WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression

[dexterlabio]

12z Euro back with a stronger cyclone. First half of the track same with GFS but the difference is Euro tracks the storm further west until it dies, while the GFS recurves the storm off the coastline of Samar.

[euro6208]

Cranking up...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
154.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.1N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY 326 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Very low latitute...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks organized enough to develop. We could see no more than a category 1 typhoon.

[South Texas Storms]

Is this the potential system that could enhance westerlies in the ENSO regions?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has a fairly strong cyclone.

[dexterlabio]

Is this the potential system that could enhance westerlies in the ENSO regions?

I think it's possible given that the potential storm is very close to the equator though it's quite far from the central Pacific when it's expected to become stronger. Who knows, this could be this year's STY Isa and a real game changer for ENSO.

[Ntxw]

Not to derail but this was some discussion with STS over in the Texas thread. Watching very closely the WPAC!

Thanks for answering! Yeah I remember you saying last month that a wet weather pattern would begin in the second half of April and now the models are starting to agree with you. Will the possible developing tropical cyclone currently in the WPAC help to cause the WWB in the ENSO regions or will this happen a little later this month?

It's one of those chicken or egg things. Is the WWB causing the typhoon or the typhoon creating WWB? Probably both, feedback regardless of which did what each one enhances the other. I think there could be more than just one typhoon as the MJO progresses east eventually to the CPAC as well. It's good correlation for NA that when there is a typhoon, weather happens down the road.

MJO is quickly pacing through the IO and Maritime Continent. It's following closely the MJO pulse around the same time in 1997 April with Isa. Whether 95W is the candidate or not the region remains favorable for more development.

[stormkite]

Whats really interesting is the two lows mirroring each other about the equator. looks a similar scenario as back in February.
One strong cyclone in the Shem may aid in a stronger WWB near the date line.


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[euro6208]

up to medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.1N
153.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.5N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012311Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 012355Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[stormstrike]

oh good.models are looking good. a recurve! except for ecmwf but at least a weak one. hoping for consistency.

[euro6208]

NWS Guam:

JTWC LOW INVEST AREA 95W IS PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 2N150E.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W CENTERED NEAR
2N150E HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF CHUUK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 95W
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED BY JTWC
FROM A LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRADE- WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CHUUK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PALAU
AND YAP STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF 95W. EFFECTS FROM
95W ARE SLATED TO BEGIN AT YAP SATURDAY AND KOROR SUNDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE CENTER OF 95W PASSING CLOSE TO KOROR SUNDAY
NIGHT. DOWNPLAYED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF 95W BECOMING A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IN THE FORECAST FOR KOROR AND YAP. HOWEVER...DID
TWEAK THE FORECAST TO INDICATE HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS DURING THE
WEEKEND TIME FRAME SINCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR DUE TO TRENDS IN WAVE WATCH
OUTPUT.

[cycloneye]

JMA begins to mention it:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 02N 148E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

20140402 1432 2.7 -148.3 T1.0/1.0 95W 95W

[cycloneye]

95W taking the form of a cyclone developing.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued

WTPN21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 0.9N 149.0E TO 4.7N 143.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 1.9N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.5N
150.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.9N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 724 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 021658Z 37 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
LLCC, BUT RECENTLY THE EIR INDICATES THAT THE SYMMETRY IS IMPROVING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AS
WELL. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE
ISLAND OF PALAU AS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.

[euro6208]

PGTW already reporting 2.0!

An upgrade later on today or sooner...

[Spin]

Would this invest be the lowest-latitude ever tropical cyclone in WPAC if it develops at 2N?

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 02N 148E WEST SLOWLY

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Right now, we are seeing a very organized disturbance at low latitude. If this passes through the area of low shear, it will definitely become a typhoon or maybe even a super! I am not sure of the track because there is not enough certainty. This could also favor development of the El Niño.