ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

[Hurricaneman]

Something that they don't say is if conditions will be favorable. In other systems in recent past they have mentioned marginal conditions etc.

I believe they dropped the %s because of the current lack of convection but if convection fires then the %s will go up and possibly have a depression in that case

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[Alyono]

Large scale conditions from a velocity potential standpoint are becoming very unfavorable

Those wont be favorable until mid August

[SouthDadeFish]

If deeper convection doesn't fire tonight during the diurnal maximum, I think development chances decrease to below 50%.

[Ntxw]

If deeper convection doesn't fire tonight during the diurnal maximum, I think development chances decrease to below 50%.

Even if it does, it will probably lose it during dmin again. Without that kelvin wave (we saw how it enhanced 93L's convection yesterday) it will be tough to maintain convection in the long haul. If this thing had gotten it's act together a little more the past 24 hours I think it would've been able to overcome of the unfavorable conditions without the KW but that appears increasingly less likely at this point.

[MGC]

Lots of dry air near 93L......dry air allways seems to win, kinda like gravity. If 93L don't soon have some convection form it will slowly spin down.....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

Would be something to see this whole thing bust and not develop and watch it's chances gradually decrease.

[Alyono]

Usually, there would at least be some popcorn convection now if we were going to see a convective burst for the DMAX

Last night's failed convection should have been a red flag that conditions are not favorable.

Favorable environmental conditions go well beyond low upper shear and moist air

[cycloneye]

Not a good sign when these folks say this.

TXNT25 KNES 300017
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 9.5N

D. 41.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION IS LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND WHAT
LITTLE EXISTS TO THE SW OF THE CENTER FAILS TO MEET THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR A T1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON THE
CONSTRAINT THAT PREVENTS LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2014073000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 413W, 30, 1012, DB

[USTropics]

The mid level dry air intrusion coupled with northerly shear during the day has really prevented any cloud tops from building upwards in the atmosphere. CIMSS indicates the vorticity in the mid to upper levels has become elongated:



An upper-level anticyclone looks to have become re-established over the center of 93L which may help 93L become more established over night, but it still appears dry air intrusion is winning the battle (like it normally does).




Enhanced WV Loop:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

[Frank2]

Of course intensity forecasting is the weakest link so we'll just have to wait and see, but dry air is the issue as with TD 2...

P.S. When you compare tonight to images on Pgs. 7 - 9 that really brings home how this disturbance has weakened over 24 hours..

P.P.S. Enjoyed writing that brief NHC historical at the bottom of Pg. 7...

[Aric Dunn]

Most of the dry air is do to a large plume of SAL ... would have to work that out for it to really get deeper convection..

[JonathanBelles]

New Blog Post: Drier Air Dictates The Forecast for Florida and 93L: Why Dry Air Could Be A Drought Buster http://wp.me/p1xnuB-fP

[floridasun78]

dry air taking total on system that could good leedwards

[cycloneye]

Fresh ASCAT made at 7:50 PM EDT. Elongated.

[Nimbus]

So maybe we wait till Thursday, many systems start to spin up west of -50W where the SST's are a little higher.

[TheStormExpert]

So maybe we wait till Thursday, many systems start to spin up west of -50W where the SST's are a little higher.

SST's remain marginal until just east of the islands when they gradually begin to warm. This is one of the big factors as to why many were not expecting much of a Cape Verde season.

[HURAKAN]

24 hr comparison

[Alyono]

we're close to having a dead wave