WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

JTWC has a habit of going 135kt when a storm gets a T7.0 for the first time. We will see what they say. IMO its 140kt.

[euro6208]

Oh how i wish they had recon for this...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Since 00Z, the JTWC Best Track has not been updated, same goes with the ACE which solely relies on that BT.

07E GENEVIEVE 140807 0000 13.7N 179.1W EPAC 100 965

[euro6208]

Genevieve knows how high the standards are in the West Pacific, it has to look its best....

[WeatherGuesser]

Gang, can we quit with embedding mega file sized animations? Links will do fine for those who want to view them.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Already a category 5, the 2nd in the season.

WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 178.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 178.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.6N 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6N 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.0N 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4N 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.7N 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2N 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.3N 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 178.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692 NM WEST
OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z
AND 081500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

Not bad for 48 hours. Wilma is impressed.

[euro6208]

Not bad for 48 hours. Wilma is impressed.

Another low end 140 knots category 5...When will recon return?

I know Wilma is the strongest in the Atlantic but why even mention her? There have been countless of other similiar typhoons that intensified at this rate plus highest Wilma got up to based on dvorak is only 6.5...Recon?

[galaxy401]

Wow so it did become a cat 5 after all. What a turnaround.

Wilma is being bought up because it intensified VERY quickly in 24 hours.

[RL3AO]

Not bad for 48 hours. Wilma is impressed.

Another low end 140 knots category 5...When will recon return?

I know Wilma is the strongest in the Atlantic but why even mention her? There have been countless of other similiar typhoons that intensified at this rate plus highest Wilma got up to based on dvorak is 7.0...Recon?

I compared it to Wilma solely on the rate of intensification. 48 hours from depression to cat 5.

[euro6208]

Wow so it did become a cat 5 after all. What a turnaround.

Wilma is being bought up because it intensified VERY quickly in 24 hours.

Well record for 24 hours is Super Typhoon Forrest which dropped 100 mb from 976 to 876 mb...Record at that time...

But anyways back to Genevieve...



Looking very impressive...

[WeatherGuesser]

Are we taking bets here? Wake, Midway or through the slot?

[euro6208]

Are we taking bets here? Wake, Midway or through the slot?

Latest forecast has it passing between Midway and Wake...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not bad for 48 hours. Wilma is impressed.

Another low end 140 knots category 5...When will recon return?

I know Wilma is the strongest in the Atlantic but why even mention her? There have been countless of other similiar typhoons that intensified at this rate plus highest Wilma got up to based on dvorak is only 6.5...Recon?

Wilma's Dvorak was later adjusted to 7.8 and then it is one of the few modern-day (2000 up) cyclones to have that.

[CrazyC83]

Amazing storm. Going from a weak tropical storm to a Cat 5 in only 48 hours...

Could Genevieve recurve back across 180 before becoming extratropical? In that case, CPHC takes back control?

[CrazyC83]

As for the central pressure, if the storm is 140 kt, I would guess it to be around 935mb (higher than Dvorak due to the ridge nearby). At the previous advisory supporting 130 kt, I would guess 944mb at that time.

[euro6208]

Becoming Annular?

WDPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (GENEVIEVE) WARNING
NR 42//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692 NM
WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 07E HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS INCREASING 75 KNOTS FROM 65 KNOTS TO 140 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH A 15 NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. EIR DEPICTS AN ANNULAR SIGNATURE WITH A SYMMETRIC
RING OF UNIFORM CONVECTION. A 071231Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATED A 60 NM
DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. STY 07E
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07E IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST AND
BECOMES POLEWARD ORIENTED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 145 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A FAST-MOVING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL SHOWS TWO
DISTINCT CLUSTERS. NAVGEM, GFDN, GFS AND COAMPS-TC TRACK THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE THE TRACK SPEED WHILE UKMO,ECMWF AND THE
JGSM ENSEMBLE (JENS) TRACK THE SYSTEM FASTER AND MORE WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, UKMO AND JENS SOLUTIONS AS THE MODEL
FIELDS INDICATE A ZONAL MIDLATITUDE PATTERN AND ALSO SHOW THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY TRANSITING EAST AWAY FROM STY 07E. STY 07E IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLER SST (25-26C). OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND
RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Genevieve is the center of attraction

[CrazyC83]

Halong...invest?...Genevieve...Iselle...Julio. Busy Pacific now.

[supercane4867]

Impressive