EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical
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hurricanes1234
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Does anyone think it's strengthened since the last update? The cloud tops have continued to cool and organize even better.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Does anyone think it's strengthened since the last update? The cloud tops have continued to cool and organize even better.
I do. A warming eye and cooling convection is usually a sign of a high intensity. I wonder how strong this could be.
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hurricanes1234
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I'd say at least 125 knots, but in my opinion, 130 knots is not out of the question. I am still shocked at this hurricane.
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Yellow Evan
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Extratropical94
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Yellow Evan wrote:I really want this to be raised to 125 knts so we can tie Adolph in terms of winds and possibly break it pressure wise.
A raise to 145 mph (125 kt) is likely as dvorak numbers are already showing higher intensities:
TXPZ21 KNES 251217
TCSENP
A. 01E (AMANDA)
B. 25/1200Z
C. 11.7N
D. 111.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=7.0 BASED ON WMG WITH WH RING EMBEDDED BY
CMG. PT=6.0. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT
TO 2.5/24HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
T6.5 = 127.5 kt
SSD: 2014MAY25 120000 6.6 937.6 129.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 (Raw: 137 kt)
CIMSS: CI 6.6, Final 6.6, Adj 6.9, Raw 7.3 (CI: 130 kt, Raw: 149 kt)
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Sun May 25, 2014 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Yellow Evan
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Dean4Storms
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:I really want this to be raised to 125 knts so we can tie Adolph in terms of winds and possibly break it pressure wise.
A raise to 145 mph (125 kt) is likely as dvorak numbers are already showing higher intensities:
TXPZ21 KNES 251217
TCSENP
A. 01E (AMANDA)
B. 25/1200Z
C. 11.7N
D. 111.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=7.0 BASED ON WMG WITH WH RING EMBEDDED BY
CMG. PT=6.0. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT
TO 2.5/24HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
T6.5 = 127.5 kt
SSD: 2014MAY25 120000 6.6 937.6 129.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 (Raw: 137 kt)
CIMSS: CI 6.6, Final 6.6, Adj 6.9, Raw 7.3 (CI: 130 kt, Raw: 149 kt)
Yea, I meant 125 knts. Post edited. Sorry, it's early.
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mrbagyo
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Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane
wow, its starting to develop a western band, a typical feature of intense tropical cyclones
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sun May 25, 2014 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Extratropical94
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hurricanes1234
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WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
ALMOST A CATEGORY 5!!!!!!!!
ALMOST A CATEGORY 5!!!!!!!!
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Extratropical94
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Its really hard for NHC to go 140 without recon. If we get some more dark grey on the dvorak IR images, they might do it.
Do you know if they had recon in Celia (2010)?
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:RL3AO wrote:Its really hard for NHC to go 140 without recon. If we get some more dark grey on the dvorak IR images, they might do it.
Do you know if they had recon in Celia (2010)?
I don't believe so, but it was so clearly a T7.0 on satellite that they pulled the trigger. Basically my comment meant if it was one of those where its a borderline 6.5/7.0 they often keep it at 135. Just something I've noticed. I could be wrong.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/E ... -926mb.jpg
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cycloneye
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:It took a while, but NHC finally caught up with this storm. I think they've been behind on intensity since the RI period began.
The post season analysis will be very interesting.
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TheAustinMan
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Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:Boom!
EP, 01, 2014052512, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1111W, 135, 932, HU
If that stands, Amanda would have beaten Hurricane Adolph's (2001) strongest May EPAC hurricane record. In addition, it's winds and pressure would have made it the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere since Hurricane Dora of 2011. Go figure.
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