ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Kingarabian]

18Z GFS out through 108 hours looks more to the right (north) of 12Z GFS and has it heading WNW over the southern tip of Haiti...

Yeah close call with Hispanola.

[gatorcane]

saved image, 108 hours (since we went to a new page):

[Steve]

18z then cuts west to Jamaica which is still way south of the GEM which rode the North Cuban coast at 12z. So we will have to see where 18z crosses Cuba relative to 12z

[wyq614]

It's scary for me to learn that this may be a Cuba threat...

[Steve]

Looks like a farther west cross of Cuba with a slightly more westerly component to the track. Atlantic ridge still nosing into FL behind washing out or lifting out front. Will there be enough there to take it out and up or will it be too far south and head into the Gulf?

[northjaxpro]

saved image, 108 hours (since we went to a new page):

Notice the backdoor front showing prominently on this run diving down the U.S. Eastern seaboard and stretching across the Western North Atlantic late on Sunday. How much that trough will dig?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS looks like it is more to the left (west) once the system crosses north of Cuba in the Gulf....it's showing more ridging over the Northern Gulf. Out through 180 hours.

Hello GOM moving WNW to NW:

[Steve]

Yikes. 18z runs right to the loop current area of the Central Gulf. I'll stick around to see where it ends up, but no freakin way.

[Steve]

Hmm slight jog or west bend in the last frame loaded so far. Definitely heading farther west initially than 12z. 18z GFS often swings right so that is an interesting twist. Still around 25/26 north as best as I can tell on my phone.

[Steve]

Appears headed to Morgan City area (St Mary Parish) but it still appears 12-18 hours prior to landfall so....

[Steve]

Jefferson County/Cameron Parish ala Ike or Rita. That's a nasty scenario for those folks.

[Hurricaneman]

216hr on the 18zGFS has landfall around Beaumont, TX but being 9 days away that will probably change several times

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[WilmingtonSandbar]

It's scary for me to learn that this may be a Cuba threat...

Does this mean we can get reports from Cuba now? That's a first, isn't it?

[KatDaddy]

I will definitely be watching the developments of Invest 96L. Its a long way out may very well become a GOM threat. Being at the low latitude it will make it further W before turning more northward.

[perk]

So let's recap the GFS runs so far today.6Z Houston/Galveston,12Z Alabama, 18Z Beaumont.The only thing these runs have in common is the locations are in the northern GOM.

[rockyman]

The GFS seems very consistent over the past several runs, with a system entering the Caribbean, grazing the Greater Antilles, slowly strengthening, then more rapidly strengthening as it enters the Gulf, heading west of north.

[tolakram]

Saved images from the 18Z GFS run. Very weak until the northwest Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

The GFS seems very consistent over the past several runs, with a system entering the Caribbean, grazing the Greater Antilles, slowly strengthening, then more rapidly strengthening as it enters the Gulf, heading west of north.

Well, I don't know about grazing the Greater Antilles. A few of our reliable models have 96L impacting Hispaniola and Cuba with direct landfall. Hispaniola can really disrupt tropical cyclones, so always keep that as a factor with systems crossing through the Greater Antilles. So many variables to watch with this system. It can work the other way too. I have seen strong tropical cyclones rebound nicely from making landfall over Hispaniola, with David '79 coming immediately to my mind and other systems as other posters will point out.

[CrazyC83]

I agree Hispaniola could really change things. That said, the water near Cuba is the warmest in the basin - look at Gustav for example, went from a weak tropical storm off Hispaniola to nearly a Cat 5 approaching Cuba before weakening.

[northjaxpro]

I agree Hispaniola could really change things. That said, the water near Cuba is the warmest in the basin - look at Gustav for example, went from a weak tropical storm off Hispaniola to nearly a Cat 5 approaching Cuba before weakening.

Oh yeah, as we have discussed thoroughly on another thread about the warm SSTs in the Bahamas, FL Straits and NW Caribbean, there will be the potential of a system rapidly strengthening if it moves over these areas, as well as the Gulf of Mexico. I was simply pointing out that this potential system (96L) just may not just "graze" through the Greater Antilles. Could be that it rams right into Hispaniola and really get disrupted. We will just have to see. But, even if it does make impact with Hispaniola, the conditions are favorable down the road for 96L to recover and even re-intensify strongly again. We shall see how it pans out..