WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[Equilibrium]

Is that a eyewall mesovortices displaying in the above post.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive intensification from 50 kts yesterday and now at 100 kts!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°55'(14.9°)
E136°30'(136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E134°50'(134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E131°50'(131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Woah!!! Seriously? The eye has warmed A LOT and the convection is cooling. If this will become a category 4 or even super typhoon later today, it would not be surprising as it looks like it now!!!! After days of it spending time over unfavorable upper-level winds and shear, it is now over an area of rapidly decreasing shear.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Eyewall convection continues between -70C to -80C while the eye has shot up to +6C. Halong is likely a 125kt+ typhoon.

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ22 KNES 012107
TCSWNP

A. 11W (HALONG)

B. 01/2032Z

C. 14.8N

D. 136.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...RAGGED LG EYE EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=5.5.
MET=5.0 WITH PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1720Z 14.8N 137.3E AMSU
01/1758Z 14.8N 137.3E TMI


...SALEMI

this will definitely make a run at super

[RL3AO]

Raw DTs approaching T7.0

Just had some WMG appear in the eye. Still intensifying.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Make that eye temperature 13C.

Beautiful.

[Equilibrium]

Raw DTs approaching T7.0

Just had some WMG appear in the eye. Still intensifying.

yeah and its still expandng.



Is a very high end cat4

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane]

Amazing rapid intensification while everyone else is focused on Bertha

Latest Dvoraks from KNES and JTWC at 6.0, which would correspond to 115kt:
TXPQ22 KNES 020346
TCSWNP

A. 11W (HALONG)
B. 02/0232Z
C. 14.9N
D. 136.1E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. DT DEFINED BY EYE
SCENE WITH A WHITE SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE YIELDING A 6.0 WITH A WARM
MEDIUM GRAY EYE AND A WHITE RING GIVING A +1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR A FINAL DT
OF 7.0. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO.
PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AVERAGE 6HR DT OF
6.0 WHICH BREAKS THE CHANGE OF 2.0 IN 18HR RULE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
01/2301Z 14.8N 136.6E SSMIS
...LIDDICK

TPPN11 PGTW 020329
A. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG)
B. 02/0232Z
C. 14.9N
D. 136.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
(+1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT WAS 6.5; MET
WAS 4.5. DBO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS). CONSTRAINTS
(CHANGE OF 2.5 IN 24HRS) AND (FT WITHIN 1.0 OF MET) WERE BROKEN
DUE TO WARMING EYE, COOLING SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS, AND
SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE OF STORM INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/2301Z 14.9N 136.7E SSMS
02/0024Z 14.9N 136.4E MMHS

BTW, always disliked the JMA prognostic discussion which discusses hardly anything. To wit,
WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[RL3AO]

About right. Pretty clear T7.0 for a DT. Of course the system has constraints. Think 6.0/115kt is too low though.

Still an increase of 2.5/18hr and 3.0/24hr is very very impressive.

[somethingfunny]

Category 3 Halong!

I just drooled on my keyboard a little

[mrbagyo]

oh... well

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC upgraded Halong to a category 4 on the BT. WOW!

WP, 11, 2014080206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1357E, 115, 937, TY, 50, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45, 1007, 200, 20, 0, 0,

SOURCE: ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd20vxt/hwrf-init/decks/bwp112014.dat

11W HALONG 140802 0600 14.9N 135.7E WPAC 115 937

SOURCE: http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[Equilibrium]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 14:59:40 N Lon : 135:37:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 930.6mb/132.2kt

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Halong has intensified per the JMA.

TY 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N14°55'(14.9°)
E135°40'(135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E133°50'(133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E131°50'(131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[Equilibrium]

If my maths are correct 85 knots over 10 mins = only 96.9 knots 1min sustained.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: If my maths are correct 85 knots over 10 mins = only 96.9 knots 1min sustained.

JMA has a different scale. 85 knots from JMA may actually mean 110-120 kts in 1-min, and the tradional x1.14 rule is not applied from the JMA cyclone wind scale. It is called the Koba scale.

[Equilibrium]

Thanks for clearing that up it makes more sence at that intensity.

[somethingfunny]

This is a FAR cry from anything resembling scientific accuracy, but I think that whatever value JMA assigns to the wind gusts is generally going to be close to what NHC or JTWC would assign the 1-minute windspeeds to be.