CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

Looks stronger than 50 knts to me. We'll see when recon arrives.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2014 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 14:42:59 N Lon : 152:08:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 996.9mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -70.3C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 47km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.2 degrees

[Kingarabian]

00z European is rolling.

00zEuro, 00zHWRF both keep Hawaii safe with Ana safely exiting to the West as that high situates over the Hawaiian Islands.

00zGFS flirts with the Hawaiian Islands before exiting to the West.

00z GFDL has an Oahu landfall.

[Kingarabian]

At 800 pm HST, 0600 UTC, the center of tropical storm Ana was located near latitude 14.9 north, longitude 152.5 west. Ana is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, 19 km/h. This is expected to continue tonight with a turn to the northwest on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, 105 km/h, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, with Ana possibly becoming a hurricane on Friday. Weakening is expected Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, 95 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb, 29.47 inches.

[Kingarabian]

Wobble to the right?

[euro6208]

Oh so no more landfall expected. Hawaii should get plenty of rain still and maybe some winds...Won't be surprised if this weakens more than expected maybe even dissipate...

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA35 PHFO 170557
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
800 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...ANA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND NEARING HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 152.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA FROM NECKER TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
ON FRIDAY.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH ANA POSSIBLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SHORELINES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[euro6208]

Been reading the archives for ANA...

What is the PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT?

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 170900
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

ANA HAS BEEN PRODUCING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN OBSERVED IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...WHILE PGTW DERIVED
3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER...0055Z SSMI AND 0349Z SSMI/S OVERPASSES DEPICTED
STRUCTURE CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF A SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH...WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL DETECTED EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. A U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS IN TRANSIT FROM THE MAINLAND...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CRITICALLY VALUABLE DATA REGARDING STORM
STRUCTURE FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...AFTER THE NOAA G-IV
SAMPLED THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT EARLIER TODAY.

THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAT BEGAN EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/12 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ANA IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
NEW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF ANA...RESULTING IN A SLOWING
IN THE FORWARD MOTION...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...JUST AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH. THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THIS TURN HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY...AND IS IN LINE WITH
MOST OF THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND LIES ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES. BY DAYS 4 AND
5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EFFICIENTLY
WARM TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANA TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE WINDOW FOR
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE ON SATURDAY...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY...AS THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPARTS INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS
PRESENTED BY SHIPS AND LGEM DURING THIS WEAKENING PHASE. WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRENGTHENING TREND AS ANA
REACHES THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST WIND SHEAR NEAR THE
SYSTEM.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE EXACT TRACK THAT
ANA TAKES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WATER IMPACTS
THAT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE. UNFORTUNATELY IT
IS STILL TOO SOON TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. IF THE CENTER OF ANA TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ERROR CONE...THE RESULT WOULD BE DRASTICALLY WORSE
WEATHER THAN A TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.2N 153.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.1N 154.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.4N 156.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.6N 157.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 19.7N 159.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 21.0N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 23.5N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD/R BALLARD

They say that because of this:

INIKI
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) failed to issue tropical cyclone warnings and watches for the hurricane well in advance. For several days prior to the disaster, the CPHC and the news media forecast Iniki to remain well south of the island chain, with the only effect being some high surf conditions. Some of the standard international computer models were indicating a northward turn towards the populated Hawaiian Islands, but these were rejected by the CPHC forecasters. CHPC Advisory #19 was issued at 11 AM local time on September 10, and suggested that a weakening Iniki would remain well to the south. It was not until a special bulletin was issued by the CPHC at 6:30 PM on September 10—less than 24 hours before landfall—that any warning was given to the public.[3]

A hurricane watch was issued for Kauaʻi early on September 11 and was upgraded to a hurricane warning later that day.[1] Prior to Iniki's arrival in Kauaʻi, 8,000 people were housed in shelters, most of whom remembered Hurricane Iwa 10 years prior. Two major hotels were converted into Red Cross shelters that housed thousands of evacuees during the storm, and for days afterwards. Despite the massive destruction, water shortage, unsanitary conditions, overcrowding and isolation from the outside world, a spirit of cooperation prevailed.

[Kingarabian]

Is that... an EYE????

[Kingarabian]

[AbcdeerHI]

Increase spread in the 48-72 hr.


Possible convection on the west side of circulation. Possibly trying to form an eye?
click to animate


Does a stronger storm mean a bigger right turn?

[wxman57]

Models continue to trend away from the islands. At most it appears the islands will be brushed by the outer rain bands.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF is rolling and is much closer to Oahu.

[euro6208]

Models continue to trend away from the islands. At most it appears the islands will be brushed by the outer rain bands.

Great news...

[Kingarabian]

Models continue to trend away from the islands. At most it appears the islands will be brushed by the outer rain bands.

Sure hope so.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

I'd go ahead and push it up to 60kts. Lowest pressure was 992 some sfmrs at 52kts while flight level @ 10 sec were 64kts.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA45 PHFO 171025 CCA
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

CORRECTED TYPO IN PARAGRAPH 3

ANA HAS BEEN PRODUCING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN OBSERVED IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...WHILE PGTW DERIVED
3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER...0055Z SSMI AND 0349Z SSMI/S OVERPASSES DEPICTED
STRUCTURE CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF A SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH...WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL DETECTED EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. A U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS IN TRANSIT FROM THE MAINLAND...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CRITICALLY VALUABLE DATA REGARDING STORM
STRUCTURE FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...AFTER THE NOAA G-IV
SAMPLED THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT EARLIER TODAY.

THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAT BEGAN EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/12 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ANA IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
NEW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF ANA...RESULTING IN A SLOWING
IN THE FORWARD MOTION...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...JUST AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH. THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THIS TURN HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY...AND IS IN LINE WITH
MOST OF THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND LIES ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES. BY DAYS 4 AND
5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANA TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE WINDOW FOR
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE ON SATURDAY...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY...AS THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPARTS INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS
PRESENTED BY SHIPS AND LGEM DURING THIS WEAKENING PHASE. WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRENGTHENING TREND AS ANA
REACHES THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST WIND SHEAR NEAR THE
SYSTEM.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE EXACT TRACK THAT
ANA TAKES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WATER IMPACTS
THAT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE. UNFORTUNATELY IT
IS STILL TOO SOON TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. IF THE CENTER OF ANA TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ERROR CONE...THE RESULT WOULD BE DRASTICALLY WORSE
WEATHER THAN A TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.2N 153.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.1N 154.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.4N 156.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.6N 157.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 19.7N 159.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 21.0N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 23.5N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD/R BALLARD

[Yellow Evan]

CP, 02, 2014101712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1537W, 60, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 30, 50, 1009, 200, 25, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, D,
CP, 02, 2014101712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1537W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 20, 10, 25, 1009, 200, 25, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, D,