ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2401 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:35 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:So, I was just sitting outside, sipping on a cold one, and watching the rain and wind blow through the trees, and got to thinking about the whole lack of a hurricane warning and cat 2 thing. Does anyone think it possible that NHC did not raise the classification to cat 2 because they did not issue a warning for the Brunswick County, and New Hanover County beaches, or has the NHC just gotten that good this year on predictions?


They didn't raise the classification to cat 2 because recon never found any cat 2 winds at the surface. If I recall correctly, the highest SFMR reading was 82 knots which is roughly 92mph. The passes through the center after that only came up with winds that support an 80mph storm. Winds could have certainly picked up since the last pass as the pressure was still dropping and the winds didn't seem to have responded to the drop in pressure yet.

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Re: Re:

#2402 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Jevo wrote:Mark Sudduth with Hurricanetrack.com has his webcam running live in the chase vehicle from near Rodanthe Pier on cape Hatteras.. http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack


Unfortunately, this will be another middle of the night hurricane. Won't be able to see much.



Always the night time, I really hate it. Spooky, especially after you lose the power.
Last edited by UpTheCreek on Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2403 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:36 pm

Time_Zone wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:I think it peaked about 2 hours ago.

Looking ragged to me.


STOP DOWNPLAYING THIS!


Huh? I merely said I wouldn't be surprised if it already peaked. It's current presentation isn't as impressive as it was just a couple hours ago.

Downplaying? I'd say no. Merely my opinion.


Actually you are forgetting the rules. You should be putting the disclaimer on your comments. Many people who read this thread are not sure who you are and how strongly they should take your opinion since you are not a pro met.
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Re: Re:

#2404 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Jevo wrote:Mark Sudduth with Hurricanetrack.com has his webcam running live in the chase vehicle from near Rodanthe Pier on cape Hatteras.. http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack


Unfortunately, this will be another middle of the night hurricane. Won't be able to see much.


I remember during Ike sitting on my backporch. The wind was blowing pretty well and it blew the top off of a tree next door about 20 feet up but didn't break it off entirely. The rest of the night I just sat and watched it thrashing about in the wind waiting for it to finally break off. It never did. It was fairly entertaining though since power was out and I enjoy viewing the power of mother nature.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2405 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:38 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:So, I was just sitting outside, sipping on a cold one, and watching the rain and wind blow through the trees, and got to thinking about the whole lack of a hurricane warning and cat 2 thing. Does anyone think it possible that NHC did not raise the classification to cat 2 because they did not issue a warning for the Brunswick County, and New Hanover County beaches, or has the NHC just gotten that good this year on predictions?


They would never do something like that. Never. And nobody is better than them at this. For Arthur, so far, they are very, very good.
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#2406 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:39 pm

west eyewall just opened up. Perhaps this now wont become a cat 2 until it clears NC
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Re:

#2407 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:45 pm

Alyono wrote:west eyewall just opened up. Perhaps this now wont become a cat 2 until it clears NC


Too much influence from land at this point?
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#2408 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:48 pm

think the land is hindering this

However, it will almost certainly reintensify and reach peak intensity east of Delaware
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2409 Postby syfr » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:51 pm

NDG wrote:They are 30 miles offshore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoZ023o8y44#t=17


...but the water is only 50' deep.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2410 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:01 pm

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...8 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR PASSING SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...HAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...
79 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 77.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#2411 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:02 pm

recon nearly there..
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2412 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:09 pm

Still at 90MPH for the 7PM EDT advisory. Agree the proximity to the coast is affecting the intensity of Arthur along with some continued dry air entrainment.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2413 Postby theworld » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:15 pm

Inside the eye of #Arthur from #NOAA43 (NOAA P3) Photo credit Nikki Perrini -- July 3, 2014 @NOAA_HurrHunter
https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/sta ... 1423748097
Last edited by theworld on Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2414 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:15 pm

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2415 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:18 pm

977 from recon but they miss the center.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2416 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:19 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Extrap. Sfc. Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)


Where are you getting that from? The last set of data was still out side the center and we haven't gotten any updated data from recon since...
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#2417 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:20 pm

best the radar appearance has looked all day and getting better..
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#2418 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:20 pm

dont tell me that there are comm problems now
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2419 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:22 pm

Are these legit?

001700 3353N 07650W 6962 03008 9919 +069 -065 216092 094 075 026 00
001730 3352N 07648W 6976 03001 9940 +064 -101 216089 093 075 019 00
001800 3351N 07647W 6980 03008 9956 +062 -068 213088 092 071 027 00
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2420 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:22 pm

ozonepete wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:So, I was just sitting outside, sipping on a cold one, and watching the rain and wind blow through the trees, and got to thinking about the whole lack of a hurricane warning and cat 2 thing. Does anyone think it possible that NHC did not raise the classification to cat 2 because they did not issue a warning for the Brunswick County, and New Hanover County beaches, or has the NHC just gotten that good this year on predictions?


They would never do something like that. Never. And nobody is better than them at this. For Arthur, so far, they are very, very good.



Moreover (and I mention this every year on here), it's important to remember that the NHC does NOT unilaterally issue TC warnings for the US. They are coordinated and agreed upon between NHC and the local WFOs. This is done either during coordination calls, which take place one hour before the sechduled advisory, or NHC will actually call beforehand, or during the interim, to coordinate on watches or warnings.
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