ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[adam0983]

Does anyone think Hurricane Arthur will be a Category 2 Hurricane on the next advisory at 11am?

[Jevo]

Hmm, Arthur may be a cat 2 (maybe nearing 3) by the time it gets closest to the OBX. Are the models still on the west side? This is going to catch a few people off guard if so.

To answer your question... The Euro was over the OBX and the latest GFS shows an initial impact in the Beaufort area then through the Sound and out to sea, keeping the OBX on the West side of the circulation

06z GFS +24

http://i.imgur.com/VTOu2Jy.png

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think Hurricane Arthur will be a Category 2 Hurricane on the next advisory at 11am?

No. However, I think it could be about 75 knots by then.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 75kts:

AL, 01, 2014070312, , BEST, 0, 318N, 787W, 75, 983, HU

[NDG]

Does anyone think Hurricane Arthur will be a Category 2 Hurricane on the next advisory at 11am?

No. However, I think it could be about 75 knots by then.

You spoke too soon, is already up to 75 knots per 12z Best Track.

[NDG]

T Numbers support 75 knot winds.

03/1145 UTC 31.8N 78.8W T4.5/4.5 ARTHUR -- Atlantic

[ninel conde]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virgin ... dar?play=1

you can see here where the storms in central NC are now beginning to move nw. my guess is thats a sign arthur will move west of hateras,

[NDG]

Arthur is beginning to move in within short range radar from Charleston and Wilmington radar sites, intense convection on the northern quadrant but keep in mind that this is short range so is not yet seeing the SE quadrant of the Hurricane.

[xironman]

Almost looks like some mesos in the eyewall.

[HurrMark]

Very little eastward progression...if these trends continue, more of NC will be impacted than first anticipated.

[adam0983]

Does anyone see Hurricane Arthur making landfall sooner than expected looks to be going due north on radar. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[TheAustinMan]

The track that Arthur assumes right now is going to be particularly critical as for seeing where exactly, or how close, this system gets to landfall.


What you're seeing is the environmental wind flow in the Atlantic, with Arthur shown with the hurricane symbol. Shaded contours depict the speed and arrows depict the motion of the wind at levels of the atmosphere were the pressure is 400-850 millibars; this area has shown to be an important factor in determining the steering currents for storms of this intensity.

[NDG]

Does anyone see Hurricane Arthur making landfall sooner than expected looks to be going due north on radar. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Yes, with the final track it all the depends because of the shape of the N.C. coast the more to the left it goes the quicker landfall would be, but being that we are within a forecast of 24hrs, models do a very good job so I would expect a more NNE to NE heading to start any time soon, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how good/confident the NHC has become in their forecasting... Years ago the entire SC/NC coastline would have been under watch and/or warning... Arthur will be so close but yet the warning area is generally the OBX...

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Blown Away]

We should do a poll and submit our guess on the highest wind gust observed on land?? I say 79 mph at Hatteras...

[ConvergenceZone]

Now I know why the NHC isn't strengthening this above 85 mph, because of the following comment in their last discussion:

"the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the East Coast of North America,"


Regardless, 85 mph is still a decient storm and people need to be on alert...........

[Alyono]

Now I know why the NHC isn't strengthening this above 85 mph, because of the following comment in their last discussion:

"the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the East Coast of North America,"


Regardless, 85 mph is still a decient storm and people need to be on alert...........

it will be quite a bit more intense than 85 mph. May already be

[Sanibel]

It's doing the fist. But this might be a milder version due to inhibition and strengthening occurring at the same time.

[theworld]

Arthur Tightened up his Eye in last hour radar loop and in warmer water. Posting from DelMarVa on the Beach and taking precautions.