EPAC: ELIDA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2031 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972014) 20140629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140629 1800 140630 0600 140630 1800 140701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 100.6W 16.6N 102.3W 18.1N 103.4W 19.4N 104.1W
BAMD 14.9N 100.6W 15.8N 101.9W 16.3N 102.4W 16.3N 102.0W
BAMM 14.9N 100.6W 16.5N 102.2W 17.8N 103.2W 18.7N 103.6W
LBAR 14.9N 100.6W 16.1N 102.3W 17.1N 104.0W 18.0N 105.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140701 1800 140702 1800 140703 1800 140704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 104.4W 21.2N 105.7W 22.3N 108.1W 24.1N 112.0W
BAMD 15.6N 101.3W 14.0N 100.8W 12.9N 102.4W 11.8N 106.1W
BAMM 19.1N 103.7W 19.1N 103.7W 19.3N 104.3W 19.6N 105.9W
LBAR 18.5N 107.0W 19.8N 109.9W 21.6N 113.5W 23.7N 118.1W
SHIP 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 100.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 99.0W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 95.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Yellow Evan]

Euro less deep.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 140 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, have become
better organized today. Although upper-level winds are not
particularly conducive for additional development, only a slight
increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical
depression during the next day or so. Later this week, upper-level
winds could become a little more favorable for development while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

At this rate, this could become Douglas before 04E does.

[hurricanes1234]

In my opinion, I agree that this looks better than 4E in a way. It's more compact and compact systems are much better at strengthening than large, monsoon like ones which closely reflects 4E. Once 4E moves away, the upper level winds might improve and that's why I think this has a better chance than 4E, as of now. However, I could be very, very wrong so don't take it as official.

[Yellow Evan]

In my opinion, I agree that this looks better than 4E in a way. It's more compact and compact systems are much better at strengthening than large, monsoon like ones which closely reflects 4E. Once 4E moves away, the upper level winds might improve and that's why I think this has a better chance than 4E, as of now. However, I could be very, very wrong so don't take it as official.

I tend to agree. I would not rule out a hurricane. The question here is will it impact land?

[cycloneye]

With that sentence about a slight increase in organization it could result in the formation of a TD I would have the % at 60%-80% but is only my take.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

With that sentence about a slight increase in organization it could result in the formation of a TD I would have the % at 60%-80% but is only my take.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When conditions aren't the best, NHC tends to go no higher than 50% it seems with this kind of wording.

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2014063000, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1016W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 101.1W TO 19.1N 105.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 101.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 101.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT 300036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING DEFINITION IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS CONTAINED TO THE
SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E IS
HINDERING OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) IS
MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT 1008MB. DUE
TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[hurricanes1234]

The only problem now appears to be 4E/Douglas imparting moderate shear on 97E. Other than that, air on the SSD water vapour imagery is quite moist and the sea, as it's been for the whole season thus far, is like a bathtub.

[Yellow Evan]

The only problem now appears to be 4E/Douglas imparting moderate shear on 97E. Other than that, air on the SSD water vapour imagery is quite moist and the sea, as it's been for the whole season thus far, is like a bathtub.

I agree that it should form. The question is when IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest GFS keeps this much further west.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 240 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Although upper-level winds
are not particularly conducive for additional development, only a
slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[stormcruisin]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPE ... ml#picture

Appears to get absorbed by the other low on the EC model.

[cycloneye]

Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located about 180 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continues to show signs of organization. Latest satellite data,
plus coastal surface observations and ship reports, indicate that
the low is producing tropical-storm-force winds. However, the system
still lacks a well-defined circulation center. Upper-level winds
are not particularly conducive for additional development, but only
a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical storm during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive! Now, the EPAC would have 2 tropical cyclones existing at the same time before the season's first peak. As for the system, this is looking organized.

[hurricanes1234]

Douglas is ruining the potential for 97E to develop. There's too much shear right now, even though it looks organised.

[hurricanes1234]

What?! This thing has winds of 45 knots? If this develops, it will likely go straight to tropical storm and be stronger than Douglas in terms of wind speeds!

97E INVEST 140630 1200 17.2N 103.4W EPAC 45 1003

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks classifiable to me.