WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Hints of an eye?

[supercane4867]

Hints of an eye?

There was intermittent appearance of a mid-level eye feature on Guam radar this morning but the center is moving out of range now

[euro6208]

According to KNES, center still appears to be at the leading edge of the deep convection basically sheared off to the east.

If it can manage to consolidate under the convection, I think we could see something powerful.

[dexterlabio]

JMA is expecting Rammasun to be a full-fledged typhoon east of Bicol region.

[dexterlabio]

According to KNES, center still appears to be at the leading edge of the deep convection basically sheared off to the east.

If it can manage to consolidate under the convection, I think we could see something powerful.

Yes, LLCC is slowly catching up with the deep convection.

[stormcruisin]

Guess that blows xtyphooncyclonex's and dexterlabio's shear and dry air forecast up

[euro6208]

Still far from the Philippines but I predict this will peak and make landfall as a category 4 typhoon with 125 knots. Any body think this is too low or high?

[dexterlabio]

Guess that blows xtyphooncyclonex's and dexterlabio's shear and dry air forecast up

Too soon for that, my friend. Has a long way to go... I never said with certainty it will totally wither off, I was just skeptical about the GFS solution of an intense typhoon. But I'm willing to eat crow and gear up if that verifies...could pose a threat to our area this week..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Guess that blows xtyphooncyclonex's and dexterlabio's shear and dry air forecast up

My point was there was increasing shear and a little dry air to the northwest preventing a rapid intensification for 24 hours. So, I never said that it will ever hinder the development nor Rammasun would weaken. There is no guarantee YET.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A typhoon Durian repeat likely???

TS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 12 July 2014

<Analyses at 12/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E142°40'(142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E139°50'(139.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E137°20'(137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E127°40'(127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SSD floater for Rammasun is down.

[Alyono]

most certainly better organized, though I'll need a loop to be sure, give me a few minutes

[Alyono]

Just had a look at a vis loop... the center still appears to be east of the convection

[cycloneye]

JTWC is stil at TD.

[Hurricane_Luis]

SSD floater for Rammasun is down.

Its not down, they just have not put the link on the main page yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[jaguarjace]

SSD floater for Rammasun is down.

SSD haven't been maintaining their floater homepage properly but the floater is still active through this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09W/09W_floater.html

I've been trying to contact SSD to link their Japan sector to the MTSAT page and add more sectors to the MTSAT page but no news yet.

Edit: Use the directory instead of the homepage http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/

[stormcruisin]

last night this could not make the grade as a TS




tonight this de-coupled is a JMA TS.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 09:00z warning.

WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TD 09W HAS NOT IMPROVED IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE LEADING WESTERN EDGE
CONTINUES TO FLARE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A 120356 GMI 36GHZ
MICROWAVE CONCURS WITH THE MSI LOOP AS THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AROUND A SLOPPY LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE
POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP WHILE POSITION
FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REMAIN
AT 30 KNOTS. TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, POSSIBLY REACHING
100 KNOTS BUT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AS IT FALLS BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//

[dexterlabio]

It's now looking symmetrical, definitely more organized than it was yesterday. Latest DT analysis from JTWC shows a 2.5, so the next warning from them will likely show a TS again...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

MUCH BETTER, center is now at the convection.