ATL: Ex NINE

[floridasun78]

i talk to nhc specialist he say likely td9 wont be strong in nw carribbean will stay weak of now

[HurriGuy]

That is a lot of convection over Yucatan. Can the llc get underneath it and start consolidating thunderstorms around it again?

[floridasun78]

Its interesting to watch the lobe of energy begin to separate and pull ENE towards S. Florida, while meanwhile new strong convection is now bursting over Eastern Yucatan "which theoretically" would help cause to lower pressure with ongoing persistent convection. If the pressure gradient over Yucatan and Central America is fairly flat, that maybe T.D 9 might just kinda of "morph" or become absorbed by an entirely newly developing area of low pressure?? In most years, we'd simply just watch all convection and energy simply get sucked up, stretched out, and pulled Northeastward along the advancing front. Whether such a redeveloped W. Caribbean low were considered the same identity as T.D. 9 or not, would be essentially academic. Such a process however, would seem to aid in pulling in, and salvaging what vorticity that T.D.9 possesses.

THIS is the reason for my prior inquiry regarding the potential NCEP Modeling issues, and perhaps the reason why the GFS has seemingly altogether backed off on redevelopment of a significant tropical cyclone!

Your speculations/questions are great my friend. I think most of us are wondering the same things. But once again, as far as the GFS backing off altogether at the 12Z run, why blame the satellite issues? The Euro did the reverse, went from nothing to bullish from one run to another and they supposedly aren't affected. So what do we blame that on? I just posted in the models thread that these kind of sudden reversals are pretty common. I think we're expecting too much out of our very imperfect models because we hate waiting.

read what hurr speicalist told me by phone few min ago in model page

[chaser1]

Its interesting to watch the lobe of energy begin to separate and pull ENE towards S. Florida, while meanwhile new strong convection is now bursting over Eastern Yucatan "which theoretically" would help cause to lower pressure with ongoing persistent convection. If the pressure gradient over Yucatan and Central America is fairly flat, that maybe T.D 9 might just kinda of "morph" or become absorbed by an entirely newly developing area of low pressure?? In most years, we'd simply just watch all convection and energy simply get sucked up, stretched out, and pulled Northeastward along the advancing front. Whether such a redeveloped W. Caribbean low were considered the same identity as T.D. 9 or not, would be essentially academic. Such a process however, would seem to aid in pulling in, and salvaging what vorticity that T.D.9 possesses.

THIS is the reason for my prior inquiry regarding the potential NCEP Modeling issues, and perhaps the reason why the GFS has seemingly altogether backed off on redevelopment of a significant tropical cyclone!

Your speculations/questions are great my friend. I think most of us are wondering the same things. But once again, as far as the GFS backing off altogether at the 12Z run, why blame the satellite issues? The Euro did the reverse, went from nothing to bullish from one run to another and they supposedly aren't affected. So what do we blame that on? I just posted in the models thread that these kind of sudden reversals are pretty common. I think we're expecting too much out of our very imperfect models because we hate waiting.

Thanks Ozone Look, I realize a far more common scenario to play out would involve everything simply getting sucked ENE; at minimum we all plainly see that T.D. 9 has no "exoskeleton" to protect itself, is butt-hugging the coast as we speak, continues to be buffeted (not Jimmy, ) by upper level shear, and is digesting a healthy dose of Mexican Dry Air Mojito. I am not discounting the possibility of a quick & painful death for T.D. 9, in fact i'd say that's likely. All that I am saying is prior runs of the GFS had forecasted a strong upper high seemingly anchored over the area to our south, and particular forecast depictions for the various heights also depicted favorable conditions. I am simply questioning if present GFS forecast solutions are presently off kilter because of the stated issues to NCEP or whether we are simply looking at a common run to run shift in model forecasts.

If you were told that Duane Wade of the Miami Heat was going to sit on the bench for a while, I think it would be fair to ask the question....." I wonder if the outcome of those games will be affected". As for the EURO, I frankly have no idea how or what data is used or compiled, or digested in the making of its twice daily models. In fact and to be very honest, I had no idea what data or how data is assimilated by NCEP for them to create their 6 hourly GFS model forecasts. All I am saying is that the statement issued by NCEP, basically sounded like....oops, we have the sugar, eggs and cream, but for some reason no one could find them and we might have made the cake without those ingredients. That of course has nothing to do with what ingredients are used in the EURO kitchen, or whether their kitchen experienced their own sort of baking meltdown. I have no reason to doubt or assume that the Euro model was impacted by whatever was going on in NCEP's house.

[Hammy]

Center looks like it's onshore based on radar, but what's interesting is that it looks like it's accelerated slightly while the deep convection over Belize hasn't moved, so I'm wondering if the convection is beginning to suck the LLC in, and if so, a new one may form over the Caribbean in a day or two.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm sorry, I just can't take it anymore... It's from the GET GO...Not gecko!!! I thought this was a typo at first or a joke but now I think he's being serious.

[floridasun78]

GFS was modeling a cane to impact Florida from the gecko the most recent satellite problems is no excuse.

No Spiral, you are wrong. At no time did the GFS either harm, injure, or kill any innocent gecko's in the making of their forecasts, LOL.

Perhaps you are not understanding the point; T.D. 9 will weaken, strengthen, move inland and possibly fizzle out, or even become absorbed by a new area of forming low pressure. No one is suggesting that current satellite problems or the "cost of gasoline" have any impact on what is now happening or will happen to T.D. 9.

The "excuse" as you put it, that I and a couple of others are discussing, MIGHT possibly have to do with the integrity of TODAY'S RECENT & THE CURRENT accuracy of the GFS models which now, are no longer depicting a possible impact to Florida. We are questioning the validity of that mid term forecast due to the statement made by the Sr. Meteorologist over at NCEP which was posted earlier (SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE - .... HAS NOT RECEIVED A
FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS.....POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS...)

I was understanding this system from the gecko = day 1 have a look back over threads the strength of the trough was the key factor i believe the other models never penciled in and also the increasing shear in the gulf. The time frame was also ridiculous the shear to the NE of the depression over Florida and extending to the south in the early model runs was a clear indication it was a huge long shot at best.

Go's to show 57's wealth of experience is still no match for these super computers when it it comes to realtime forecasting he got it right from the gecko.

btw GFS is outstanding in the wespac.

go to models page i spoke to hurr specialist about gfs and outage

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: I'm sorry, I just can't take it anymore... It's from the GET GO...Not gecko!!! I thought this was a typo at first or a joke but now I think he's being serious.

Ok, no comment.

[tolakram]

Regardless, let's move on please.

[ozonepete]

read what hurr speicalist told me by phone few min ago in model page

I read it. thanks for posting.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="spiral"]GFS was modeling a cane to impact Florida from the gecko the most recent satellite problems is no excuse.

No Spiral, you are wrong. At no time did the GFS either harm, injure, or kill any innocent gecko's in the making of their forecasts, LOL.

Perhaps you are not understanding the point; T.D. 9 will weaken, strengthen, move inland and possibly fizzle out, or even become absorbed by a new area of forming low pressure. No one is suggesting that current satellite problems or the "cost of gasoline" have any impact on what is now happening or will happen to T.D. 9.

The "excuse" as you put it, that I and a couple of others are discussing, MIGHT possibly have to do with the integrity of TODAY'S RECENT & THE CURRENT accuracy of the GFS models which now, are no longer depicting a possible impact to Florida. We are questioning the validity of that mid term forecast due to the statement made by the Sr. Meteorologist over at NCEP which was posted earlier (SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE - .... HAS NOT RECEIVED A
FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS.....POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS...)

I was understanding this system from the gecko = day 1 have a look back over threads the strength of the trough was the key factor i believe the other models never penciled in and also the increasing shear in the gulf. The time frame was also ridiculous the shear to the NE of the depression over Florida and extending to the south in the early model runs was a clear indication it was a huge long shot at best.

Go's to show 57's wealth of experience is still no match for these super computers when it it comes to realtime forecasting he got it right from the gecko.

btw GFS is outstanding in the wespac.

go to models page i spoke to hurr specialist about gfs and outage[/quote]
yesterday someone was asking me if had special data and i said no..seems like floridasun has special.access

strange day...geckos and poor model performance based on network issues

this is a sign its time to stick a fork in this season and live to fight another day...:shock:

[floridasun78]

i live miami have their phone number of nhc their open to asking question i ask about outage how affect gfs other models

[cycloneye]

To not deviate from the topic on hand and that is Tropical Depression NINE, let's have the discussions about the sat feed outage at a thread posted at Talking Tropics forum about that topic.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116900&p=2423966#p2423966

[chaser1]

i live miami have their phone number of nhc their open to asking question i ask about outage how affect gfs other models

Thanks, Floridasun............... I went to the Models - Forum, and read what the NHC forecaster told you. Thanks for sharing.

[blp]

Yes you can see the circulation is now inland and is still moving East.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/sabancuy/sabancuy_anima.php

[ozonepete]

Yes you can see the circulation is now inland and is still moving East.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/sabancuy/sabancuy_anima.php

Thanks, blp. And from that radar we can clearly tell 3 things:

1. It has a clearly defined LLC.
2. It has banding features.
3. It's moving eastward.

[ozonepete]

lol its aussie slang don't let it do your head in.

moving on

Ha ha ha, ok. Ready to move on...

[Hammy]

I don't see this lasting across the Yucatan, I think we'll get something in the Caribbean but I think a new system may form from a combination of the remnants of this and the tail end of the trough as it moves out. Some of the model solutions have shown something along these lines for a few days.

[chaser1]

yesterday someone was asking me if had special data and i said no..seems like floridasun has special.access

strange day...geckos and poor model performance based on network issues

this is a sign its time to stick a fork in this season and live to fight another day...:shock:[/quote]



No dude Its a sign to head on over to Aruba's, grab one of their giant drinks, walk ourselves down to the end of the pier.... and just kick back and watch the clouds roll on by!

[SFLcane]

Yes you can see the circulation is now inland and is still moving East.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/sabancuy/sabancuy_anima.php

Thanks, blp. And from that radar we can clearly tell 3 things:

1. It has a clearly defined LLC.
2. It has banding features.
3. It's moving eastward.

Indeed! If it manages to keep that well defined llc things might get a bit interesting in the Caribbean. Thanks for the link Blp...