CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Microwave imagery from WINDSAT:

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF 00z:



Stronger.

[Kingarabian]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 14:09:51 N Lon : 148:46:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 983.8mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 2.8

Center Temp : -51.7C Cloud Region Temp : -53.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.0 degrees

[Kingarabian]

SSMI:



Interesting.

[AbcdeerHI]

Could possibly be northwesterly shear and drier air disrupting her ability to develop and sustain convection on her left side.

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 160851
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST WED OCT 15 2014

ANA IS PRESENTING A DETERIORATED SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS
EVENING...AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR ALSO INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT A 0402
UTC SSMI/S PASS CONFIRMS WHAT EARLIER PASSES SUGGESTED...THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHWEST FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 3.0/45 KT TO 3.5/55 KT...AND
GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY DUE WEST AT 265/09 KT...TO THE SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
PROVIDING THIS STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING FLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN ANA TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE AIDS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
AND ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THUS THE UPDATED
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
WESTWARD MOTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK TAKES THE
CENTER OF ANA JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI OVER THE WEEKEND. FORWARD MOTION
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW TO THE NORTH. THE NOAA
GULFSTREAM IV SAMPLED THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT EARLIER TODAY...AND
IS SLATED TO FLY AGAIN TOMORROW...PROVIDING VALUABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
DATA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. ON ONE HAND...MORE THAN
ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN LINE WITH HWRF AND GHM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...
SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ARE NOT FORECASTING ANA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF ANA IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY LENDS CREDENCE TO THESE FORECASTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT DELAYS HURRICANE
INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IF ANA
FAILS TO REORGANIZE SOON...SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO BE NUDGED FURTHER DOWNWARD.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ANA. WITH AN AVERAGE 48
HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 14.1N 149.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.5N 150.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.3N 152.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.5N 154.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.8N 156.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.0N 157.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 21.3N 159.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 23.0N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

We'll see what happens tomorrow. At least it lost that CCC. Starting from ground zero again.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA35 PHFO 161158
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
200 AM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...ANA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 149.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.8 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. ANA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...THEN TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII STARTING LATE FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED
BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SHORELINES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it hit a dry slot, 50 knts is generous.

CP, 02, 2014101612, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1498W, 50, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 1011, 220, 20, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, D,
CP, 02, 2014101612, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1498W, 50, 1000, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1011, 220, 20, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, D,

[Alyono]

Ana appears to be reorganizing. For the first time, we appear to have actual convection over the center

It also seems to be taking on a curved banded structure

[Yellow Evan]

ADT rising (raw was 2.6 earlier)



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2014 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 13:51:58 N Lon : 149:29:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 980.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.2

Center Temp : -69.8C Cloud Region Temp : -42.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 47km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.3 degrees

[Alyono]

0Z EC is showing 75 to 80 kts very near Kauai

[Kingarabian]

Primary reason why ADT is rising:


06z HWRF has a solid cat. 2 over Maui.1


06z GFS also was much more to the right and very close to the islands.

[tolakram]

Live IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-150&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=5

[Alyono]

latest microwave confirms the increase in organization

Also, 12Z MU is showing TS winds into Honolulu

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF has Ana making landfall on Maui as a hurricane and brings the center directly over Oahu later

[supercane4867]

Deep convection reforming

[Kingarabian]

It needs to do it better this time

[Kingarabian]

CPHC official track is to the right and closer to the islands as well.

12z GFS came very close to Oahu.