EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

ADT will probably level off at 6.5. Interested to see what SAB says.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know with you guys...but I think I'm seeing a Cat4 right now..but if not, just wait another 3-6 hours and then you'll have a borderline Cat4/5 hurricane.


Another one from the EPAC, people...

[Ntxw]

I don't know with you guys...but I think I'm seeing a Cat4 right now..but if not, just wait another 3-6 hours and then you'll have a borderline Cat4/5 hurricane.


Another one from the EPAC, people...

I agree, I think this is worth at least 110kts face value.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely Cat.4 from what satellite shows. You don't see that much gray wrapping around the eye in Cat.2/3 storms.

[Yellow Evan]

This is through my analysis a T6.5. On the cusp of T7.0, just that CMG needs to rap around 0.5 degree around the eyewall OR a WMG needs to form.

[tolakram]

Very pleased to see recon is going in and this should be a very strong storm when it does.

I hope it stays offshore, no one needs a major making landfall anywhere.

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-105&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=700&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=20

[dexterlabio]

Definitely Cat.4 from what satellite shows. You don't see that much gray wrapping around the eye in Cat.2/3 storms.

^I agree...just compare this one with Norbert...Odile definitely looks better..

[Kingarabian]

Very pleased to see recon is going in and this should be a very strong storm when it does.

I hope it stays offshore, no one needs a major making landfall anywhere.

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-105&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=700&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=20

From the last discussion, the NHC seems to be very keen on it coming very close to Baja. I hope everyone close to there is paying close attention.

[Yellow Evan]

Speaking of which, the iCyclone chase team (the one that chased Haiyan) is thinking about going after this. IMO they have to leave tomorrow. Baja is ruff chase grounds as there are no major cities from San Jose Del Cabo (Cabo San Lucas is the southern tip while San Jose Del Cabo is a little W) to Puetro San Carlos, where their head chasers chased Jimena 09. There is a very small village in the middle called Puetro Charle, which got destroyed by Norbert 08. More about Puetro Charle in here (in Spanish): http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2008/10/16/i ... e=043n2est

Lots of news tonight: 1) Hurricane ODILE is now a strong Cat 2 and rapidly intensifying; 2) the motion and the models have trended right, so the new NHC forecast now brings a major hurricane very close to Cabo San Lucas, and a still-strong one very near Puerto San Carlos; 3) a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for much of the S Peninsula. The iCyclone dudes-- chaser Josh and cameraman Steve-- had a strategy session in L.A. just a couple of hours ago. Since this cyclone is so close to our backyard, we're feeling the tug...

[Ntxw]

This is through my analysis a T6.5. On the cusp of T7.0, just that CMG needs to rap around 0.5 degree around the eyewall OR a WMG needs to form.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 18:08:11 N Lon : 106:47:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 962.3mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.6 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.9 degrees

[CaneCurious]

My parents live in Cabo San Lucas directly on the Sea of Cortez. I am worried sick now because as of early this evening we all thought that Odile would stay offshore. This storm has thrown everyone a curveball. Please keep everyone living in the baja in your thoughts.

[Ntxw]

This is definitely worth a cat 4 right now

[supercane4867]

Odile is also exceptionally large with TS force winds already affecting Mexican coast

[Kingarabian]

ADT would be a lot higher it could just interpolate the center correctly.

[Yellow Evan]

My parents live in Cabo San Lucas directly on the Sea of Cortez. I am worried sick now because as of early this evening we all thought that Odile would stay offshore. This storm has thrown everyone a curveball. Please keep everyone living in the baja in your thoughts.

As of right now, they will miss the worst of it. However, the NHC track has shifted a bit E. Also, what elevation do your parents live? The main threat for TC's in Baja comes from mudslides.

[Kingarabian]

This is definitely worth a cat 4 right now

It'll probably be upgraded once SAB comes out.

[Yellow Evan]

Odile is also exceptionally large with TS force winds already affecting Mexican coast

And also starting a Gulf of California moisture surge.

[Kingarabian]

Odile intensifying:

Latest:

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 18:12:31 N Lon : 106:56:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.5mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -13.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.0 degrees

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES