[wxman57]

This has met the criteria of a tropical cyclone for the past 10-12 hours now. I'm not sure why this hasn't been declared by the NHC.

It needs a well-defined LLC and organized convection near the center.

It has both. Deep convection has sustained itself since yesterday afternoon, with banding features in the southern semicircle. The 0011z ASCAT showed a well defined and closed center.

I understand there's no rush to designate it since it's far from land, but if it meets their own criteria..

Convection remains quite shallow and is trending weaker, but I think I see a well-defined LLC near 9.5N/38.9W.