ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

BT up to 90kts - was this going through an ERC and could that indicate it was stronger than the official 75 kts earlier?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has
strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight. A dropsonde
released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at
0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the
corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a
major hurricane. This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the
UW-CIMSS ADT. On the other hand, low-level wind data from the
dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an
intensity estimate between 75-80 kt. As a compromise between the
data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

Environmental conditions should support some additional
intensification during the next couple of days. Modest
southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but
the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours. In addition, the
hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3
days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching
major hurricane status between 24-48 hours. After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening
trend is expected by day 3. Edouard is forecast to be over 22C
water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose
its deep convection and become post-tropical. At this point, it
appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones
over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the
forecast period.

The initial motion remains 305/13 kt. Edouard is expected to turn
northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and
then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various
models. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model
consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 26.9N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=27&lon=-56&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=none

[weathernerdguy]

Such a beautiful storm.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track remains at 90kts.

AL, 06, 2014091512, , BEST, 0, 270N, 551W, 90, 966, HU

[USTropics]

Oh, how it's been a while. Looking great on vis this morning:

[Hurricaneman]

A picturesque storm in the Atlantic Basin, perish the thought

On Topic: this is one of the best looking storms since 2011 and this might have an outside shot at being a cat 4 hurricane but the realist in me says 125mph at peak

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Edouard should become a major hurricane later today.

Recon is en route.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Saved loop

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

...CATEGORY 2 EDOUARD MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES




HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger
and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly
symmetric inner-core convective pattern. Despite the improved
structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so
the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt. Three NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and
will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and
structure.

Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13
kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is
expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to
its north shifts eastward and weakens. By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast. A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is
predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is
steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the
northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left
of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA
guidance.

Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours
while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions. Beyond that
time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear
should cause the system to weaken steadily. Post-tropical
transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be
over sea surface temperature below 23 C. The post-tropical phase of
the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 27.3N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[galaxy401]

Looks like a major hurricane to me. We'll see once the NOAA planes arrive.

The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to NOAA products.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA3. Eye at 15:12:22Z:



Image Credit: NOAA-AOC

[supercane4867]

000
URNT12 KWBC 151531
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062014
A. 15/15:12:17Z
B. 27 deg 16 min N
055 deg 43 min W
C. NA
D. 83 kt
E. 315 deg 14 nm
F. 057 deg 101 kt
G. 320 deg 26 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 13 C / 2352 m
J. 19 C / 2598 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C35
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WB06A EDOUARD OB 08
MAX FL WIND 101 KT 320 / 26 NM 15:05:46Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 136 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 10 KTS

[supercane4867]

I always love to watch small and adorable storms like this goes harmless out to sea. Definitely the best looking hurricane in the Atlantic since Michael

[tolakram]

Wow, looking really good and a the latest sat pic had a great angle into the eye.



live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=28&lon=-56&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=none

[tolakram]

from the FTP site: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[supercane4867]

Recon found 115kt flight level winds in the NE quadrant. We should have Major Hurricane Edouard very soon

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA3. Eye at 16:30:42Z:



From NOAA2. Eye at 16:25Z:



From NOAA2. Eye at 16:50Z:



Image Credit: NOAA-AOC

[HurricaneRyan]

Wow! It really got its act together. Indeed, best looking hurricane since Michael. But Arthur looked really good too!

[Nimbus]

Huge eye wonder if we will see a pentagram pattern develop?