ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Very small & tight eyelike feature still very evident on radar:

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... xo1dnb.jpg

You don't have to put the red x as is very clear where the center is.

[NDG]

Here is the link to the radar I have looking at, is a higher resolution, make sure to speed up the loop for the best effects, this is very nice from the Barbados Met Center to put up on their site from a combination of radar sites in the eastern Caribbean.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1413156571

[tolakram]

Good grief, I spend the day busy doing work and here is not only a TS heading to the islands but forecast to hit PR as a hurricane! Be careful out there, I really hope this stays weaker than expected.

[gatorcane]

WV floater shows some really dry air to the north. I think it is ingesting some of that as the convection canopy is starting to look a bit ragged. Could be why the global models really don't ramp it up quickly thankfully. Even the HWRF doesn't ramp it up until once north of the islands.

[Alyono]

the global models do not ramp this up because it is too small to be properly resolved by them

[NDG]

WV floater shows some really dry air to the north. I think it is ingesting some of that as the convection canopy is starting to look a bit ragged. Could be why the global models really don't ramp it up quickly thankfully. Even the HWRF doesn't ramp it up until once north of the islands.

http://i62.tinypic.com/vwzvpj.jpg

Actually the latest 18z HWRF gets Gonzalo to become a hurricane in 24-36 hrs.

[SouthDadeFish]

There is no way the global models can resolve the inner core of Gonzalo. The HWRF would be the best bet, but it is... well... the HWRF. If there isn't shear to inject the dry air into the core of Gonzalo, it will be able to moisten its environment over time via convection. This won't be a rapid process, but having the tight inner core already will help. It is currently in a very fragile state though.

[cycloneye]

Well folks. I have a interesting factor or wildcard that anyone has mentioned and that is the Island of Montserratt where the Soufriere volcano has been active for the past few years with a big eruption at 2011. But right now is moderately active with ash going up 24/7. The question is if the volcano have any effects especially if the center moves over the volcano and is not out of the question it does that.

[Gustywind]

Well folks. I have a interesting factor or wildcard that anyone has mentioned and that is the Island of Montserratt where a volcano has been active for the past few years with a big eruption at 2011. But right now is moderately active with ash going up 24/7. The question is if the volcano have any effects especially if the center moves over the volcano and is not out of the question it does that.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/m9ajrt.jpg

I don't know but it's surely interesting. If Gonzalo can move away that should be an excellent news but we're really far away from that utopia.

[fd122]

It looks impressive on the Martinique radar.

[Hammy]

It looks impressive on the Martinique radar.

formative eye has weakened in the last hour or so.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS STRENGHTENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ITS CENTER IS NEAR 16.4N/59.5W AS OF 2100 UTC AND ITS
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 57W-60W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA
NORTHWARD...AFFECTING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Here goes this decade long trend of the storm getting disorganized in very favorable conditions and turning away from any land. It is definitely a good trend and hopefully it stays that way.

[SeGaBob]

When is the next recon flight? I haven't seen anything about that.

[artist]

When is the next recon flight? I haven't seen anything about that.

Monday morning, 6:30

[SeGaBob]

When is the next recon flight? I haven't seen anything about that.

Monday morning, 6:30

Ok thanks.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Storm looks to be weakening to the point where I doubt my own statement earlier about it being close to hurricane strength. Sure wish we had some recon data to see .

[Alyono]

weakening? seriously?

lets not make these kinds of proclamations when a storm is bearing down on land areas, especially when the data indicate otherwise

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

weakening? seriously?

lets not make these kinds of proclamations when a storm is bearing down on land areas, especially when the data indicate otherwise

It is my OPINION and the signature under my post lets everyone know I am no meteorologist just merely voicing my opinion. It is for guys like you to prove me wrong. What does the data say? I see a storm that looks disorganized on satellite and the pressure has gone up the last advisory correct?

[Alyono]

pressure has been dropping all day, not rising. Pressure falling at close to 1 mb per hour