ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I have never thought the center of circulation was as far south as indicated? It never looked like that at least from visible satellite...

Yeah I don't think any of us really thought that.

[ozonepete]

ozonepete ,another plane will go to TD Five departing at 10:30 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0230Z
D. 20.5N 95.0W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Thanks Luis! I forgot to check. It looks like the shear is dropping off a little so they may get a better fix then.

[NDG]

Very clearly the circulation further north has taken over.

[ozonepete]

I expect it to move inland well south of 25N, and south of 24N. Between 22N-23N, probably.

Yup. I agree. even if the center sets up a little further north this will keep going west-northwest. That makes 22-23N most likely.

[hriverajr]

Perhaps there are two MLC's The stronger LLC looks to be farther north however, in fact thunderstorms beginning to fire just east of there.

[cycloneye]

Everyone sees it more north.

@BigJoeBastardi · 7m
dont mean to cause a problem but think NHC circulation center too far south

[tropicwatch]

oopps!

[ozonepete]

Everyone sees it more north.

@BigJoeBastardi · 7m
dont mean to cause a problem but think NHC circulation center too far south

Can't wait to see 8PM position.

[tailgater]

I realize that the ridge is supposed to push TD 5 west and and maybe a bit south of due west as it nears the coast but is there a chance with this setting up just about as far north as any of the models were predicting that the nose of the ridge building west noses in a bit south of TD 5. Just a question I was wondering about as a slight possiblity.

Doesn't look likely judging from the steering charts

[tropicwatch]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[tropicwatch]

Looks like they adjusted north initial center was 20.1 N and 93.6W

[Nimbus]

There has been a northern pole to the circulation since Jamaica (probably mid level then). It does seem a little odd all the convection is blooming up there on the northern end.

If the NHC does a center relocation it will look like the storm is moving NNE which it isn't.

[ozonepete]

They are still way too far south. The LLC looks to be really consolidating at around 21.5N, 92.9W. It's pretty clear on the RGB.

[ozonepete]

Oh and yeah I agree it's moving NW now, not WNW. That will allow them to justifiably relocate the center later when RECON goes in and finds what we are seeing...

[NDG]

Link to HR satellite loop, speed up the loop, clearly the LLC taking over is still NNE of the latest position by the NHC.

Click here.

[ozonepete]

There has been a northern pole to the circulation since Jamaica (probably mid level then). It does seem a little odd all the convection is blooming up there on the northern end.

If the NHC does a center relocation it will look like the storm is moving NNE which it isn't.

But they can specifically say the center relocated and then by definition there was no NNE motion. They can say it was moving WNW and then relocated and turned NW. That's certainly what appears to have happened.

[drezee]

There is a bit of NNW shear...it also seems to be moving a bit more northerly than model depictions. Convection is displaced to the SE and will be until a tower pops over the center

Like clockwork here comes the tower and we may get off to the races until landfall...

[tropicwatch]

Well it appears that there will be a northward shift in the forecast track. The question is how much of a shift will occur. Looking forward to the Hurricane Hunters getting back in the system tonight.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Last daytime RGB image: