ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Generally it seems these unfavorable conditions have been around for years, at what point do we conclude an overall pattern change has ocurred from the active period that started in the mid 1990's

Yea, I agree, it's now starting to seem like having a hurricane develop in the Atlantic now is against the norm during hurricane season..While we don't want to see hurricanes damage or hurt anyone, hurricanes can provide lots of moisture to drought stricken areas...And with lots of states already suffering from droughts, no more tropical development can be a bad thing.....

[tropicwatch]

Well whats left of TD2 is a nice looking wave with moisture. If it makes it to the GOM or BOC, we might have to take another look at her.

[Airboy]

Still looks like it have some blow ups and vorticity when i looks at sat/maps, how is the condition for any development coming days when it gets further west?

[wxman57]

Still looks like it have some blow ups and vorticity when i looks at sat/maps, how is the condition for any development coming days when it gets further west?

It's heading into a region of extremely strong low-level wind flow (35-40kts at 850mb). There is little chance of it surviving as an identifiable feature.

[Alyono]

i think the active period ended a few years ago and might be the shortest active period ever. we got quite lucky as the active period of 1933-1964 featured many more major canes hitting the US. most of the time since 1995 we have had a protective trough in the west atlantic.

Many of those "majors" were really cat 1s and 2s with low pressures.

Isabel and irene both would have been majors in that period as only pressure was used to assign categories

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

i think the active period ended a few years ago and might be the shortest active period ever. we got quite lucky as the active period of 1933-1964 featured many more major canes hitting the US. most of the time since 1995 we have had a protective trough in the west atlantic.

The past few years haven't really deviated much from the norm. 2010 was obviously hyperactive, with 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. 2011 featured 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. 2012 featured 12 hurricanes but only 2 major hurricanes, but it's likely that enhanced convection in the EPAC (via that two month period of equatorial warming) enhanced the TUTT which increased shear across the tropical Atlantic. That would explain why most storms formed north of 25N. 2013 was truly the only oddball in terms of numbers.

One thing that I should point out, however, is that comparing 500mb relative humidity in the 2006-2013 period to the 2000-2005 period shows that the central and eastern Atlantic is much drier. The cause of that, I don't know, but this year looks to be following suit. It's actually a bit surprising considering that the Africa Sahel region is returning to a period of above-average rainfall, which would favor stronger and more convective tropical waves. The Gulf of Guinea and Indian Ocean have generally both been cooler than average for the past several years, which would also favor a moist central/eastern Atlantic.

But that seems unrelated to the AMO (active/inactive era).

[blp]

Good post. I agree 100%.

[Steve820]

Hopefully it doesn't become named. I don't want any name-stealers. But, at least it became a tropical cyclone!

Looks like my wish came true. It didn't become named!