ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#381 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:15 pm

Live visible loop. Stay safe down there!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=18&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

#382 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:17 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, Gonzalo looks rather impressive right now. This system may make a run at major hurricane status as it makes the turn and I pray it doesn't make a direct impact on Bermuda in a few days like Fay just did over this past weekend.

This is more than likely going to be the strongest storm of the season? That is, unless, the season is really ramping now....

Well, Gonzalo is in a very favorable environment, probably the most conducive for development that the Atlantic basin has been all season long out there. Low shear, high ssts, good upper level anticyclone. I don't see really anything hindering Gonzalo from attaining possible Cat 3 status within the next 48 hours or so. It is going to be a very close call for the people on Bermuda. I just pray somehow that Gonzalo will not make a direct landfall there, like Fay did. Hopefully they will just see outer, fringe effects there, although that still may be significant tropical storm force winds in this scenario since Gonzalo will probably get within 100-150 miles to the island.

weathernerdguy · #383 Postby **weathernerdguy** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:24 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, Gonzalo looks rather impressive right now. This system may make a run at major hurricane status as it makes the turn and I pray it doesn't make a direct impact on Bermuda in a few days like Fay just did over this past weekend.

This is more than likely going to be the strongest storm of the season? That is, unless, the season is really ramping now....

Well, Gonzalo is in a very favorable environment, probably the most conducive for development that the Atlantic basin has been all season long out there. Low shear, high ssts, good upper level anticyclone. I don't see really anything hindering Gonzalo from attaining possible Cat 3 status within the next 48 hours or so. It is going to be a very close call for the people on Bermuda. I just pray somehow that Gonzalo will not make a direct landfall there, like Fay did. Hopefully they will just see outer, fringe effects there, although that still may be significant tropical storm force winds in this scenario since Gonzalo will probably get within 100-150 miles to the island.

Does this have a shot to be the first cat 4 in 3 years?

ScottNAtlanta · #384 Postby **ScottNAtlanta** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:27 pm

Recon has a 70kt surface wind southwest of the center, but the one prior and after were marked suspect so not sure if thats a real reading.

#385 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:29 pm

That is in the SW quad too, which is supposed to be the WEAKEST part of the storm.

#386 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:31 pm

Pressure down to 986-987mb

#387 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:31 pm

weathernerdguy, I think there is a chance it can reach Cat 3 at 111 mph or more. If shear conditions continue to stay relatively low past 72 hours, there may be a slight chance for it to attain 125 kts (Cat 4), but I don't think it will get that powerful however. However, never say never with the tropics, and weather in general for that matter.

MaineWeatherNut · #388 Postby **MaineWeatherNut** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:32 pm

Pressure down to around 986.6mb

#389 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:32 pm

So far 72 knots at flight level is the highest winds, but on the next update from recon should show even higher winds.

#390 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:39 pm

I think they should go with an upgrade at 2 PM, there is an unflagged 64 knot reading by the SFMR.

#391 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:40 pm

NDG wrote:I think they should go with an upgrade at 2 PM, there is an unflagged 64 knot reading by the SFMR.

Agreed, it looks like we will see a Special Advisory soon. Both FL and SFMR winds support a 65 kt intensity.

#392 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:40 pm

I just noticed that the recon is flying at H70 so that 986 mb reading is probably more like 988-989mb.

#393 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:44 pm

no justification for an upgrade yet. Winds about 60 kts based upon the aircraft and surface data

beoumont · #394 Postby **beoumont** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:44 pm

beoumont wrote:Wild guess for recon. first reading this afternoon: 987 mb.

Below, Antiqua says: "Something's happening here."

13 04:00 NE 32 NA Light Rain Heavy Showers Rain and Windy
13 03:00 NE 29 NA Heavy Showers Rain and Windy
13 02:00 NE 21 NA Heavy Showers Rain and Breezy
13 01:00 E 17 NA Light Showers Rain Showers Rain

Just to toot my own horn, no-one else probably will: referring to my before dawn post and wild guess. Recon report below ---

Time: 17:21:30Z
Coordinates: 17.533N 62.317W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,036 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.6 mb (29.14 inHg)

Hammy · #395 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:45 pm

Looks like data still doesn't quite support hurricane intensity at the moment, likely due to some dry air being worked out still. Arthur had the same problem east of Florida, though the environment ahead of Gonzalo looks more favorable (especially in regards to water temperatures) so it should strengthen pretty quickly tonight.

#396 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:47 pm

shaking my head about dry air...

the thing has intensified by 20 mb in 24 hours. The conditions obviously were quite favorable to allow it to do that

#397 Postby **msbee** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:48 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, Gonzalo looks rather impressive right now. This system may make a run at major hurricane status as it makes the turn and I pray it doesn't make a direct impact on Bermuda in a few days like Fay just did over this past weekend.

This is more than likely going to be the strongest storm of the season? That is, unless, the season is really ramping now....

Well, Gonzalo is in a very favorable environment, probably the most conducive for development that the Atlantic basin has been all season long out there. Low shear, high ssts, good upper level anticyclone. I don't see really anything hindering Gonzalo from attaining possible Cat 3 status within the next 48 hours or so. It is going to be a very close call for the people on Bermuda. I just pray somehow that Gonzalo will not make a direct landfall there, like Fay did. Hopefully they will just see outer, fringe effects there, although that still may be significant tropical storm force winds in this scenario since Gonzalo will probably get within 100-150 miles to the island.

Bermuda? Have you forgotten all the Caribbean islands that are currently getting bombarded by this storm?

supercane4867 · #398 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:48 pm

VDM says hurricane

000
URNT12 KNHC 131746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 13/17:21:00Z
B. 17 deg 32 min N
062 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2998 m
D. 64 kt
E. 241 deg 4 nm
F. 302 deg 47 kt
G. 219 deg 9 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 8 C / 3050 m
J. 14 C / 3049 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W - E
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0308A GONZALO OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72 KT 051 / 27 NM 17:28:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 020 / 07 KT
;

Hammy · #399 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:50 pm

Alyono wrote:shaking my head about dry air...

the thing has intensified by 20 mb in 24 hours. The conditions obviously were quite favorable to allow it to do that

The point was that it is not strengthening as fast as it would otherwise, and the radar presentation, lack of closed eye to the south as well as largely nonexistent rain to the southwest indicates there is still at least a small amount of dry air in the system.

#400 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:50 pm

its called, this was a wave/depression yesterday. Do we expect it to go from a wave to a concentric eye in 24 hours?

ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re:

Who is online