ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ravyrn]

Can anyone take over at the recon thread? I need to leave the house this evening and will be gone for about an hour.

[supercane4867]

Convection waning right now...needs some fresh hot towers to produce colder cloudtops

[NDG]

Will the next plane be arriving around 9?

Perhaps a little bit before 9pm EDT.

More like around 8 pm EDT

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
700 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...EYEWALL OF ARTHUR JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

[tolakram]

Convection waning right now...needs some fresh hot towers to produce colder cloudtops

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

I see new convection firing.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the motion over the last or so.. as you can see no real wobble to right the convection changing all the time can be very deceiving. still right on 5pm track (left of the 11am).




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[supercane4867]

Convection waning right now...needs some fresh hot towers to produce colder cloudtops

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

I see new convection firing.

Not looking that great compare to hours ago on IR

[Sanibel]

This is an interesting one because it has pretty good unbroken core banding.

[Alyono]

It's interacting with land. May not intensify much until it clears North Carolina

[Time_Zone]

I think it peaked about 2 hours ago.

Looking ragged to me.

[Jevo]

Mark Sudduth with Hurricanetrack.com has his webcam running live in the chase vehicle from near Rodanthe Pier on cape Hatteras.. http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

[Alyono]

I think it peaked about 2 hours ago.

Looking ragged to me.

STOP DOWNPLAYING THIS!

[windnrain]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-48

Wobbling back to the north.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's interacting with land. May not intensify much until it clears North Carolina

I agree. I do think it will intensify a bit more as it goes a bit further out to sea....It's still been fun to track though and watch develop. Hopefully everyone will be safe and out of harms way....

[Time_Zone]

I think it peaked about 2 hours ago.

Looking ragged to me.

STOP DOWNPLAYING THIS!

Huh? I merely said I wouldn't be surprised if it already peaked. It's current presentation isn't as impressive as it was just a couple hours ago.

Downplaying? I'd say no. Merely my opinion.

[supercane4867]

It maybe intensifying slowly or even leveled off but I don‘t see it anywhere weaker than 2 hours ago, still a high chance of Cat 2 landfall at this point

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KatDaddy]

Banding looks good on radar. Would not be surprised to see a little strengthening to 95 or 100MPH with tonight's advisory. Still some dry air on the SW quadrant as the eyewall continues to wrap around.

[Hammy]

It's probably in the process of reorganizing slightly, probably just the cycle of working out the dry air that it's been going through for a few days now.

Also, did the NOAA plane have to return due to instrument problems?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, I was just sitting outside, sipping on a cold one, and watching the rain and wind blow through the trees, and got to thinking about the whole lack of a hurricane warning and cat 2 thing. Does anyone think it possible that NHC did not raise the classification to cat 2 because they did not issue a warning for the Brunswick County, and New Hanover County beaches, or has the NHC just gotten that good this year on predictions?

[wxman57]

Mark Sudduth with Hurricanetrack.com has his webcam running live in the chase vehicle from near Rodanthe Pier on cape Hatteras.. http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

Unfortunately, this will be another middle of the night hurricane. Won't be able to see much.