WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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Alyono
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#461 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:36 pm

could see 100 mph gusts in Manila
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#462 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:05 pm

18z Best Track didn't go down in intensity.

09W RAMMASUN 140715 1800 13.9N 121.9E WPAC 110 941
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#463 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:11 pm

Manila reporting gusts to 36 kts at 19Z.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#464 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:19 pm

Impressive video from Sorsogon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYq5Evel824
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#465 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:48 pm

Brian McNoldy created a radar loop of Rammasun approaching Manila. Manila is a little to the left of the "Q" in Quezon City.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/rammasun14/Rammasun_15Jul14_SUB.gif
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#466 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:55 pm

12Z Euro initialized Rammasun at 55 kts but has winds of 80 kts as it nears Hainan.
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#467 Postby Dave C » Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:00 pm

City to the south takaytay city, is about to get spanked, Definitely more westerly path, less time over land.
Last edited by Dave C on Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#468 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:00 pm

21:00 UTC warning.

Image
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#469 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:01 pm

Dave C wrote:City to the south is about to get spanked, Definitely more westerly path, less time over land.


Eye going to pass just south of Manila.
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#470 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:11 pm

A station near Manila reporting sustained tropical storm winds right now.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#471 Postby dhoeze » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:01 pm

Did the eye just closed out? are we still in Cat3 or Cat2? thanks so much gurus
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#472 Postby dhoeze » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:07 pm

Gurus,

Need your help. Based on your analysis, until when are we going to feel this wrath of the typhoon here in manila ?
Right now according to PAGASA, eye is Batangas, south of Metro Manila.

Please please help... apologies guys.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#473 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:12 pm

Winds should begin to decrease later this morning with improving conditions expected by the afternoon. It's moving at a pretty good clip and the windfield is fairly small. What kind of conditions are you experiencing right now?

dhoeze wrote:Gurus,

Need your help. Based on your analysis, until when are we going to feel this wrath of the typhoon?
Right now according to PAGASA, eye is Batangas, south of Metro Manila.

Please please help... apologies guys.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#474 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:15 pm

Probably Cat 2

dhoeze wrote:Did the eye just closed out? are we still in Cat3 or Cat2? thanks so much gurus
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#475 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:47 pm

almost certainly cat 1 now... and low end cat 1
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#476 Postby dhoeze » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:50 pm

Trees and roofs flying here over makati. no one can travel outside, need to provide assistance at work now. Thanks for your comment sir. really appreciate any kind of analysis on when this will improve
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#477 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:02 pm

Maybe so but JTWC will probably keep it a 2.

Alyono wrote:almost certainly cat 1 now... and low end cat 1
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#478 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:00 pm

Is it just me or do I see people walking around outside in the images I have seen? Are they crazy?
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#479 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:01 pm

00z Best Track down to 90kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140716 0000 14.2N 120.3E WPAC 90 956
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#480 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:03 pm

That is probably generous; I would guess about 75 kt personally. Still even a Cat 1 hitting a major metropolitan area is very serious.
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