ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

its likely dead. Environmental conditions simply down right hostile right now

It's only July however. We should see activity toward the end of August. Indications are that conditions may be quite favorable then

Less dry air?

large scale upward velocities in the Atlantic, vs the current large scale sinking velocities

[Frank2]

Right now it looks more like a wave than a low pressure area - too much dry air. The other night people were comparing it to Allen, but at this longitude Allen was already a tropical storm...

Frank

[Blown Away]

Seems 93L is going to stay weak/shallow and may continue on a more westward vs WNW track. Maybe it stays below the big islands and finds a better window to deepen than above the islands???

[ninel conde]

Seems 93L is going to stay weak/shallow and may continue on a more westward vs WNW track. Maybe it stays below the big islands and finds a better window to deepen than above the islands???

i see no place favorable further west.

[StarmanHDB]

Cyclonic rotation is definitely there, but it looks like the whole column is teetering like a drunken sailor. Is that scientific enough for y'all?

[KWT]

Seems 93L is going to stay weak/shallow and may continue on a more westward vs WNW track. Maybe it stays below the big islands and finds a better window to deepen than above the islands???

You trade slightly more moist environment for higher shear in the Caribbean, so even below the islands the set-up stinks for tropical systems. Probably would have a shot if it can get north and hold on to its identity, as someone said one of those sleeper type systems that find good set-ups as they move N/NE.

With that being said, it has every chance of totally losing its identity and killing itself on some of the Caribbean islands.

LLC looks close to totally opening up now, very elongated look and wobbling around.

[TheStormExpert]

its likely dead. Environmental conditions simply down right hostile right now

It's only July however. We should see activity toward the end of August. Indications are that conditions may be quite favorable then

Less dry air?

large scale upward velocities in the Atlantic, vs the current large scale sinking velocities

A few days ago you were suggesting that the environment has improved some since the past couple of weeks, when in reality the Kelvin Wave was the cause of that, now look at it.

IMO seasons that have this much dry air/SAL in late July usually don't turn around much, if at all. The MJO would be the only hope remaining it seems and that has been and will remain in an unfavorable phase for as far as the models go out.

[TheStormExpert]

My guess is that 2pm TWO chances will be 30/40% respectively. And that's just being generous!

[tropicwatch]

Anybody have a recent sat pic. The most recent I can find is 1445z

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 93L shouldn't amount to much more than some sporadic showers and gusty winds for the Lesser Antilles. It was pretty much over when easterly shear allowed dry air into the circulation. Because this isn't an intensifying cyclone with active convection, it won't be able to split the upper-level trough waiting for it near the islands like the GFS suggested days ago, and it will likely be sheared to death (what remains of it, anyways).

Looking ahead, I don't see any reason to suggest things are going to improve in the Atlantic. Shear may have lowered in the central and eastern Atlantic, but the dry air and SAL are overwhelming, even despite a cool Gulf of Guinea and wet Sahel (fueling stronger-than-average waves). The MJO should lose amplitude as it heads towards our basin early next month.

[floridasun78]

l

Anybody have a recent sat pic. The most recent I can find is 1445z

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Anybody have a recent sat pic. The most recent I can find is 1445z

[tropicwatch]

l

Anybody have a recent sat pic. The most recent I can find is 1445z

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

That one is even older 1415z

[KWT]

My guess is that 2pm TWO chances will be 30/40% respectively. And that's just being generous!

Probably won't be far off, some models still do develop it (however weakly) so they will probably still hedge their bets for another 24hrs. If nothing is happening by that point, it probably never will as it will start to get hit by higher shear near the Caribbean again.

[Alyono]

A few days ago you were suggesting that the environment has improved some since the past couple of weeks, when in reality the Kelvin Wave was the cause of that, now look at it.

IMO seasons that have this much dry air/SAL in late July usually don't turn around much, if at all. The MJO would be the only hope remaining it seems and that has been and will remain in an unfavorable phase for as far as the models go out.

The environment had improved. The more favorable conditions just did not last as long as were expected

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[tropicwatch]

Nap time:)

[gatorcane]

[Alyono]

Invest 93L shouldn't amount to much more than some sporadic showers and gusty winds for the Lesser Antilles. It was pretty much over when easterly shear allowed dry air into the circulation. Because this isn't an intensifying cyclone with active convection, it won't be able to split the upper-level trough waiting for it near the islands like the GFS suggested days ago, and it will likely be sheared to death (what remains of it, anyways).

Looking ahead, I don't see any reason to suggest things are going to improve in the Atlantic. Shear may have lowered in the central and eastern Atlantic, but the dry air and SAL are overwhelming, even despite a cool Gulf of Guinea and wet Sahel (fueling stronger-than-average waves). The MJO should lose amplitude as it heads towards our basin early next month.

For the thousandth time, cold water in the IO favors WEAKER systems. Multiple mets have stated this previously here

[KWT]

Interesting, based on that graphic the NHC seems to think that if it hasn't formed by 60W it probably won't, as the graphic only extends upto roughly its 48hrs position. It would make sense given the models advertise a pretty rough set-up past that point.