ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

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[terstorm1012]

the chasers I'm watching seem to be in areas where the power is still on.

the power's still on in Kill Devil Hills, at least at the Sea Ranch Resort?

[brunota2003]

Mark from hurricanetrack.com getting gusts up to 79mph right now. Not exactly sure where he located, he's moved around a bit.

He has since picked up several gusts of 81 mph, sustained winds in the 55 to 60 mph range...or even maybe little higher. He's ESE/SE of Wanchese a few miles...trying to set up to go straight through the eye.

EDIT: He's now getting into the eye...wind is starting to die down and pressure down to 984.9 mb

[brunota2003]

Winds have really died down now for Mark...he's near the Oregon Inlet, pressure at 981.7 mb and falling fairly quick.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Oregon Inlet Marina, NC - Station ID: 8652587
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/statio ... id=8652587
978.3mb and falling.

[bahamaswx]

Oregon Inlet Marina, NC - Station ID: 8652587
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/statio ... id=8652587
978.3mb and falling.

977.1mb will be interesting to see how low it gets.

edit: 975.5mb

[Chris_in_Tampa]

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...4 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR REACHES THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...

A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 71 MPH...115 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 84
MPH...135 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 75.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN

[Time_Zone]

Oregon Inlet Marina, NC - Station ID: 8652587
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/statio ... id=8652587
978.3mb and falling.

977.1mb will be interesting to see how low it gets.

edit: 975.5mb

Wow 975 and still falling......

[xironman]

If Mark heads south off the bridge he is going to get wet from the sound,

[bahamaswx]

Oregon Inlet Marina, NC - Station ID: 8652587
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/statio ... id=8652587
978.3mb and falling.

977.1mb will be interesting to see how low it gets.

edit: 975.5mb

Wow 975 and still falling......

974.9mb. Looks to have bottomed out. This is with 18kt winds though.

[Time_Zone]

Now sub 975.... just goes to show you Arthur has managed to ride the coast and not weaken at all. Wonder if he was one more route of intensification left as he enters back into the atlantic?

[Hammy]

When will the next plane be out there? It'll be interesting to see what they find, especially with new confection continuing to wrap around.

[Pack11]

Wind is still absolutely howling in Avon on Hatteras Island, and house is still rocking like crazy. If I didn't know the eye has passed us and gone to the north, I would swear we were in it right now! Knock on wood, but it's amazing that we have not lost power or even cable all night.

[MaineWeatherNut]

When will the next plane be out there? It'll be interesting to see what they find, especially with new confection continuing to wrap around.

I could be wrong but I doubt there will be another flight... It's made it's only forecast landfall as a tropical System.

EDIT: But that being said there is still the Tropical Storm warning for the cape cod area... So they may continue flights.

[supercane4867]

When will the next plane be out there? It'll be interesting to see what they find, especially with new confection continuing to wrap around.

It was scheduled to take off at 06z today but appearently still not out there

[Chris_in_Tampa]

When will the next plane be out there? It'll be interesting to see what they find, especially with new confection continuing to wrap around.

I could be wrong but I doubt there will be another flight... It's made it's only forecast landfall as a tropical System.

EDIT: But that being said there is still the Tropical Storm warning for the cape cod area... So they may continue flights.

They will continue to monitor it all the way to Canada, if needed, with fixes ever 6 hours. They may do 6 hour fixes today too. It's a bit uncertain when recon will go out next.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT WED 02 JULY 2014 COR
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2014
         TCPOD NUMBER.....14-032 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 03/15OOZ,1800Z,2100Z    A. 04/0000Z.........CORRECTED
       B. AFXXX 1101A ARTHUR      B. NOAA9 1201A ARTHUR
       C. 03/1245Z                C. 03/1730Z
       D. 32.0N 78.0W             D. NA
       E. 03/1445Z TO 03/2100Z    E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43    FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
       A. 03/2100Z                A. 04/0000,0300,0600Z
       B. NOAA3 1301A ARTHUR      B. AFXXX 1401A ARTHUR
       C. 03/1800Z                C. 03/2130Z
       D. 33.2N 77.0W             D. 33.5N 76.8W
       E. 03/1830Z TO 04/0000Z    E. 03/2345Z TO 04/0600Z
       F. 12,000 FT.              F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42     FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
       A. 04/0900Z                A. 04/0900,1200,1500Z
       B. NOAA2 1501A ARTHUR      B. AFXXX 1601A ARTHUR
       C. 04/0600Z                C. 04/0600Z
       D. 35.5N 74.5W             D. 35.5N 74.5W
       E. 04/0800 TO 04/1100Z     E. 04/0845Z TO 04/1500Z
       F. 12,000 FT               F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 6-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 04/1800Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 03 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JULY 2014
         TCPOD NUMBER.....14-033

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE ARTHUR
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
       A. 04/1800Z,05/OO00Z       A. 05/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 1701A ARTHUR      B. AFXXX 1801A ARTHUR
       C. 04/1415Z                C. 05/0145Z
       D. 37.8N 72.4W             D. 41.0N 68.1W
       E. 04/1745Z TO 04/2345Z    E. 05/0545Z TO 05/0930Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42   
       A. 05/1200Z               
       B. NOAA3 1901A ARTHUR     
       C. 05/0600Z               
       D. 42.7N 66.0W             
       E. 05/1145Z TO 05/1500Z   
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT             

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK: NOAA 49 WILL FLY A TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
       RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTING KMCF AT 04/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


[somethingfunny]

When will the next plane be out there? It'll be interesting to see what they find, especially with new confection continuing to wrap around.

I could be wrong but I doubt there will be another flight... It's made it's only forecast landfall as a tropical System.

EDIT: But that being said there is still the Tropical Storm warning for the cape cod area... So they may continue flights.

I'm wondering if another G-IV flight is tasked. Sampling that trough again seems pretty important given how Arthur has consistently tracked along the west side of the cone and the west side of the cone now includes Cape Cod. Even without a New England threat, this threatens Nova Scotia and New Brunswick so the Canadians may request continued recon flights.

^^^^^^ Beaten to it ^^^^^^

[Time_Zone]

Appears as if Arthur's eye is exiting the coast.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA9 (G-IV) will only be doing a research mission:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... 704N1.html
From: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/hurr.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

974.9mb. Looks to have bottomed out. This is with 18kt winds though.

That was the low. Increasing again. Saved image: