EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Warm water may be ineffective when air is dry. I still expect little development from this and the probability of a hurricane, while not completely nil, is low, in my opinion.

It's not that dry, and even then dry air can not be a problem without some degree of shear.

[hurricanes1234]

Warm water may be ineffective when air is dry. I still expect little development from this and the probability of a hurricane, while not completely nil, is low, in my opinion.

It's not that dry, and even then dry air can not be a problem without some degree of shear.

What do you think this will peak as? Thanks.

[Yellow Evan]

Warm water may be ineffective when air is dry. I still expect little development from this and the probability of a hurricane, while not completely nil, is low, in my opinion.

It's not that dry, and even then dry air can not be a problem without some degree of shear.

What do you think this will peak as? Thanks.

Really have no clue. This could bust; it could be a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad and elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and this system will
likely become a tropical depression during the next few days while
it moves generally northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

That lack of proper convection isn't going to convince me. I am slightly leaning towards the possibility that this could bust completely. I will wait until MJO arrives before I think we will see another decent hurricane. However, that's just my opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

That lack of proper convection isn't going to convince me. I am slightly leaning towards the possibility that this could bust completely. I will wait until MJO arrives before I think we will see another decent hurricane. However, that's just my opinion.

There is plenty convection. The problem is that it is elongated. Give it time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have a feeling...and we'll see if it plans out...that 94E will get stronger than being depicted by the models given its progress this afternoon and the fact that a *very* strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave is moving across the Pacific. We've seen time and time again that these aid in the development and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Raymond 2013 is a good example.

Anyways, back to what I was saying about this afternoon. 94E has done a great job at shedding excess convection. Given that we see only one focused ball of convection, I'd say the system now has a concise center of circulation.

Designation might come in the next 36 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

I have a feeling...and we'll see if it plans out...that 94E will get stronger than being depicted by the models given its progress this afternoon and the fact that a *very* strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave is moving across the Pacific. We've seen time and time again that these aid in the development and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Raymond 2013 is a good example.

Anyways, back to what I was saying about this afternoon. 94E has done a great job at shedding excess convection. Given that we see only one focused ball of convection, I'd say the system now has a concise center of circulation.

Designation might come in the next 36 hours.

http://i.imgur.com/PQ3Dgyu.gif

I agree that 94E looks better now. We could see this be a cod red tonight. In all, conditions still look pretty good for intensification.

[hurricanes1234]

Now that you mentioned it, it does look a little more organized now. While I'm still not 100% confident on this becoming a hurricane, I do agree with the fact that it looks compact, and compact storms can intensify more quickly (refer to Hurricane Amanda). Tomorrow morning will give me a better understanding of what's going on.

[Yellow Evan]

Now that you mentioned it, it does look a little more organized now. While I'm still not 100% confident on this becoming a hurricane, I do agree with the fact that it looks compact, and compact storms can intensify more quickly (refer to Hurricane Amanda). Tomorrow morning will give me a better understanding of what's going on.

Most EPAC storms look compact. If shear is low and it stays over warm SST's, intensification to a hurricane is very possible IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess I would not be surprised if this gets classified tomorrow, or on Tuesday. The size of the system could help in favoring further organizing and to let it be able to easily consolidate. Conditions are favorable now, I would expect a stronger system than what the models are predicting, or maybe the HWRF prediction a few days ago [it is Monday already here in my place], wherein they predicted a low-end major hurricane, could pan out. Let's wait for the NHC to upgrade this and see their forecast.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The HWRF has spot-on forecasts for this year over the basin. The model is now consistently forecasting at least a hurricane from this. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS are only forecasting a system that is barely a tropical storm.

[Yellow Evan]

I guess I would not be surprised if this gets classified tomorrow, or on Tuesday. The size of the system could help in favoring further organizing and to let it be able to easily consolidate. Conditions are favorable now, I would expect a stronger system than what the models are predicting, or maybe the HWRF prediction a few days ago [it is Monday already here in my place], wherein they predicted a low-end major hurricane, could pan out. Let's wait for the NHC to upgrade this and see their forecast.

HWRF is still pretty bullish. I'd say we end up with a strong TS or minimal hurricane. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

I guess I would not be surprised if this gets classified tomorrow, or on Tuesday. The size of the system could help in favoring further organizing and to let it be able to easily consolidate. Conditions are favorable now, I would expect a stronger system than what the models are predicting, or maybe the HWRF prediction a few days ago [it is Monday already here in my place], wherein they predicted a low-end major hurricane, could pan out. Let's wait for the NHC to upgrade this and see their forecast.

HWRF is still pretty bullish. I'd say we end up with a strong TS or minimal hurricane. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would be bullish right now as well with how good it looks. 94E looks great. Needs to start moving west though.

[Yellow Evan]

I guess I would not be surprised if this gets classified tomorrow, or on Tuesday. The size of the system could help in favoring further organizing and to let it be able to easily consolidate. Conditions are favorable now, I would expect a stronger system than what the models are predicting, or maybe the HWRF prediction a few days ago [it is Monday already here in my place], wherein they predicted a low-end major hurricane, could pan out. Let's wait for the NHC to upgrade this and see their forecast.

HWRF is still pretty bullish. I'd say we end up with a strong TS or minimal hurricane. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would be bullish right now as well with how good it looks. 94E looks great. Needs to start moving west though.

It's center's pretty far west. Land should not be an issue.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloudiness and showers remain disorganized in association with a
broad and elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and this system will
likely become a tropical depression during the next few days while
it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

[hurricanes1234]

Where's the center? All I see is a large eastern rainband and no convection elsewhere. It looks worse this morning. Until I can see proper and steady development (i.e. not the halfway, occasional "development" that has been going on), I will continue to see this just not forming period. I'm going with the models which forecast a minimal tropical storm, if it does develop.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Where's the center? All I see is a large eastern rainband and no convection elsewhere. It looks worse this morning. Until I can see proper and steady development (i.e. not the halfway, occasional "development" that has been going on), I will continue to see this just not forming period. I'm going with the models which forecast a minimal tropical storm, if it does develop.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You're being overcritical of the system IMO. Yes, convection weakened due to D-Min, but it's not a mess like it was 24 hours ago.

As of right now, there's quite a bit of convection. Center to the north though.