EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

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Extratropical94
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#381 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun May 25, 2014 11:14 am

Amanda is a category 5 on the S2k track map. ;)
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#382 Postby Meow » Sun May 25, 2014 11:15 am

Amanda is upgraded to a category 5 hurricane... by Storm2K.

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#383 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun May 25, 2014 11:22 am

Meow wrote:Amanda is upgraded to a category 5 hurricane... by Storm2K.

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Hi meowfb! Just guess, which id in Typhoon Bar is me or you can guess tybbs. :D
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Re: Re:

#384 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun May 25, 2014 11:28 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Meow wrote:Here’s the comparison of Amanda in 2014 and Dora in 2011, the same intensity and basin.

Image

I prefer Amanda, however.


They are similar; Dora is larger, but Amanda looks a little better IMO.

Amanda also has stronger convective activity compared to Dora. Amanda also looks better, also IMO.

Is Elida 2002 a good storm to compare this with? I see that that hurricane in a manner similar to Amanda.
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#385 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun May 25, 2014 11:37 am

I think it has peaked. The cloudtops are warming and the eye has shrunken a little.
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#386 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun May 25, 2014 11:37 am

1145z microwave pass (near peak intensity).

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Re: Re:

#387 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 25, 2014 11:38 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Meow wrote:Here’s the comparison of Amanda in 2014 and Dora in 2011, the same intensity and basin.

Image

I prefer Amanda, however.


They are similar; Dora is larger, but Amanda looks a little better IMO.

Amanda also has stronger convective activity compared to Dora. Amanda also looks better, also IMO.

Is Elida 2002 a good storm to compare this with? I see that that hurricane in a manner similar to Amanda.


Elida was 140 knts, but yes, IMO.
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#388 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun May 25, 2014 11:50 am

The break in deep convection right around the eye suggests that Amanda is starting an eyewall replacement cycle.

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#389 Postby Meow » Sun May 25, 2014 12:03 pm

No sign of any eyewall replacement circle

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Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane

#390 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 25, 2014 12:03 pm

Image

Still looks terrific IMO.
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#391 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2014 12:07 pm

It might have a shot at Cat 5...wow, this would be like a near-Cat 5 in the Atlantic in mid to late June. Even 2005 couldn't do that.
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Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane

#392 Postby Sanibel » Sun May 25, 2014 12:09 pm

Just waking up and checking in for the season and see there's early Pacific action.
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#393 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun May 25, 2014 12:29 pm

Definitely starting a weakening trend as of the 17z image. The eye is cooler and there's a break in the -70C convection in the eyewall.
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#394 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun May 25, 2014 12:37 pm

I agree with the weakening. Now that Amanda has likely passed its climax, at what frame would you say it was at that climax this morning?
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Re:

#395 Postby Meow » Sun May 25, 2014 12:38 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Definitely starting a weakening trend as of the 17z image. The eye is cooler and there's a break in the -70C convection in the eyewall.

The west side is much warmer now, and the eye becomes OW.

Image

Still an amazing hurricane, but Amanda is not possible to become a category 5.
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#396 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 25, 2014 12:42 pm

Most models suggest a very rapid weakening. It may fall a category every 6 hours...

Peak intensity was probably at 1200Z.
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Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane

#397 Postby supercane4867 » Sun May 25, 2014 12:49 pm

12Z HWRF initializes Amanda as a Cat.5, 175kt on 850mb level translates to about 140kt at surface

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#398 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 25, 2014 12:51 pm

I'd say it goes to do 130-125 knt at the ATCF.
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Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane

#399 Postby supercane4867 » Sun May 25, 2014 1:15 pm

This is what a near Cat.5 looks like with recon

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Warmer eye, colder cloudtops

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Re: EPAC: AMANDA - Hurricane

#400 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 25, 2014 1:25 pm

supercane4867 wrote:This is what a near Cat.5 looks like with recon

Image

Warmer eye, colder cloudtops

Image


I think Jimena may have been a little better organized though. While I think Jimena was a Cat 5, I think Amanda looks stronger.
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