ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[NDG]

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

Cold front coming down the plains is not going to reach the GOM, secondly the Upper Level westerlies is not going to reach the GOM, what is creating the shear is the UL winds in between the UL ridge in the SE US and all of the ULLs near the greater Antilles to the SW GOM, nothing to do with the "monster cold front" you guys keep talking about.

so what you think will happen when this energy reaches the gulf?

Mid level ridge along the gulf coast will keep pushing this system westward to WSW with NE UL shear taking over the entire eastern GOM, the only way it may survive or do something is if by any chance it gets closer to the northern GOM where it appears shear will be less by early next week, if the LLC survives by then.

[USTropics]

Shear forecasts don't have the highest verification rate, but here is a look at the GFS 12z forecast in 48 hours. You can see the cold front draped through the GOM and across Florida inducing 15-20 knots of shear. You could see slow strengthening once it reaches the GOM, but that should put a damper on anything of significance forming.

[StarmanHDB]

Foolish post need to stop. This may be one of them, but if 92L gives anyone a bad day your post is assinine!

Does the fact that 92L is causing me to have a nasty sinus headache which, in turn, is causing me to have a bad day make this post "assinine"?

Anyway, looking out towards the ocean from my 9th floor window here on Federal Highway in Fort Lauderdale, it is very grey and gloomy out there....can't tell the ocean from the sky. YUCK!

[tropicwatch]

Pretty significant pressure drop in Freeport during the past hour, from 1015.2mb to 1013.5mb

[gatorcane]

Looks like we have a blowup of convection closer to the LLC in the 18:15UTC frame...

I'd say if this blowup continues and convection expands from it, time to declare this a TD.

[weatherfanatic]

Bob you are 100% right, forgot it was 20/30, so the 2 day is up, IMO though this should be higher on both.

[USTropics]

Saved visible animated gif (NASA GOES-E 1KM):

[NDG]

12z Euro paints a very wet forecast for S FL over the next 36-48 hrs.

[gatorcane]

Nice GIF, look at the blowup of convection on the NE side of the big blob north of the part that sticks out to the north on Grand Bahama, right near the LLC....

[MississippiWx]

Shear forecasts don't have the highest verification rate, but here is a look at the GFS 12z forecast in 48 hours. You can see the cold front draped through the GOM and across Florida inducing 15-20 knots of shear. You could see slow strengthening once it reaches the GOM, but that should put a damper on anything of significance forming.

Not to be picky, but that's not a cold front in the Gulf. That's NE-ly shear being brought to the Gulf by an upper level anticyclone centered over the Southeast states. The trough is still well off to the west over the Plains.

[NDG]

Shear forecasts don't have the highest verification rate, but here is a look at the GFS 12z forecast in 48 hours. You can see the cold front draped through the GOM and across Florida inducing 15-20 knots of shear. You could see slow strengthening once it reaches the GOM, but that should put a damper on anything of significance forming.

Lol, that's not shear from a cold front, lol.

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro paints a very wet forecast for S FL over the next 36-48 hrs.

makes sense considering the setup...let see if we can get over 6 inches of precip

[Hammy]

Anyone thinking this will be upgraded at 11 tonight given the proximity to land if it maintains steady convection until then?

[Nimbus]

Cold fronts tend to dig south late in the season and pick up any tropical systems.
That's why Texas is usually safe by October.
There is a high sitting over Louisiana currently which would steer the system west until it reaches the cold front.

If the storm ramps up into a hurricane it can pump up the ridging and change the pattern.

Right now we don't even know when the 1st landfall will take place or if evacuation plans for a TS need to be executed. NHC isn't stupid they will schedule a plane if necessary.

[fci]

12z Euro paints a very wet forecast for S FL over the next 36-48 hrs.

Local Met said that HPC had up to 8 inches through Sunday for SE Fla.

[tolakram]

GOES-E now operating in 5 minute scan mode, so someone wants to keep a close eye on this.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25

[NDG]

Anyone thinking this will be upgraded at 11 tonight given the proximity to land if it maintains steady convection until then?

If it maintains the convection close to its LLC through the night and if surface reports winds close to TD they might, IMO.

[SeGaBob]

Bob you are 100% right, forgot it was 20/30, so the 2 day is up, IMO though this should be higher on both.

It's fine, and I do agree that chances should be higher.

[windnrain]

Wow. The amount of convection within the span of only 2 hours is incredible.

[tolakram]

RAMSDIS 1K floater is working again.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=20