EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

[CaliforniaResident]

Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?

No. You could get its remnants though.

I'm hoping for at least a few showers.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?

No. You could get its remnants though.

I'm hoping for at least a few showers.

NWS San Diego says this

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER MODEL SPREAD
AND CONTINUING RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES FOR EACH MODEL IN THE HANDLING
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS...TO THE EXTENT THERE IS ONE...IS THAT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN. OCCASIONAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THESE CONTINUE TO BE LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIER
SOLUTIONS WITH IT MORE LIKELY THAT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E is definitely looking good and may become a TD this week. This should be interesting.



Synopsis for 91E and other systems:http://goo.gl/Xb164P

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks big. Reminds me of Ivo last year.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 91, 2014081718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1155W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Kingarabian]

These large systems usually take a while to consolidate.

[Yellow Evan]

These large systems usually take a while to consolidate.

It's not that far off though. Just needs a little more convection.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 08/17/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 54 64 66 68 65 64 59 54
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 54 64 66 68 65 64 59 54
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 41 42 43 43 41 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 13 14 15 16 8 9 14 9 14 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -6 -5 -6 -2 -10 -5
SHEAR DIR 78 90 78 75 78 70 71 76 87 107 99 172 224
SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.2 23.4 21.7

[Yellow Evan]

Again showing a mid to upper level TS

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

From the 8am PDT discussion on Karina,

"After that, the
large disturbance located about 700 nmi east of Karina is expected
to develop and become a very large circulation, more than than
twice the normal size of a tropical cyclone."

[Yellow Evan]

From the 8am PDT discussion on Karina,

"After that, the
large disturbance located about 700 nmi east of Karina is expected
to develop and become a very large circulation, more than than
twice the normal size of a tropical cyclone."

which leads me to another thing.

CA may have to watch out for higher surf than normal due to its large size.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized. This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

I expect an upgrade at 3:00 UTC tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 91, 2014081800, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1162W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 210, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[supercane4867]

Now renumbered as 12E on the Navy site

[Yellow Evan]

Def agree w/ upgrade. Looks like a TD to me IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Visible satellite images indicate that the large area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined center of circulation along with enough
organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone. The
initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement with a 28-kt ASCAT
pass from 1754 UTC and a more recent 30 kt estimate from TAFB.

Environmental conditions would seem to favor intensification due to
warm waters ahead of the depression during the next few days and
relatively low shear. The biggest negative factor is the initial
structure of the cyclone, with a large radius of maximum wind and
overall large sprawling circulation envelope. Tropical cyclones
with this type of structure tend to intensify only gradually, and
this is reflected in the NHC wind speed prediction below. The
model guidance is also in relatively good agreement with the
NHC forecast, with only the SHIPS model showing the depression
reaching hurricane strength. The system should begin to weaken in a
few days when it moves over much colder waters, although it could
spin down more slowly than average due to its large size and a
mid-latitude trough interaction.

The best estimate of initial motion is 275/7. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to remain for the next
day or so, causing the depression to take a westward, then
west-northwestward, course. However, an unusually deep trough for
mid-August is forecast to dig just offshore of the southwestern
United States, which will likely steer the tropical cyclone
northward in two or three days, followed by a turn toward the
northwest at long range as a result of a weakness left by the
trough. Model guidance is in poor agreement at days 4 and 5 due to
varying predicted strengths of the trough, with the ECMWF taking
the cyclone significantly farther to the north of the rest of the
models. Since the ECMWF ensemble mean is very close to the model
consensus, for now the ECMWF operational solution is thought of as
an outlier, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus at all
forecast times.

It is worth noting that while the official forecast is well
offshore of the southwestern United States, model guidance does
suggest a surge of moisture is possible in that region by Thursday.
Please monitor products issued by your local National Weather
Service office for more details on a possible heavy rain threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.1N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 16.3N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 17.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.4N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.8N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 26.5N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

The biggest limitation is its size. If it consolidates quickly, though, I won't totally rule out a possible 65 knot hurricane....

[Yellow Evan]

The biggest limitation is its size. If it consolidates quickly, though, I won't totally rule out a possible 65 knot hurricane....

Agreed. So far, it's doing an okay job at consolidating.