WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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#261 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:32 am

somethingfunny wrote:This is a FAR cry from anything resembling scientific accuracy, but I think that whatever value JMA assigns to the wind gusts is generally going to be close to what NHC or JTWC would assign the 1-minute windspeeds to be.

Despite your comment being far from being scientific, I guess you may be right.

Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)

Thus, the 115-knot satellite estimate from the JTWC is 5 knots behind the 10-minute wind gusts the JMA has estimated for Halong. Not much difference. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#262 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:36 am

The JTWC estimates Typhoon Halong to be the 3rd super typhoon of the season, peaking at 130 knots.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.2N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.6N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.4N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.6N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.1N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 135.4E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#263 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:40 am

Impressive VIS image of Typhoon Halong before sunset.

Image
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Equilibrium

#264 Postby Equilibrium » Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:27 am

Impressive VIS image of Typhoon Halong before sunset.


If there was recon i think most people would fall off there chairs with the true intensity of
Halong on that presentation.

Image


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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#265 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:31 am

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TYPHOON "JOSE" (HALONG)
Issued at 7:15 p.m., Saturday, 02 August 2014
The typhoon east of Central Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was named "Jose".

Location of Center:
(as of 7:00 p.m.) 1,250 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.0°N, 135.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 195 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 11 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday afternoon:
1,060 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Monday afternoon:
940 km East of Tuguegarao City
Tuesday afternoon:
810 km Eastof Basco, Batanes

No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10 – 25 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 650 km diameter of the Typhoon.

Typhoon "JOSE" will not yet affect any part of the country. However, the Southwest Monsoon will bring occasional rains over Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Ilocos Region, CALABARZON and MIMAROPA.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#266 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:45 am

Latest Infrared from FNMOC.

Image

Very near category 5 strength!

11W HALONG 140802 1200 15.0N 135.0E WPAC 135 922
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#267 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:07 am

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS

Very impressive
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#268 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:38 am

EVEN MORE..

TY 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N14°55'(14.9°)
E135°05'(135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E131°20'(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
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#269 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:47 am

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 021
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 134.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#270 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:51 am

11W HALONG 140802 1200 15.0N 135.0E WPAC 135 922

:eek: wow...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#271 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:51 am

euro6208 wrote:11W HALONG 140802 1200 15.0N 135.0E WPAC 135 922

:eek: wow...

I posted the warning above FYI
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#272 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:53 am

Unbelieveable strengthening...Last i checked it was upgraded to a major category 3 typhoon with 100 knots and it's already near cat 5 strength!

looking at the latest satellite images, the eye continues to clear out and the cdo continues to expand!
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#273 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:55 am

euro6208 wrote:11W HALONG 140802 1200 15.0N 135.0E WPAC 135 922

:eek: wow...


Is it a Super Typhoon with that?
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#274 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:55 am

7.0 922.9 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

ADT saying solid 5...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#275 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:56 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:
euro6208 wrote:11W HALONG 140802 1200 15.0N 135.0E WPAC 135 922

:eek: wow...


Is it a Super Typhoon with that?


Yes 135 is already a Super Typhoon and latest forecast has this reaching Category 5 strength...

After a hard day's work, I am very happy to see such a magnificent storm..
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Re:

#276 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:13 am

Equilibrium wrote:11W HALONG 140802 0000 14.9N 136.4E WPAC 100 946


After looking at the recon just completed on BERTHA a TS that was sheard unorganised and very weak and still had FMR winds still to support a 45 kt intensity. I have to wonder if if any of these satellite estimates and dvorak techniques are really worth a pinch of salt.



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It does make you wonder.

Weak bertha hasn't got any dvorak numbers above 2.0 to be considered a TS but look what recon found. NHC has entirely stopped mentioning dvorak in it's discussion. Many storms in the atlantic are like this...

Makes you wonder if halong is stronger than what is indicated right now as it's intensity is align with dvorak... :roll:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#277 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:19 am

ahhh. still moving west in a very slow pace... it's been stuck at 15N for quite some time.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#278 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 10:06 am

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 11W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 75 KNOTS (60
TO 135 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 130-NM DIAMETER, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A 29-NM
ROUND EYE
, THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND TRACK MOTION. A 021013Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EXTENSIVE
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 KNOTS (T6.5) TO 140
KNOTS (T7.0). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STY 11W HAS
MAINTAINED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO INSULATE THE CORE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSES DEPICT A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR
POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING
FROM TAIWAN TO ABOUT 131E LONGITUDE. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO
THE POSITION OF TS 12W, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STY 11W TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
UKMO, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH A 165-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STY
11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING
DEGREES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD
TOWARD KYUSHU DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 36 AND THE
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#279 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 02, 2014 10:27 am

TXPQ22 KNES 021508
TCSWNP

A. 11W (HALONG)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 15.0N

D. 134.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...W WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS
6.5 AND MET IS 6.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

now a solid 7 in dvorak
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#280 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 10:42 am

Image

Image

Wide view of Category 4 Super Typhoon Halong...

Quite small...
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