ATL: GONZALO - Models

[hurricaneCW]

This time of year these strong troughs can actually really go negative tilt and actually pull the storm further west instead of a quick shove so it's something to monitor and never ignore the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

Follows 99L....

Yeah, exactly how reliable are those BAMS models? So far this season and last season they have done a mediocre job blowing up just about every tropical wave rolling off Africa and sending them north too soon.

[SFLcane]

[Alyono]

12Z EC shows development within the next 48 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very complex UL pattern over the next week. Waveguide gets all wonky with the ET transition of Vongfong over WPAC and subsequent downstream amplification. EC and GFS have large differences in regard to the speed of the trough over CONUS (will it cut off or not?). All these things will be key in regard to the westward extent of 90L. As a result, I wouldn't put too much stock into the models beyond 96 hours at this time.

[Nimbus]

The islands may still be at risk if it doesn't track NNW behind 99l.
Only one run had it track south of Puerto Rico?

[Blown Away]

Nearing Cat 3...

[gatorcane]

ECMWF out through 144 hours, slightly weaker and a touch more to the right. Much bigger CONUS trough tough. Looks like it should shift more east in the long-range. Hits SE Bahamas though.

[SouthDadeFish]

Massive difference at 500 mb between 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro. Trough axis over Illinois in EC and over North Carolina in GFS. As a result, the ridging to the NE of 90L is much more eroded in the GFS although both models have the TC in very close proximity in 120 hours.

12Z EC @ 120 hours:



12Z GFS @ 120 hours:

[SFLcane]

Don't buy any of those intensity models...European developes this slowly staying further south.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 144 Hours

[gatorcane]

Slow WNW movement, 168 hours below, deepening...

[Alyono]

EC has 992mb in 162 hours

Very small system so this is probably a cane in the Bahamas

[Blown Away]

[Alyono]

at 168 hours, this makes a HARD turn to the north

986mb

[Riptide]

168 stalled and strengthening

[Hammy]

Looks like this run is very slightly stronger than the previous one so far, I'm assuming that's the reasoning for the more northward movement?

[blp]

Trough is lifting out fast.

[SFLcane]

Door wide open! Should recurve very easily nothing there to drive this further westward. Still feel its unlikely 90L comes close to FL. Bahamas may need to watch though.

[blp]

I wonder if the small size will impact it feeling the trough as much.