ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[AJC3]

One idea might be to *not* issue full advisory packages on systems below TS strength, but instead 6 hourly statements/analyses - I think this is sort of what JMA does (not 100 percent sure on this). That would allow them to be a little more liberal as to what they do and don't call a depression.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in association with a
low pressure area located just west-northwest of Bermuda.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to
increasingly strong upper-level winds. This low should move
generally northward during the next couple of days at a faster
forward speed. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[wxman57]

As for 97L, Bones has seen enough. He says he's had enough of this dud year, too. We could still see one or two weak storms out in the open Atlantic this month, but we could just as easily have seen the last storm as of Edouard. When was the last time that the season ended in mid September? I'll have to research that.

[Hurricanehink]

As for 97L, Bones has seen enough. He says he's had enough of this dud year, too. We could still see one or two weak storms out in the open Atlantic this month, but we could just as easily have seen the last storm as of Edouard. When was the last time that the season ended in mid September? I'll have to research that.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

In 2002, the final named storm formed on September, but both Lili and Kyle lasted through October. In 1993, the final TD dissipated on September 30th, and the final storm , Harvey, dissipated on September 21st, the same day that Edouard dissipated. As early as that is, the infamous 1914 season ended on September 19th, just five days after it started.

[cycloneye]

ATCF deactivates 97L.

[CrazyC83]

As for 97L, Bones has seen enough. He says he's had enough of this dud year, too. We could still see one or two weak storms out in the open Atlantic this month, but we could just as easily have seen the last storm as of Edouard. When was the last time that the season ended in mid September? I'll have to research that.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

In 2002, the final named storm formed on September, but both Lili and Kyle lasted through October. In 1993, the final TD dissipated on September 30th, and the final storm , Harvey, dissipated on September 21st, the same day that Edouard dissipated. As early as that is, the infamous 1914 season ended on September 19th, just five days after it started.

1914 is not a good comparison since satellites were not around, and ships were scarce due to World War I starting.

[cycloneye]

ATCF reactivated 97L.

AL, 97, 2014100118, , BEST, 0, 395N, 613W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 30, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[Hammy]

Given the appearance for about the last 12+ hours, this looks like a good candidate for post-analysis upgrade, similar to the July 2006 system and the one in 2011, both in the same place.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO:

A non-tropical gale located about 350 miles south-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while this system
interacts with an upper-level low and a surface front during the
next couple of days. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2014100200, , BEST, 0, 400N, 610W, 40, 1005, LO

[CrazyC83]

I agree, this might be worth serious look on whether or not it was a (sub)tropical storm.

[Hammy]

Convection holding very steady if not expanding over the last several hours, surprised this is only given 10% considering we've had a few systems over the last several years upgraded post-analysis in this region with similar satellite presentations.

[AJC3]

I'm sure it'll be looked at pretty closely, but my guess is that it won't be upgraded post-season, due to the lack of convective organization near Bermuda early on, and then getting tangled up with a surface baroclinic/frontal zone later on in its life. However, as alluded to by Hammy, there was a period of time on Wednesday where it redeveloped a sheared ball of convection on it's NE side before it ran into the frontal zone to its north. If it does wind up getting upgraded, I suspect its reanalyzed lifespan will be pretty short, unless they decide to go all the way back to when it was near Bermuda as a tight swirl with sporadic, and rather weak convective banding.

It's IR presentation right now reminds me a little bit of a system from July 6-7 2002 that was never upgraded due it developing along a frontal zone in the subtropics. Like 97L, this really wasn't a true "frontal cyclone", had an even better satellite presentation IMO.

[cycloneye]

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 330 miles
south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing gale force
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low is
merging with a frontal system and is not expected to acquire
tropical cyclone characteristics. Little motion of this system is
expected during the next few days as it interacts with and becomes
absorbed by an upper-level low approaching from the northeast coast
of the United States. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[cycloneye]

ATCF deactivated the invest.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm sure it'll be looked at pretty closely, but my guess is that it won't be upgraded post-season, due to the lack of convective organization near Bermuda early on, and then getting tangled up with a surface baroclinic/frontal zone later on in its life. However, as alluded to by Hammy, there was a period of time on Wednesday where it redeveloped a sheared ball of convection on it's NE side before it ran into the frontal zone to its north. If it does wind up getting upgraded, I suspect its reanalyzed lifespan will be pretty short, unless they decide to go all the way back to when it was near Bermuda as a tight swirl with sporadic, and rather weak convective banding.

It's IR presentation right now reminds me a little bit of a system from July 6-7 2002 that was never upgraded due it developing along a frontal zone in the subtropics. Like 97L, this really wasn't a true "frontal cyclone", had an even better satellite presentation IMO.

Odds of development should of peaked at 20-30% at least just by looking at that satellite loop.

[Hammy]

Is there any way to get any sort of surface/satellite data for this?

[Sanibel]

Naked swirl outbreak!