ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Alyono]

the EC run is MEANINGLESS. Wrong system develops

Not gaining anything looking at its output

[Kingarabian]

the EC run is MEANINGLESS. Wrong system develops

Not gaining anything looking at its output

So an initialization error?

[chaser1]

With regard to the EURO not clearly verifying along side the other models, I'm not surprised. As a model, it just seems inferior in more precisely picking up small scale system development. Assuming that the majority of the models do verify, then I would be confident that the EURO will latch on, and in this case I think better handle the later motion and intensity.

[Alyono]

the EC run is MEANINGLESS. Wrong system develops

Not gaining anything looking at its output

So an initialization error?

no, a dynamical error

[cycloneye]

EC AGAIN is developing the wrong system

I'd give the Canadian more weight than the EC in the deep tropics

However,EC has a monster in EPAC.

[chaser1]

Originally, I would have assumed that an adequate trough might cause a Caribbean tracker to bend north and threaten the Fla. West Coast or points north. Well, after taking a long look I for one am thinking that the GFS is going way overboard on its future development of essentially a large cutoff mid level low spinning off New England and causing a resultant weakening of the tropical ridge.

The Euro is also showing a large weakness over the Bahamas and Western Atlantic at 144 hours - you would think a somewhat deep system in the Caribbean would get pulled some to the NW towards that weakness. Euro keeps the low broad and doesn't develop it so it heads west with the low-level flow:

Good point and would have to agree. To be honest, the EURO 144 hour 500mb not only somewhat mirrors the GFS, but has the cut off low even further south, all the more degrading whatever ridge might have been there. It would seem foolish to go against both the GFS AND the Euro in light of their 144 hr. forecasts. Still......., seems odd to me. Nearly all the energy from further north up in Hudson Bay, appears to have eroded, while well to the Northeast over the North Atlantic, that low is far to the north and east and seemingly no influence whatsoever. There seems to be some westerly flow "upstairs" from 200mb that the models are showing partially maintaining the more upper level feature off of New England, yet even most of this new energy at the time appears to be getting pulled way to the north and over Hudson Bay and shooting eastward towards Europe from there. I'm just thinking perhaps, that this East Coast feature will be a weaker and more 200-400mb feature.

[Jevo]

12z GEM (CMC) Has a bit of an interesting run this early. Through the upper Keys and riding Florida's West coast coming inland in the big bend area.. Very early, but something to note.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[cycloneye]

They updated the 18z hurricane models.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20140819 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140819 1800 140820 0600 140820 1800 140821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 50.5W 10.3N 51.6W 11.3N 53.1W 12.2N 55.0W
BAMD 9.5N 50.5W 9.7N 52.7W 10.0N 55.0W 10.4N 57.5W
BAMM 9.5N 50.5W 9.7N 52.4W 10.3N 54.5W 10.9N 56.7W
LBAR 9.5N 50.5W 9.4N 52.9W 9.9N 55.8W 10.3N 59.0W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 59KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140821 1800 140822 1800 140823 1800 140824 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 57.5W 15.9N 64.0W 18.0N 71.3W 19.2N 77.5W
BAMD 10.9N 59.9W 12.6N 64.3W 14.9N 67.8W 17.2N 71.3W
BAMM 11.8N 58.9W 14.2N 63.5W 16.8N 68.3W 19.6N 73.5W
LBAR 10.8N 62.3W 12.0N 68.3W 16.4N 72.0W 17.6N 75.8W
SHIP 71KTS 93KTS 96KTS 96KTS
DSHP 71KTS 93KTS 96KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 50.5W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 47.6W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 45.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Steve]

Yeah, GEM/CMC is north of Cuba vs. GFS across Western Cuba with the resulting outcome similar but farther East in the Gulf.

[chaser1]

One other point on the Euro not being able to pick a clear point and/or maintain genesis...... When the UK and the BAM's came out, I though that I noticed that the UK looked to "lag" behind or slower than the BAM models. There might be large variances that occur for each of these models based on where 96L has been initialized - which all of us staring at satellite remain less than positive about - LOL.

I have to think that some development is going to occur given the general model support. I just don't think its realistic yet to literally assume model accuracy until a more finite COC is better established.

[Blown Away]

Yeah, GEM/CMC is north of Cuba vs. GFS across Western Cuba with the resulting outcome similar but farther East in the Gulf.

The CMC weakens as it goes through Hispaniola then explodes near the Keys... If this CMC run had missed the big island it would have been historic near the Keys... Thank goodness it's just the CMC... Seems the models are picking up decent upper level conditions west of 65 and the SST are boiling...

[jlauderdal]

Yeah, GEM/CMC is north of Cuba vs. GFS across Western Cuba with the resulting outcome similar but farther East in the Gulf.

The CMC weakens as it goes through Hispaniola then explodes near the Keys... If this CMC run had missed the big island it would have been historic near the Keys... Thank goodness it's just the CMC... Seems the models are picking up decent upper level conditions west of 65 and the SST are boiling...

time for my annual "its great to be in the bullseye this far out" post

one of these times though it isnt going to work

anyway, good luck texas, upper gulf coast or north carolina with this one

[Blown Away]

72 Hour forecast position...

[blp]

Fresh 12z Ukmet graphic shows the system getting smashed against Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Good point and would have to agree. To be honest, the EURO 144 hour 500mb not only somewhat mirrors the GFS, but has the cut off low even further south, all the more degrading whatever ridge might have been there. It would seem foolish to go against both the GFS AND the Euro in light of their 144 hr. forecasts. Still......., seems odd to me. Nearly all the energy from further north up in Hudson Bay, appears to have eroded, while well to the Northeast over the North Atlantic, that low is far to the north and east and seemingly no influence whatsoever. There seems to be some westerly flow "upstairs" from 200mb that the models are showing partially maintaining the more upper level feature off of New England, yet even most of this new energy at the time appears to be getting pulled way to the north and over Hudson Bay and shooting eastward towards Europe from there. I'm just thinking perhaps, that this East Coast feature will be a weaker and more 200-400mb feature.

The GEFS (GFS ensembles) is also showing a large weakness over the Western Atlantic and Bahamas area a week from now. The global models have been showing this weakness for days now and in the medium range:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS up next. Run starts in about 6 minutes...

[northjaxpro]

Good point and would have to agree. To be honest, the EURO 144 hour 500mb not only somewhat mirrors the GFS, but has the cut off low even further south, all the more degrading whatever ridge might have been there. It would seem foolish to go against both the GFS AND the Euro in light of their 144 hr. forecasts. Still......., seems odd to me. Nearly all the energy from further north up in Hudson Bay, appears to have eroded, while well to the Northeast over the North Atlantic, that low is far to the north and east and seemingly no influence whatsoever. There seems to be some westerly flow "upstairs" from 200mb that the models are showing partially maintaining the more upper level feature off of New England, yet even most of this new energy at the time appears to be getting pulled way to the north and over Hudson Bay and shooting eastward towards Europe from there. I'm just thinking perhaps, that this East Coast feature will be a weaker and more 200-400mb feature.

The GEFS (GFS ensembles) is also showing a large weakness over the Western Atlantic and Bahamas area a week from now. The global models have been showing this weakness for days now and in the medium range:

Both the GFS and EURO depicting a large weakness one week out. A trough like this would most certainly erode away the ridge and I can't imagine 96L not feeling the weakness should these model solutions verify. Definitely is going to be interesting observing the model runs for the days to come.

[rockyman]

18z GFS is running, you can follow it here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Good point and would have to agree. To be honest, the EURO 144 hour 500mb not only somewhat mirrors the GFS, but has the cut off low even further south, all the more degrading whatever ridge might have been there. It would seem foolish to go against both the GFS AND the Euro in light of their 144 hr. forecasts. Still......., seems odd to me. Nearly all the energy from further north up in Hudson Bay, appears to have eroded, while well to the Northeast over the North Atlantic, that low is far to the north and east and seemingly no influence whatsoever. There seems to be some westerly flow "upstairs" from 200mb that the models are showing partially maintaining the more upper level feature off of New England, yet even most of this new energy at the time appears to be getting pulled way to the north and over Hudson Bay and shooting eastward towards Europe from there. I'm just thinking perhaps, that this East Coast feature will be a weaker and more 200-400mb feature.

The GEFS (GFS ensembles) is also showing a large weakness over the Western Atlantic and Bahamas area a week from now. The global models have been showing this weakness for days now and in the medium range:

Both the GFS and EURO depicting a large weakness one week out. A trough like this would most certainly erode away the ridge and I can't imagine 96L not feeling the weakness should these model solutions verify. Definitely is going to be interesting observing the model runs for the days to come.

My yearly vacation to eastern PA is coming up. Last time we went we ended up coming hime early because of Irene. My mom does not want a repeat. So, position and intensity of the weakness is key.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS out through 108 hours looks more to the right (north) of 12Z GFS and has it heading WNW over the southern tip of Haiti...saved image: