ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Did Gordon ever have recon? This year being so slow has provided alot of overflow for the hurricane hunter budget and that's probably given Edouard a leg up.

Recon never flew into Gordon.

[supercane4867]

We've waited 691 days for a major hurricane and it only lasted 6 hours

AL, 06, 2014091606, , BEST, 0, 295N, 573W, 95, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40, 1014, 200, 20, 115, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, D,
AL, 06, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 306N, 578W, 100, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 130, 130, 150, 1014, 220, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, D,
AL, 06, 2014091618, , BEST, 0, 317N, 577W, 95, 958, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1013, 220, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, D,

[Hammy]

Did Gordon ever have recon? This year being so slow has provided alot of overflow for the hurricane hunter budget and that's probably given Edouard a leg up.

I don't believe Gordon did, it was east of 40W by that point and headed towards the Azores.

[supercane4867]

Did Gordon ever have recon? This year being so slow has provided alot of overflow for the hurricane hunter budget and that's probably given Edouard a leg up.

I don't believe Gordon did, it was east of 40W by that point and headed towards the Azores.

I don't believe Gordon ever looked as good as Edouard. It doesn't satisfies the criteria for major hurricane to me

[somethingfunny]

It looks liked it peaked as its satellite presentation is becoming increasingly ragged. Hey, at least we squeezed out a major! Can't believe how challenging it has been for the Atlantic to produce Cat.3+ hurricanes over the past several years. I also predict that this will be the first and only major hurricane of this season.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

...AFTER REACHING 115 MPH EDOUARD BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 57.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Any models run it farther south? It might be able to hold its intensity if it stays south of about 38N.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard
has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in
a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image. The last few passes from the
aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from
the SFMR observed a few hours ago. These data suggest an initial
wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory. Since the hurricane has less
than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its
eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken. After that time,
Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much
cooler water and into higher shear. The NHC forecast is lower than
the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in
consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the
intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to
become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become
extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it
developing frontal features by that time.

Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little
faster at about 13 kt. The hurricane will move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it
moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high. An eastward
acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still
forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it
moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance is
in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 32.3N 57.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 39.7N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 40.9N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 39.4N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1800Z 36.0N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[WPBWeather]

Any models run it farther south? It might be able to hold its intensity if it stays south of about 38N.

Someone asked about that in the Talking Topics thread.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track down to 80kts.

AL, 06, 2014091700, , BEST, 0, 329N, 570W, 80, 959, HU

[tolakram]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=33&lon=-57&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&map=none&numframes=10

Latest


Ed from earlier today, close to peak strength.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

...EDOUARD WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 56.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES



HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric
rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane
force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft. Therefore, the 64-
kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the
southeast and southwest quadrants. Additionally, an earlier lower
fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest
reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise
of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak
flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the
cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and
within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles
the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical
characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or
less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all
agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive
mid-latitude baroclinic zone.

The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward,
or 035/15. Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to
east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the
mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a
mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion
is expected with further acceleration. A rather abrupt reduction in
forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as
Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low
situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula. The official NHC
forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast
track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model
consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
(HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)
project 133 member multi-model ensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 33.5N 56.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 38.4N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 40.2N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 40.5N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 40.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/0000Z 38.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0000Z 35.5N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Ptarmigan]

Many forecast models did not handle Edouard well at first. Edouard turned out to be an impressive hurricane despite adverse conditions. I like fish storms as they add ACE up.

[somethingfunny]

Considering THAT edouard has been undergoing AN EWRC and still has ~24 hours of warm water, I'm wondering if this storm has a higher than normal chance of turning into a steady-state lukewarm water hurricane like an Epsilon.

[Hammy]

Considering THAT edouard has been undergoing AN EWRC and still has ~24 hours of warm water, I'm wondering if this storm has a higher than normal chance of turning into a steady-state lukewarm water hurricane like an Epsilon.

Edouard is looking better organized at night for once, so it'll be interesting to see what the plane finds tomorrow. That southward bend in the track is interesting, and is looking more and more prominent, I wonder if this can do like Alberto in 2000 and bend south enough to add a week or two to it's lifespan.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed
very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images
indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level
concentric rings. A dropsonde released into the southeastern
eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission
measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which
equates to an intensity of about 75 kt. Edouard's initial
intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the
dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.
Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and
961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm
pressure of 959 mb.

Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12
hours or so. Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,
vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows
westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours. With the environment
becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after
that. The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate
from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic
support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical
low by day 3, if not sooner.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.
The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude
westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the
next 24 hours or so. However, the cyclone is forecast to stay
south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and
slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis. Toward the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward
before it reaches the main islands of the Azores. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then
shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the
ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn. The updated NHC
track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too
far from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 35.1N 55.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 39.3N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 40.3N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 40.3N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 40.1N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tolakram]

Looking really good again, but almost out of warm water.

[Yellow Evan]

AL, 06, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 357N, 545W, 80, 959, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 180, 140, 90, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, D,
AL, 06, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 357N, 545W, 80, 959, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 120, 70, 40, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, D,
AL, 06, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 357N, 545W, 80, 959, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 60, 60, 0, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, D,

[tolakram]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Edouard looks like it's intensifying.