EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

I'd say a special advisory might be coming at 11:00 pm...my guess right now is 120 kt. Suddenly, Category 5 doesn't seem all too unrealistic. If this is what May is capable of, heaven forbid what peak season could see...fortunately MOST EPAC storms miss land, but a few don't!

[Macrocane]

What an interesting start of the season, I'm gonna sleep, let's see what happens in the morning.

[Meow]

I'd say a special advisory might be coming at 11:00 pm...my guess right now is 120 kt. Suddenly, Category 5 doesn't seem all too unrealistic. If this is what May is capable of, heaven forbid what peak season could see...fortunately MOST EPAC storms miss land, but a few don't!

Bingo.

EP, 01, 2014052506, 01, CARQ, 0, 116N, 1108W, 120, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, X, 290, 4, AMANDA, D,

[Cyclenall]

Congratulations Cycloneye!
This was your 100,000th post!!

I 2nd this, too bad I missed it because of work .

Is it possible the brief unarrested development earlier was due to a little dry air?

You mean arrested? No need for the "un" prefix.

Possibly, but only if it continues ...

I was trying to figure out why the pages were loading so slowly. Then I checked the file sizes of the animations in your signature.

LOL. I can't find a file size on them because it says its remotely cached but each one has around 120 frames so wow!

FYI, I'm going to bed now, so I won't be able to post for several hours.

Wait, so you can't post while your fast asleep!?! What ever happened to hooking your mind up to a computer so an avatar could post on your behalf? That's the way .

I'll get this out of the way now, when a La Nina comes the Atlantic doesn't produce this type of epic action in such a way and in fact tends to be rather bland, but if an El Nino comes then all hell breaks loose in the Epac!! Double standard for the tropics man...

Well I must say this Amanda has really taken the Epac by storm (pun intended) and shocked us once again. I knew it would undergo rapid intensification but was skeptical on explosive deepening but here we are! Its taken on a classic EI phase where it paused for a bit yesterday and then just continued. It has the medium-strong category 4 look to it so *I estimate its around 120 knots currently...donut hole and all! I can't say I'm dead shocked by these remarkable events but surprised that one of my points for this season already verified, and it blew everything 2013 had in the western hemisphere away in no time flat. I'm more impressed with the way Amanda has been then with Bud in 2012. Now that I see the RAW T#'s at 7.0 I have to say that is insane. Don't know if May ever had this for a western TC. If this does the unthinkable, and becomes a category 5, like everyone I'll join in on being completely floored to the core. Hope it happens. As others have said, this is a sign that the Epac is ready to become a fecal-storm of incredible magnitude but I'm still annoyed this didn't happen with Invest 90E eariler in the month.

*The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

WHAT THE???? 120 knots in May? JUST WOW!!! SPEECHLESS!!!!!!

[Andrew92]

I have to give much credit where it is due. I had an itching feeling Amanda would bump up more than initial forecasts, but not nearly this much! I really, really can't wait to see the first visible satellite picture in the morning.

And with conditions unfavorable to hold intensity for long, a slow moving projected path, and the system already very compact, not worried about this one for now. I am watching it, and wouldn't mind a passing shower or two to come out of this in my area, but I am thinking that is several days away, at least (if it comes at all).

-Andrew92

[hurricanes1234]

Guys, do you all think Amanda still has opportunity to strengthen further?

[meriland23]

I am not as knowledgeable as a lot of you are when it comes to Hurricanes (though I am intrigued and learning bit by bit) but.. isn't this sort of unusual? To have a big Cat.3 storm ramp up so fast in the E.Pac in late May? I assume that El Nino has played a big part in the reason this occurred ?

[supercane4867]

...AMANDA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
2:00 AM PDT Sun May 25
Location: 11.7°N 110.9°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second
strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record,
behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001.

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250839
TCDEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Amanda is still rapidly intensifying. The eye has become more
distinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C
surround the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively. A blend of
these estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
increasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the
atmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for
intensification. After that time, however, southerly shear is
expected to increase and that should start the weakening process.
The GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically
in response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and
mid-level centers eventually decoupling. Gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
previous one in the short term to account for the higher initial
wind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity
model consensus IVCN.

The cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the
initial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4. A turn to the
northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight
as Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level
trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east. A
northeastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to
the west of Amanda gets closer to the system. The NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest
FSSE and TVCE guidance.

Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second
strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record,
behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Although unusual, this has happened once before, in 2001. Incidentally, that was not an El Nino year, so we shouldn't just take it that this is an El Nino just based on the presence of a hurricane as powerful as Amanda. Instead, look at what the trends are. They weren't trending El Nino in 2001 if I am remembering correctly, but look like they are this year.

-Andrew92

[meriland23]

Jeez, 17 more mph and its a cat 5. That is crazy. This season is wasting no time at all.

[euro6208]

01E AMANDA 140525 0600 11.6N 110.8W EPAC 120 946

[Kingarabian]

Can't wait to see how the eyewall looks like on microwave imagery. Will dictate how much more it can strengthen and if a ERC is taking place or not.
Two more hours and we get our first pass.

[Yellow Evan]

Cat 4!!!!!

And since then, looks like the cloud tops have cooled.

[stormkite]

[Kingarabian]

ADT supports 125kts.

[stormkite]

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 MAY 2014 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 11:41:49 N Lon : 111:01:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 940.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.9 7.0


Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 11:41:44 N
Longitude : 110:52:40 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 973.5 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 891.6 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 81.9 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.1 m/s
Direction : 216.7 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr

F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[Extratropical94]

I don't know if that has been said before, but here are the deepening rates of Amanda for the past hours and days (referring to the 06Z best track update):
- 35 knots and 32 mbars in 6 hours
- 50 knots and 41 mbars in 12 hours
- 65 knots and 50 mbars in 24 hours
- 85 knots and 59 mbars in 36 hours

Especially the 6 and 12 hour figures are absolutely amazing and a perfect example of a rapid/explosive intensification.

[RL3AO]

What a fun start to the season. Looks like a 120-125 kt storm this morning.