EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

#242 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 6:34 am

Latest microwave pass. 2 hours old.

#243 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:24 am

HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina has continued to rapidly intensify overnight. Its
well-defined eye is now completely surrounded by cloud tops as cold
as -80C, and the current intensity is estimated to be around 125 kt
based mainly on objective ADT guidance. This makes Cristina the
second category 4 hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season.

This special advisory is being issued to update the initial
intensity and the intensity forecast during the first 24 hours.
The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged from the 0900 UTC
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1230Z 16.4N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

#244 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:24 am

ZCZC MIATCUEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CRISTINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
500 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CRISTINA HAS CONTINUED
TO INTENSIFY...AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...
230 KM/H...CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...TO UPDATE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CRISTINA.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 106.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

NNNN

#245 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:28 am

Glad they did a special advisory. Was wondering If they would.

ADT raw numbers almost at 7.0 now.

euro6208 · #246 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:28 am

Personally I would place the intensity to 130 knots, equivalent to a category 4 Super Typhoon!

Eye continues to warm and cloud tops continue to cool.

Dvorak also have a hard time with midget storms...nonetheless this is a very powerful category 4 now!

#247 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:30 am

Speechless. HOLY CRAP!!!! 2 EI storms and it's mid-June. Wow. This so makes up for the 1 major in 2013.

#248 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:32 am

Was hoping to wake up to something special and she delivered! Just wow at the EPAC, who thought she would go for cat 4 a few days ago? :cheesy:

This basin man, go with the most bullish model this year!

mrbagyo · #249 Postby **mrbagyo** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:34 am

and the sunlight is coming.. :sun:

can'y wait for those visibles...

#250 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:34 am

Looks better in each frame. Could this go the rest of the way?

#251 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:39 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Looks better in each frame. Could this go the rest of the way?

Certainly can. I personally would put it at 150 mph right now.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#252 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:41 am

Is Dvorak at T7.0 yet? Or just T6.5?

euro6208 · #253 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:52 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Is Dvorak at T7.0 yet? Or just T6.5?

6.0 from KNES but ADT is at 6.4=124.6 knots...rounded off and you get 125 knots, the current intensity...

xtyphooncyclonex · #254 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:53 am

I wonder if this could be stronger than Amanda. This is such an amazing hurricane. 2 Category 4 hurricanes recorded before June 15? Just wow :eek:

. Time to give props to the HWRF for predicting this to be a major hurricane.

Convection is improving and is cooling, and the eye is clear and very well-defined! This could be our first category 5!

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #255 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:56 am

Making a run at Category 5 intensity.

#256 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:02 am

I'm wondering if the ATCF makes this 130 knts. It is only looking better and better.

euro6208 · #257 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:09 am

WOW! look how small cristina is if you can find it :double:

euro6208 · #258 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:15 am

03E CRISTINA 140612 1200 16.4N 106.8W EPAC 125 940

12Z update in. Cristina at 125 knots!

xtyphooncyclonex · #259 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:16 am

Does this also have a record for being the smallest category 4 ePac hurricane?

xtyphooncyclonex · #260 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:18 am

euro6208 wrote:03E CRISTINA 140612 1200 16.4N 106.8W EPAC 125 940

12Z update in. Cristina at 125 knots!

Cristina was a upgraded to a category 4 with 125 kt winds about 30 minutes ago by the NHC.

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