ATL: INVEST 90L

[TheStormExpert]

This could be one of those situations where either the models are correct or wrong all together.

[CFLHurricane]

In regards to how this season already frustrates me:

1) Shear is howling over the gulf. When is shear not howling over the gulf?

2) for the Atlantic- When does the SAL ever let up?

3) The models keep pushing this system later and later. And not in the direction I want this system to go.

Hopefully we'll at least get some good systems at peak.

[cycloneye]

Recon will go this afternoon! Follow the data here

[Evil Jeremy]

In regards to how this season already frustrates me:

1) Shear is howling over the gulf. When is shear not howling over the gulf?

2) for the Atlantic- When does the SAL ever let up?

3) The models keep pushing this system later and later. And not in the direction I want this system to go.

Hopefully we'll at least get some good systems at peak.

We are literally just 5 days into a 6 month long season. Many years, there aren't even storms in June. Calm down.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon will go this afternoon! Follow the data here

Awesome! Flight takes off in less than an hour if im not mistaken, right?

[RL3AO]

Unless they want a practice fight, I see no reason for recon to go out today.

[SouthDadeFish]

Unless they want a practice fight, I see no reason for recon to go out today.

Really? I'm curious why you think so. In my opinion, the system has gradually become better organized over the past 24 hours, and convection has increased recently near the expected center. It will be interesting to see if recon can find a tight LLC, as satellite imagery shows clear cyclonic turning.

[SeGaBob]

When recons flies into systems they generally sample the environment around it too right?

[djones65]

Actually Luis, I believe the flight for today is NOT going to go. If you look at the TCPOD it says flight 01AAA is scheduled for tomorrow June 6th, not June 5th. If the flight was taking off today tomorrow's TCPOD would indicate flight 02AAA instead of 01.

So it appears to me that the flight is not going to happen after all.

[Riptide]

In regards to how this season already frustrates me:

1) Shear is howling over the gulf. When is shear not howling over the gulf?

2) for the Atlantic- When does the SAL ever let up?

3) The models keep pushing this system later and later. And not in the direction I want this system to go.

Hopefully we'll at least get some good systems at peak.

We are literally just 5 days into a 6 month long season. Many years, there aren't even storms in June. Calm down.

Looks like enthusiasts are frustrated after last year's dead Atlantic TC season.

[cycloneye]

Actually Luis, I believe the flight for today is NOT going to go. If you look at the TCPOD it says flight 01AAA is scheduled for tomorrow June 6th, not June 5th. If the flight was taking off today tomorrow's TCPOD would indicate flight 02AAA instead of 01.

So it appears to me that the flight is not going to happen after all.

Well,I didn't realize that but they didn't add a remark about the flight being canceled. Guess what,we will know for sure around noon EDT if it departs from base.

[RL3AO]

Unless they want a practice fight, I see no reason for recon to go out today.

Really? I'm curious why you think so. In my opinion, the system has gradually become better organized over the past 24 hours, and convection has increased recently near the expected center. It will be interesting to see if recon can find a tight LLC, as satellite imagery shows clear cyclonic turning.

I guess my quick look at satellite earlier missed the apparent turning off the coast. I guess I can see then flying into but I'd be pretty shocked if they found enough to initiate advisories.

[fci]

This could be one of those situations where either the models are correct or wrong all together.

Are there any other options besides correct or wrong?

[SouthDadeFish]

Unless they want a practice fight, I see no reason for recon to go out today.

Really? I'm curious why you think so. In my opinion, the system has gradually become better organized over the past 24 hours, and convection has increased recently near the expected center. It will be interesting to see if recon can find a tight LLC, as satellite imagery shows clear cyclonic turning.

I guess my quick look at satellite earlier missed the apparent turning off the coast. I guess I can see then flying into but I'd be pretty shocked if they found enough to initiate advisories.

Advisories would be surprising since the convection hasn't been persistent enough. I just would like to see what the wind field looks like.

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing recon isn't going... the site isn't updating but that is only my opinion.

[Alyono]

there is no note about the flight being cancelled

[Frank2]

Per the latest GFS a ridge will remain across Central Florida into the GOM through next week, and that's in agreement with this morning's model plots, so looks better for Florida and the northern Gulf Coast...

P.S. The above is my own opinion...

Frank

[ouragans]

Actually Luis, I believe the flight for today is NOT going to go. If you look at the TCPOD it says flight 01AAA is scheduled for tomorrow June 6th, not June 5th. If the flight was taking off today tomorrow's TCPOD would indicate flight 02AAA instead of 01.

So it appears to me that the flight is not going to happen after all.

Well,I didn't realize that but they didn't add a remark about the flight being canceled. Guess what,we will know for sure around noon EDT if it departs from base.

Sorry guys, but today's mission apparently is still on

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1600Z
D. 19.0N 94.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Takeoff planned at 1830z, so we have time for a little nap before the first mission on this season

[wxman57]

Looks better organized today to me. I still think >50% chance of development to a TD and quite possibly a 35-40 kt TS before it moves ashore north of Veracruz on Saturday. It may be close to becoming a TD right now. I can see what appears to be an LLC and there is some convection near the center. No threat to the northern Gulf of Florida from this one.

[hurricanekid416]

What happened to this thing going to Florida that's What everyone was saying a few days back