ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

'Five' caught me off guard. I was thinking Four, but I guess there was a numbered TD that didn't get named.

Oh well.

Hope for it to die quickly as nothing but a rainmaker for those that need it.

[USTropics]

Saved Visible Loop from NASA GOES 1km:

[tropicwatch]

Dealing with some pretty heavy wind shear right now.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm surprised they upgraded it so soon.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: I'm surprised they upgraded it so soon.

Its proximity and threat to Mexico likely played a role in upgrading the system. If it's not the best-looking tropical depression, but it has enough of a circulation to be designated.

[ozonepete]

It doesn't look like that center is holding up; in fact it looks like it already collapsed. This is a typical developing system that has multiple centers rotating around a broad, larger center. From watching the rgb satellite and looking at that last 37ghz microwave satellite someone posted here it looks like the center could establish further north and east. And it will have a lot of trouble consolidating anyway with all of that shear going on. It's chances are better once it gets further west, like past 95.0 or so.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My estimate of where the LLC is consolidating:

[ronjon]

That center location is quite a bit north of NHCs. Would adjust the track further northward and also allow more time over water if it verifies.

[ozonepete]

My estimate of where the LLC is consolidating:

http://i.imgur.com/Ejm48Ow.jpg

Yup that's roughly where I see it.

[ozonepete]

That center location is quite a bit north of NHCs. Would adjust the track further northward and also allow more time over water if it verifies.

Yeah this is the only situation (developing TC consolidating an LLC) where the models and most forecasters (except Aric heh heh) have a lot of problems getting the center right. The grid size / resolution is just too big for the models to get the final LLC right in a lot of cases. But I have noticed that the NHC forecasters often talk about it in their discussions now, which is a big step forward. And would agree that if the LLC establishes further north and or east it will obviously have more time over water and could possibly get further north. The shear needs to relax for it to be able to consolidate the LLC for sure.

[wxman57]

Center may be up at 21.6N/93.2W now. I don't think there is much risk to the lower TX coast, but the center may go inland north of Tampico.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how these systems organize at the bottom on the BOC bowl with land on three sides and only a few hundred miles of open water... It's becoming the norm for the BOC over the past few years...

[ozonepete]

Center may be up at 21.6N/93.2W now. I don't think there is much risk to the lower TX coast, but the center may go inland north of Tampico.

Yeah wxman I have it just a tad east of there. The broader center is still sending out a number of small vortices to the north and west but that looks like where the LLC will consolidate. I also don't see this making it to southern Texas either even with a center/track adjustment.

[Rgv20]

Center may be up at 21.6N/93.2W now. I don't think there is much risk to the lower TX coast, but the center may go inland north of Tampico.

Yeah wxman I have it just a tad east of there. The broader center is still sending out a number of small vortices to the north and west but that looks like where the LLC will consolidate. I also don't see this making it to southern Texas either even with a center/track adjustment.

25N would be the extreme northern edge... Would you agree?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the COC is moving out of the shear a little. Nice convection building close to it east and southeast of the COC.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-93&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[ozonepete]

Center may be up at 21.6N/93.2W now. I don't think there is much risk to the lower TX coast, but the center may go inland north of Tampico.

Yeah wxman I have it just a tad east of there. The broader center is still sending out a number of small vortices to the north and west but that looks like where the LLC will consolidate. I also don't see this making it to southern Texas either even with a center/track adjustment.

25N would be the extreme northern edge... Would you agree?

You mean as far north as it could get? Yeah that would be the extreme northern limit. Also, remember this is still not consolidated. Though I'm pretty sure the center is east of where they had it, it could be more southeast of the point where we think it is. Really hard to tell without RECON and pretty soon the RGB/Visible satellites will be in their much less useful night-time mode.

[hriverajr]

I have never thought the center of circulation was as far south as indicated? It never looked like that at least from visible satellite...

[ozonepete]

Remember that in developing, consolidating systems the bursts of convection closest to the MLC help to pull the LLC under them. It's a trade-off back and forth as the MLC tries to pull a final LLC under it while the multiple LLCs below fight for dominance.

[wxman57]

I expect it to move inland well south of 25N, and south of 24N. Between 22N-23N, probably.

[cycloneye]

ozonepete ,another plane will go to TD Five departing at 10:30 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0230Z
D. 20.5N 95.0W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT