ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[NDG]

At the station off Canaveral north of the system the dewpoint is 75.6 °F at about 80% humidity.
The station reported winds 17.5 to 19.5 knots swinging around from 51 degrees to 35 degrees.
That is a sign inflow is picking up and it is getting some marginal energy content.
Actually for the area its more like an October reading considering the 85 degree SST.

85 degree is about right for this time of the year for the Atlantic.

[Alyono]

convection needs to persist before this can be a TD

[Blown Away]

This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?

Both the ECMWF and NAVGEM models close it off by 24 hours off the SE Coast of Florida. So some models have trended more toward development, even if it is weak development. These models were not showing this yesterday. Quite a headache for forecasters!

Based on the models, the 48 hour percentage should be higher than the 5 day???

How about 60/10... Red X with a Yellow Cone??

[gatorcane]

Just shows how hard it is to predict these things. Conditions are actually marginally favorable and not unfavorable like the NHC thought. The highest shear has stayed to the north along a North-Central FL line and points north. This has allowed some gradual organization. The high SSTs I am sure are helping too.

[poof121]

Another good satellite loop that short-term updates...

http://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=tpa&type=ir

[Bocadude85]

This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?

Maybe 40%

[tropicwatch]

NOAA has the floater up for 92L

[SeGaBob]

NOAA has the floater up for 92L

blp posted that one page ago...

[poof121]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Pressure beginning to decrease, slowly however. Pressures normally decrease with increasing temperature of the day. However, temperature decreased at the same time pressure did. Could be a sign...

[Hammy]

I'm going to get 40%/40% for 2pm, I think they'll wait until 8pm and see if the convection persists and raise it to 50% if it does.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111747
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The national Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
newly developed Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred
miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area near the
northwestern Bahamas has become more concentrated today, and the
circulation of the low has become a little better defined. Some
additional development could occur before upper-level winds become
less conducive tonight. The low is expected to move generally
westward across the southern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[fci]

JB thinks it may be a TD...

Winds of 22?!?
Lauderdale; crank up the generator
I'm headed out back to pull in the lawn furniture

[Kohlecane]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... x.DAY.jpg&

Becoming more Exposed that shear is taking that top r QD

[Nimbus]

Someone forget to tell JB what day this is?
I'll wait for recon to find a TS or not.

[floridasun78]

Someone forget to tell JB what day this is?
I'll wait for recon to find a TS or not.

plane was cancel

[Sanibel]

Better surface structure in my opinion but still fighting conditions.

[jlauderdal]

JB thinks it may be a TD...

Winds of 22?!?
Lauderdale; crank up the generator
I'm headed out back to pull in the lawn furniture

sleeping with one eye open tonight just in case this bad boy decides to hit the gulf stream and go from a weak low to a 3 in a matter of hours ....fyi, just went outside, winds havent been this calm in weeks..there is some very light precip, wouldnt even call it drizzle

[Riptide]

Someone forget to tell JB what day this is?
I'll wait for recon to find a TS or not.

plane was cancel

Bad call, makes no sense considering how close it is to land. They are really trying to save up that money.

[Sanibel]

Clear circulation showing up on Miami long range radar.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Crank that generator up people a big one is blowing in. Better be prepared in NC just in case.