ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting, btw when does D-Max occur?

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Interesting, btw when does D-Max occur?

D-Max occurs around daybreak.

[boca]

92L is already north of South Florida so Central Florida is more of a target

[blp]

500mb presentation from 00UTC on CIMMS was still quite poor. It needs much stronger convection than what is showing up now. It is of note that this convection is at least maintaining itself during Dmin so it should help at least keep it going until Dmax unlike last night.

Not unusal to see this pulsating in convection when you have a weak developing system.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

92L is already north of South Florida so Central Florida is more of a target

Adam First a few pages back mentioned Katrina as a comparison, at the time I felt and thought the COC although weak was south and east of the location Katrina was at that time. But as I see it now he is correct, is this suppose to move due west or wsw like Katrina?

[NDG]

It seems to me that 92L has not moved much this evening, possible weak LLC is just NE of Great Abaco Island, SE of most of the convection going by some of the observations on the island.

[blp]

92L is already north of South Florida so Central Florida is more of a target

Adam First a few pages back mentioned Katrina as a comparison, at the time I felt and thought the COC although weak was south and east of the location Katrina was at that time. But as I see it now he is correct, is this suppose to move due west or wsw like Katrina?

Hey Dave, it depends on how deep it gets. The deeper system will swing WSW versus a shallower system moving west.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

92L is already north of South Florida so Central Florida is more of a target

Adam First a few pages back mentioned Katrina as a comparison, at the time I felt and thought the COC although weak was south and east of the location Katrina was at that time. But as I see it now he is correct, is this suppose to move due west or wsw like Katrina?

Hey Dave, it depends on how deep it gets. The deeper system will swing WSW versus a shallower system moving west.

Evening Brian,

looks a bit better than earlier today, just a wait and see if it can hold on to the convection.

[boca]

92L just seems to be sitting there not moving

[blp]

I don't get why NOAA does not put the floater over this. The NASA is OK but not as robust as the NOAA site.

[Bocadude85]

At the very least I would think a lot of rain is on its way for us here in Florida

[blp]

92L just seems to be sitting there not moving

Yea I think the High is finally building in. You can see the outflow is getting a little flat on the North side.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I don't get why NOAA does not put the floater over this. The NASA is OK but not as robust as the NOAA site.

I agree with you on that, 91L is way out there no threat and has a floater. We have a potential minor threat close to home and no floater.

[blp]

Hey Dave, it depends on how deep it gets. The deeper system will swing WSW versus a shallower system moving west.

Evening Brian,

looks a bit better than earlier today, just a wait and see if it can hold on to the convection.

No doubt, the d-max may be fun. I think we may get some nice hot towers.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Hey Dave, it depends on how deep it gets. The deeper system will swing WSW versus a shallower system moving west.

Evening Brian,

looks a bit better than earlier today, just a wait and see if it can hold on to the convection.

No doubt, the d-max may be fun. I think we may get some nice hot towers.

The next set of models should be running soon correct?

[Sanibel]

NHC is wise. It doesn't appear to be doing any rapid development.

[Siker]

I believe the lack of floater is due to a satellite connection issue. Somebody remarked on another site earlier that some sort of transfer was taking place with the connection between two different locations, and its timing coincided with around when the last available floater images are from (~1500 UTC). So hopefully that gets fixed soon.

[blp]

Ok, very interesting ASCAT pass from an hour and half ago.

[SouthDadeFish]

If convection persists through the overnight hours, I fail to see why this does not qualify as a TC. I would say NHC would probably wait for recon, but its proximity to land suggests otherwise. Nice low-level structure:

[blp]

If convection persists through the overnight hours, I fail to see why this does not qualify as a TC. I would say NHC would probably wait for recon, but its proximity to land suggests otherwise. Nice low-level structure:

[]http://i.imgur.com/wy4qt1p.jpg[/img]

I agree, that ASCAT pass was pretty convincing to me that whatever was mid-level has worked its way to the surface.