ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[SFLcane]

Intensifying TC heading for sfl..

[Alyono]

looks to be a hurricane in Miami

[Jevo]

12z GFS +144



12z GFS +150

[chaser1]

starting to crank up in the Florida Straits in 120 hours

Yeah it looks to be strengthening as a TS near the Florida Keys next Monday night on this run.

I don't know, If it gets left temporarily in a COL as the trough pulls out while waiting for the ridge to start to rebuild to its north, then I can see a strong system pushing west over S. Florida or the Keys. That said, I'm still not buying the strength of the trough and the latest 500mb runs not only do not leave a 576 cutoff low off New England, but instead are now depicting most of the energy already pulling to the NE with a weaker negative tilted trough. Whats left of this trough is then starting to pull up at 96 hours with 500mb winds along Carolina coast nearly Northerly under the building S.E. U.S. mid level high.

I think the GFS is underplaying the 594 high presently building west just north of 96L and I see future models will pick up and adjust more southerly again, putting Jamaica & Cuba more under the gun. Then, its look out Northern Gulf Coast

[gatorcane]

Another look, 156 hours saved image, MSLP anomaly graphic:

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS then shows this as a tropical storm crawling up NW through Florida. Located north of Orlando in 186 hours.

[Steve H.]

My general rule of thumb is that cyclones never go where they're first progged to. First we need a storm to form. Then we can see how the models handle it. Upper air pattern does look favorable though, which is a bit disturbing. Another Labor day storm for someone????



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[SFLcane]

Yep cane...

[PTrackerLA]

I just don't see this storm turning north in the Florida Peninsula with a strong High building over the mid-Atlantic/NE. Could be a dangerous scenario because storms love to crank heading WNW under a high into the gulf...

[deltadog03]

I just don't see this storm turning north in the Florida Peninsula with a strong High building over the mid-Atlantic/NE. Could be a dangerous scenario because storms love to crank heading WNW under a high into the gulf...

POST of the year? lol ok, at least this model run. With that upper pattern this will NOT climb the coast of Florida. It would pull a west turn and go into the GOM and then turn northward toward the middle GOM, but whatev for now.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +168 Crummy day at Disney World

[tropicwatch]

Once this thing decides to consolidate and we have a distinct center of circulation, the models should have a better grasp on direction. Especially when we are talking about a week or less before it approaches the US.

[Comanche]

TX/LA border yesterday, Miami today, where will it be tomorrow?????

Time to play............

[CaneCurious]

I just don't see this storm turning north in the Florida Peninsula with a strong High building over the mid-Atlantic/NE. Could be a dangerous scenario because storms love to crank heading WNW under a high into the gulf...

POST of the year? lol ok, at least this model run. With that upper pattern this will NOT climb the coast of Florida. It would pull a west turn and go into the GOM and then turn northward toward the middle GOM, but whatev for now.

Going through the straits and into the GOM scares me to death. There is lots of warm water down there to spin up a dangerous TC quickly!

[windnrain]

I've been waiting to see which storm would be the first real gulf threat of the year. Correct me if I'm wrong but conditions have appeared favorable there for a little while now.

[meriland23]

I don't know about this. If GFS assumes Texas 12 hrs ago and Florida now ..it seems like a way of saying " I have no idea ".

[stormlover2013]

hey lol you never know, lets see what the great euro shows in about 2 hours.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +192 - All the model talk is great, but let's keep personal forecasts to the discussion board

[tropicwatch]

Lot of lows on that graphic!

[Blown Away]

It appears the 12z GFS takes 96L's energy through/skirting the N coast of Hispaniola which likely keeps it weak... Once in the SE Bahamas it ramps up quickly... If 96L makes it's way to SFL, it's track over or through Hispaniola would likely make a huge difference in the intensity... JMHO