ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kat61]

some good rotation coming ashore just east of bald head beach .. may be a water spout coming ashore..

New Hanover and Brunswick county have tornado warning.. looks like Fort Fisher near the ferry

per wect.'

[Jevo]

Watching via radar in the last few updates over a course of an hour, I am beginning to see an East of due North component. the storm is paralleling more along the coast line

[cycloneye]

Moving NNE per the two Air Force passes so far.

[tolakram]

Looks like it's made the NE turn IMO. I'm still thinking Beaufort might get hit.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

saved radar

[weathernerdguy]

Can I please see a recap of this storm since it was upgraded?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I said it last night, and I am sticking by it so far. I think first landfall is going to be Bald Head Island or Southport NC. Keep in mind, the beaches of Brunswick County are south facing beaches, and with the models trending west, Arthur could make a pit stop on his way to the Outer Banks.

A hit that far south and west would bring it inland into NC and not exiting until south of Virginia Beach. No model is showing that solution and the euro, though it's shifted west, has a left bias and is still just barely offshore. Now Beaufort, in my opinion, does need to keep a close watch on this one because a landfall there seems like at least an outside possibility.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This model shows it pretty clearly. Those are the Brunswick County beaches on the north side of the storm with Bald Head Island Just east of 78W.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 01L_10.png

Still think I am totally crazy Tolakram? LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Watching via radar in the last few updates over a course of an hour, I am beginning to see an East of due North component. the storm is paralleling more along the coast line

not quite enough to keep wilmington out of a portion of the eyewall.. recon fix thus far has it still straight at wilmington.. maybe the next fix will show more of a turn... but not looking like it has enough turn to keep it on the nhc track..

[tolakram]

Recon appears to confirm N/NE movement now.

[tropicwatch]

Darlings By The Sea

Station ID: KNCKUREB2

Lat: 34.00 Lon: -77.90 Elev: 16 ft

Current
Forecast
Graph





75.5 °

Feels Like 76° F






38.0 mph

Wind From ENE

Gusts 41.0 mph



Dew Point: -° F

Humidity: 97 %


Precip Rate: 0.11 in/hr

Precip Accum: 0.34 in


Pressure: 29.83 in

Visibility: - mi

[HurriGuy]

I am too seeing a more easterly component in its movement.

[Jevo]

Looks like it's made the NE turn IMO. I'm still thinking Beaufort might get hit.

Don't look now.. but the HWRF has been saying that since Monday and the GFS is an agreement as well as of 12z with Beaufort.. An hour till Prince Euro runs

[Batt2fd]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon appears to confirm N/NE movement now.

yeah draw a straight line between the 2 points goes right through wilmington.. its going to have to turn more than that.. hurricane force winds probably going to begin coming ashore near willmington over the next couple regarless they are only 30 to 40 mile offshore atm

[seahawkjd]

Looks like it's made the NE turn IMO. I'm still thinking Beaufort might get hit.

Don't look now.. but the HWRF has been saying that since Monday and the GFS is an agreement as well as of 12z with Beaufort.. An hour till Prince Euro runs

Charging up what equipment I have so I can give updates. I'm in a solid brick structure well above sea level.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

some good rotation coming ashore just east of bald head beach .. may be a water spout coming ashore..

New Hanover and Brunswick county have tornado warning.. looks like Fort Fisher near the ferry

I'm watching that cell come right at me right now. It is pretty dark and ominous looking, but I don't see a funnel cloud yet.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Can I please see a recap of this storm since it was upgraded?

Arthur was upgraded to a Hurricane at 900AM UTC. Since then it has steadily strengthened to a 90 mph hurricane, which is just below Category 2 Status.

[NDG]

At least the pressure is not dropping for now.

URNT12 KNHC 031636
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/16:17:00Z
B. 32 deg 37 min N
078 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2920 m
D. 70 kt
E. 302 deg 13 nm
F. 028 deg 55 kt
G. 303 deg 15 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 13 C / 3044 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 09
MAX FL WIND 79 KT 058 / 10 NM 15:10:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT 005 / 18 NM 16:22:30Z

[Aric Dunn]

Another cell that has some rotation heading for wrightsville beach still offshore but if it holds together probably another warning will go out..

[TheAustinMan]

Looks like the southern eyewall is now wrapped and intensifying.

[Aric Dunn]

At least the pressure is not dropping for now.

URNT12 KNHC 031636
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/16:17:00Z
B. 32 deg 37 min N
078 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2920 m
D. 70 kt
E. 302 deg 13 nm
F. 028 deg 55 kt
G. 303 deg 15 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 13 C / 3044 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 09
MAX FL WIND 79 KT 058 / 10 NM 15:10:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 69 KT 005 / 18 NM 16:22:30Z

They never sampled the se quad.. likely because they dont think its going affect anyone???