EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Will this continue the pattern of the early forecasts drastically under forecasting the rate of intensification that we've seen in the EPAC this year?

[hurricanes1234]

That was fast. I won't be surprised to see a major from this.

[Yellow Evan]

That was fast.

It's declaration was no surprise after they went with 90/90 at 0z.

[Yellow Evan]

I think 70 knts peak is conservative. IMO there is nothing from stopping it really. Although the forecast track after day 3 is tricky.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Will this continue the pattern of the early forecasts drastically under forecasting the rate of intensification that we've seen in the EPAC this year?

I'd say it's very likely given the projected upper-air pattern as forecast by the GFS, with a potent jet stream lying northwest of the system in a few days. That should enhance the poleward outflow jet and increase divergence.

My early call is that this becomes Major Hurricane Karina.

[Kingarabian]

Not looking so good for Hawaii, then.

[Yellow Evan]

Not looking so good for Hawaii, then.

Eh, the stronger it gets the more likely it gets carried up by the upper level winds north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Not looking so good for Hawaii, then.

Eh, the stronger it gets the more likely it gets carried up by the upper level winds north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That 10/40 system could develop and keep Karina in check if not force it south.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the west
of the center of the depression during the last several hours. The
banding features, however, have become a little less defined
recently. ASCAT passes at 0420 and 0506 UTC showed maximum winds of
about 30 kt, and Dvorak intensity estimates also support an
intensity of that value. Therefore, the initial wind speed estimate
remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central
United States. This ridge is expected to build over the Pacific
Ocean, which should steer the tropical cyclone westward away from
Mexico during the next several days. The model guidance has shifted
a little to the north and is faster this cycle, and the official
track forecast has been adjusted to account for these changes. The
ECMWF is now in better agreement with the remainder of the guidance
as the latest run shows less interaction with a developing
disturbance to the east of the cyclone.

Moderate northeasterly shear is currently affecting the system,
which is likely the reason why the convection is currently displaced
to the west of the center. The shear is expected to lessen during
the next day or so, and the environmental winds are anticipated to
remain conducive for development through the remainder of the
forecast period. In addition, warm water and a relatively moist
air mass should also support strengthening. The SHIPS and LGEM
models respond to the favorable environment and show a steady
strengthening trend. Conversely, the HWRF and GFDL models predict
little or no strengthening of the system. Given the aforementioned
environmental conditions, the official intensity forecast remains
higher than the consensus in favor of the SHIPS and LGEM solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 17.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Not looking so good for Hawaii, then.

Eh, the stronger it gets the more likely it gets carried up by the upper level winds north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That 10/40 system could develop and keep Karina in check if not force it south.

If anything, ill think it'll force it north. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2014081312, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1104W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1010, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M,

[euro6208]

11E ELEVEN 140813 1200 17.1N 110.4W EPAC 35 1005

Karina!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KARINA AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 111.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

Deep convection has continued to increase with cloud tops of -80C
to -84C noted just west of low-level center. Satellite intensity
estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS
ADT. An earlier ASCAT overpass also indicated surface winds near
34 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Karina.

Karina is moving westward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery
of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge anchored over the
south-central and southwestern United States. The ridge is forecast
by the global models to build westward to the north and northwest
of the cyclone, which should keep Karina on a basic westward motion
throughout the 5-day period. The model guidance envelope has
shifted a little to the south with increasing spread, especially
beyond 72 hours. This is mainly due to the significant southward
shift by the ECMWF model, which shows a much weaker system being
steered more southwestward by moderate northeasterly trade wind
flow. The ECMWF model is considered to be an outlier at this time,
and the official track forecast is just a little faster than the
previous advisory and lies near the consensus model TCVE.

Karina is experiencing northeasterly vertical wind shear of 12-14
kt. Despite these modest shear conditions, the convective cloud
pattern of Karina has continued to develop into a classic hooked
band appearance, plus a small central dense overcast feature.
Microwave satellite data also suggests that the inner core wind
field has tightened somewhat up since the previous advisory. With
the wind shear currently affecting the system forecast to slowly
subside over the next 4 to 5 days while the cyclone is over 28-29C
SSTs, steady intensification appears likely. This development
scenario is consistent with the trend of all of the NHC model
guidance, and the NHC official intensity forecast indicates this by
making Karina a hurricane by 48 hours, which is higher than the ICON
intensity consensus model and closer to the SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 17.2N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.4N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.6N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.3N 124.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 18.5N 131.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[meriland23]

I am surprised ( given the current position) that this is predicted to not only go straight west, but go under Hawaii by the time it gets there. I am surprised Hawaii is such a hot target for EPAC hurricanes \ TS this year.

[Yellow Evan]

I am surprised ( given the current position) that this is predicted to not only go straight west, but go under Hawaii by the time it gets there. I am surprised Hawaii is such a hot target for EPAC hurricanes \ TS this year.

There's a lot of uncertainty so I would not expect it to go south of Hawaii. I'd be more worried abut 90E if I were you.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF develops both this and low behind modestly.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TS Karina is looking good and will become a Hurricane later this week. I think this won't be a concern to Hawaii at this time. Maybe 90E will be nearing Hawaii.

Synopsis for Karina and other systems: http://goo.gl/zxroZv


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

TS Karina is looking good and will become a Hurricane later this week. I think this won't be a concern to Hawaii at this time. Maybe 90E will be nearing Hawaii.

Synopsis for Karina and other systems: http://goo.gl/zxroZv


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why wasn't Julio covered?

[Yellow Evan]

Not bad.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings this somewhat close to Hawaii ... in two weeks