ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Hmm....

[tropicwatch]

The Weather Stations out of Great Abaco should give us some good readings as 92l progresses westward.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=30.15654945&lon=-85.64855957&zoom=8&pin=Panama%20City%2c%20FL&rad=1&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0

[gatorcane]

Sea surface temperatures are very warm across the area. I am seeing some mid 80s along the SE Coast of Florida and through the Bahamas. Good "rocket fuel" for this disturbance for sure. Tonight during DMAX ought to be very interesting as far as convection if we are seeing this as we head towards DMIN.

[Sanibel]

Those Bahamian islands should act as speed brakes for Florida.

[Weatherboy1]

Issue in terms of potential strength ... IF ... we get a TD out of this is that it just doesn't have a lot of time to get its act together. I certainly don't see this thing spinning up into a hurricane unless there's some out-of-the-blue, rapid deepening-type process that gets underway. More than likely is a minimal TS (in my opinion, as always)

[Blown Away]

From a historical perspective, just a handfull of TS that formed in this area that moved towards Florida... So something more than a TD or weak TS is unlikely based on history... That being said, I never thought Ike would go north of 20/60 and goto Texas...

[jlauderdal]

Those Bahamian islands should act as speed brakes for Florida.

those islands have nil effect..they are flat, they are small and they are surronded by bath water

[Sanibel]

The convection has formed in tight curvature quickly. I'm not saying this will bomb but that pre-Dvorak shape does not do anything to exclude the possibility. My personal opinion is like the others. TS. But keep an eye on the shape of that convection over the next few hours it might tell you something.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

I am amazed in a matter of only several hours or so how it can go from nothing to something like this. Truly amazing.

It seems whatever LLC was there and exposed is sliding under the deep convection that just started blowing up...what is going to happen next I wonder?

[tolakram]

Latest

[AJC3]

Pretty respectable M/I pass at 1641 UTC...

[CrazyC83]

If it develops, warnings would be needed immediately, so the NHC cannot wait for persistence in this case. If it develops a surface circulation, they would need to immediately call it TD6 and issue advisories at the first possible moment.

[ronjon]

Issue in terms of potential strength ... IF ... we get a TD out of this is that it just doesn't have a lot of time to get its act together. I certainly don't see this thing spinning up into a hurricane unless there's some out-of-the-blue, rapid deepening-type process that gets underway. More than likely is a minimal TS (in my opinion, as always)

What do you mean?..according to the models..it has another 36-48 hours over water.

[SFLcane]

Should definitely see some orange at next TWO

[gatorcane]

I wonder if they are going to fly a plane into this maybe later today or tonight?

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-THU...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
ONSHORE WIND FLOW. LOW LEVEL SWIRL NOTED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS LOOKS RATHER WELL INITIALIZED BY THE GFS. THE
MODEL PUSHES THE FEATURE SLOWLY WEST TO NEAR GRAND BAHAMA LATE
THU. NHC IS MONITORING THIS FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

NWS Melbourne nibbling, but have not taken the hook yet...

[jhpigott]

some of the convection to the NW of low level turning is starting to come into range of Melbourne's long range radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[SFLcane]

Another great loop...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

[Weatherboy1]

Issue in terms of potential strength ... IF ... we get a TD out of this is that it just doesn't have a lot of time to get its act together. I certainly don't see this thing spinning up into a hurricane unless there's some out-of-the-blue, rapid deepening-type process that gets underway. More than likely is a minimal TS (in my opinion, as always)

What do you mean?..according to the models..it has another 36-48 hours over water.

If there's anything we've seen this season, it's that rapid intensification of systems just ain't happenin'. Plus, the center may move over Grand Bahamas which, while flat and surrounded by water, would likely at least provide some marginal resistance to strengthening. Doesn't mean it's not POSSIBLE, just that it's IMPROBABLE that it gets any stronger than a minimal TS. That's only my opinion, of course, so we do have to watch just in case.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-THU...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
ONSHORE WIND FLOW. LOW LEVEL SWIRL NOTED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS LOOKS RATHER WELL INITIALIZED BY THE GFS. THE
MODEL PUSHES THE FEATURE SLOWLY WEST TO NEAR GRAND BAHAMA LATE
THU. NHC IS MONITORING THIS FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

NWS Melbourne nibbling, but have not taken the hook yet...

LOL, Tony (AJC3) probably wrote that!